Analysis: BTC Realized Price and MVRV
Determining Bottom Conditions
- MVRV stabilized above the horizontal.
- The market price has returned to above the Realized Price and stabilized.
Stabilization of the former at the horizontal line means that there are more buyers than sellers, and the selling power is so low that those in the average chain are not losing money; stabilization of the latter at the data line reflects that the cost price is already lower than the market price, which means that the pressure on the holders is greatly reduced.
Analysis: BTC Long/Short-Term Holder Supply in P/L
Determining Bottom Conditions
Short-term holders should drop to zero and then recover rapidly, so as to show a V-shaped recovery.
Long-term holders' data should also be on the rise.
Generally, bear market bottoms occur at the capitulation stage, and short-term holders are often the most severely killed in battle. Therefore, as long as the red data is followed by a rapid and significant recovery, it means the bottom has been formed, and no one will be cut again.
Analysis Method: BTC Adjusted SOPR
Determining Bottom Conditions
The data should show a clear sign of recovery.
It's better to stabilize after crossing the horizontal line.
The data looks at the last move of Bitcoin on the chain and compares it to the cost price. A rise in the data means fewer people are losing money. In the past, there have been signs of a rise after a bottom because the selling pressure gets lower after the bottom, and the average holder is in a position to make a lot of money.
Why has the market suddenly risen recently? What is the situation of the family? Please look at the chart below after analyzing the data.
First of all, I would like to summarize the On-chain Data, many of them show that the current trend is similar to the past bear market bottoming signs. We analyze the On-chain Data to get comparisons with the past data in order to find similarities as much as possible, and to know the current environment, not only to see what is happening on the chain in the short term.
Recently, the main reason for the currency market is that the expected date of the Ether merger was made public, and it was speculated to attract retail investors, at the same time, the chart showed that the Acesnding Triangle, which has been in existence for a month, was broken. From the chart analysis level, as long as it is broken and there is enough support to meet the price demand, it can go up again when the support is reached. In this case, it needs to be supported by fundamental news, that's why Ether rises so strongly first.
As for Bitcoin, I believe that it has been funded by the introduction of Ether and has risen to $23000, and the market share has just risen back to the level before the Ether explosion.
To summarize, there is nothing special about Bullish, we can't say the bottom is in sight just because of a small increase, we need more time to observe.