Data source: Glassnode
Large Accounts Realized Prices Whales Realized Prices
Calculating each Bitcoin supply at its most recent move is done by dividing the realized market capitalization by the current supply, which is often used to analyze the average cost of Bitcoin holders as it takes into account the last price of all transactions in the chain.
Glassnode releases this weekTwitter (microblogging service)It was noted that the realized price for large accounts holding 1,000 bitcoins or more is currently around $$15,800, meaning that the average cost for large accounts falls around this price. If the price of Bitcoin falls near this level, large investors may make a move.
Data Concepts
In the most basic Realized Price data, we can see that in previous bear market cycles, the bottom of the bear market has really taken shape after Bitcoin has been below its realized price for a period of time.
Glassnode's perspective is that as retail, short-term investors leave the market during these massive sell-offs, the percentage of coins held by price-insensitive long-term holders will rise as a result, though Realized Price may not be raised immediately.Because the cost of holding for the remaining believers has not changed.
Then, as long-term holders' holdings become more heavily weighted，The more the cryptocurrency price stabilizes, the more likely it is that the market will bottom out. When the next bull market comes around and retail investors come back in, the Realized Price will rise because the data calculates the average cost (higher cost) for subsequent holders of Bitcoin.
How to analyze realized prices for large accounts
This Glassnode customized data takes into account large deposits and withdrawals on the exchange, as well as holdings of 1,000 grains or more, and the analytical concepts are different from the Realized Price above. Why?
First of all, we all know that there are different ways to describe the formation of a bottom in this financial market. Some people say that "retail traders are gone and large traders are sweeping up the market" is a bottoming phenomenon, while some people say that "even the large traders are gone, no one else in the market is going to go, so it's a good time to get in".As retail investors, we won't know what the reality is, but we can synthesize the data to come up with the most likely scenario.
The realized price represents the cost price for large investors. With the bright future of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, is it possible that large investors will abandon their positions and leave the market? Yes, it is possible, but only if the general economic environment is very bad, and retail investors are stepping on people, the big investors think that the price will fall even further away from the cost price and continue to fall. Therefore, in this case, the factors to be considered are not only the cost price of the big investors, but also the general economic environment, market sentiment, currency circle development, etc.
If we just look at the cost price, at least we will know at what level Bitcoin will react strongly. The market may want to buy at the same cost as the big players, causing the price to rebound; or the market may want to leave earlier than the big players, causing the market to fall further.
To summarize, we now know where the cost price of large investors is, and the best way to know how the market will move in the future is to follow the economic development closely. Assuming that the price drops to around $15800, we will know how to react, and of course, the most important thing is to make preparations in advance, and to be responsible for our own investment and speculation strategies.
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