ETH 迫近 4800，九月降息有望？

Welcome back to Monsterblockhk's weekly report. ETH continued to perform strongly this week, with the price once approaching 4800, a high level that drove the market upward, and a collective surge in torrents, which led to a simultaneous rise in capital and sentiment. However, towards the end of the week, the rally has slowed down and short-term profit-taking has emerged, reminding us that we still need to stay calm in the midst of the boom, adjust our positions appropriately, and lock in some of our gains.

At the same time, the trend of ETF capital repatriation continues, chain activity remains high, and fear and greed indices are approaching greed. These signals show the momentum of the market's prelude to a frenzy, but also signal the inevitability of subsequent volatility and adjustments. In this issue, we will take you through a quick review of the past week's key news, data and macro dynamics to help you share the dividends of the cottage industry and keep your chips for the real "mad cow period" to come.

ETF flows are slowing down, it is prudent to leave your pockets at the right time.

According to SoSoValue, as of August 15, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a one-day net outflow of US$14.13 million, with total assets of US$151.97 billion, and the Bitcoin price closed at US$116,936, a weekly high of over US$400 million on August 8, followed by daily declines. Bitcoin price closed at US$116,936. The trend of the past week has turned from strong to weak: inflow of over US$400 million was recorded on August 8, which was the high point of the week; then it declined day by day, with about US$180 million on August 11, and less than US$100 million on August 12; although it rebounded again to over US$200 million on August 14, it turned into a net outflow on August 15, which indicated that the liquidity momentum was cooling down before the end of the week.

ETF fund flows have started to slow down at the high level, reflecting the lack of new buying momentum despite the short-term sentiment has not reversed, echoing the slowdown after the recent surge of the Wall Street Currency. As the market enters a highly volatile phase, trimming positions appropriately and switching part of the gains to stable currencies can help ensure profitability and reduce risk. Looking ahead to the next quarter, there is still room for expansion in the macro funding environment and crypto market liquidity, and the current round of adjustment may build up momentum for a subsequent offensive. However, the key now is discipline and prudence in the short-term overheating phase, so that we can move forward and backward in the future upcycle.

ETH Becomes Leveraged Capital Focus as Liquidation Scale Soars

According to the data, a total of 107,426 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling $382 million, of which $311 million was liquidated in long orders and $70.54 million in empty orders. In terms of asset distribution, ETH liquidation amounted to $169 million, becoming the largest storm center; BTC burst positions of $51.53 million, followed by SOL burst positions of $26.53 million, and other assets totaled $33.46 million, DOGE, XRP and ADA also recorded about $7-9 million each.

The largest single liquidation occurred in the BTCUSD perpetual contract, valued at $6.35 million. In this round of liquidation, the proportion of long orders was significantly higher than short orders, indicating that capital used a lot of leverage when chasing the uptrend, but suffered a heavy blow in the short-term volatility. This phenomenon echoes the gradual slowdown after the recent surge in the Wallaby currency, indicating that although market sentiment is still warm, the excessive accumulation of leverage has increased the risk of volatility.

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Sentiment falls back to neutral territory, market momentum enters a wait-and-see period

According to CMC data, as of mid-August, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was 57, in "neutral" territory, down slightly from yesterday's 59 and last week's 58, indicating a short-term cooling of sentiment. The chart shows a gradual decline in the index over the past month from 68 (greed) at the beginning of the month, accompanied by a drop in the price of Bitcoin from above $123,000 to a low of around $114,000, before bouncing back but failing to break above the previous high. Volume remained flat, with no significant increase in volume, suggesting that the market is still in a wait-and-see mode for capital inflows and outflows.

Sentiment indicators have fallen from their highs, reflecting a cooling-off phase after a series of rallies, in line with the recent slowdown of the Walloon Currency's rally. While most investors have not turned to panic, the "neutral" range implies a lack of short-term momentum, and the market is in a phase of consolidation and waiting for a new catalyst. As we approach the end of the quarter, capital rotation and cottage industries are likely to continue next quarter, but investors should pay particular attention to sentiment as a risk management tool before entering the frenzy phase. The only way to maximize returns and retain the initiative to re-enter the market in the next volatility is to take a decisive action when the index is approaching "extreme greed".

Main and Emerging Chains Attract Funds, Flows Suggest Bullishness

According to Artemis data, as of mid-August, Ethereum recorded an inflow of nearly $1 billion, but at the same time saw an outflow of more than $1.5 billion, making it the chain with the largest net outflow this week, reflecting that some funds chose to take profits at high levels. In contrast, Base led with a net inflow of over $200 million, while Polygon PoS, Arbitrum and Solana also saw significant net inflows, suggesting that the market still prefers to allocate to emerging chains with scalability and high beta characteristics, despite the outflows from the main chains. On the other hand, chains such as Unichain and OP Mainnet recorded net outflows of around US$100 million, showing signs of capital reallocation.

From a structural point of view, this week's capital flows showed a pattern of "main chain funds withdrawing and emerging chains taking over", continuing the rotation logic after the recent surge in cottage prices. The large outflow of Ether implies that some long-term funds chose to lock in their gains first, while Base and Polygon PoS still attracted funds to support the short-term heat. However, market momentum has slowed towards the end of the week, reminding investors to trim their portfolios to minimize over-exposure as the market winds down. Despite short-term retracement pressure, structural capital flows remain skewed towards the lower end of the risk curve, suggesting room for further momentum in the next quarter.

Cross-chain flows remain high as capital redistribution accelerates

According to deBridge data, Solana was once again one of the major exporters as of mid-August, with large flows going to Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base, creating the most significant cross-chain migration. Ethereum remained the central node of overall inter-chain flows, receiving large inflows from Solana and Arbitrum while sending funds to emerging chains like Base. Base continued its performance from last week, receiving steady inflows from Ethereum and Arbitrum, solidifying its position as an emerging capital hub, while Arbitrum continued to see high flows in both directions, with both large inflows and significant outflows, demonstrating that the rapid rotation of Layer 2 capital continues to be prominent.

From a structural perspective, this week's interchain flows showed a clear pattern of "main chains providing liquidity and emerging chains absorbing incremental volume", with Ethereum continuing to act as an anchor to aggregate and distribute capital, ensuring overall market stability, while Base and Arbitrum were the main drivers of the chain's heat by taking on risk-on capital through their high levels of activity, and the large outflows from Solana reflecting that some capital has chosen to cash out at the high stage, echoing the slowdown in momentum towards the end of the week. The large outflow from Solana reflects the fact that some capital has chosen to cash out at the high stage, echoing the slowing down of market momentum towards the end of the week.

Chain funding stabilizes, TVL holds above $150B

According to DefiLlama, as of August 16th, DeFi's Total Locked Position (TVL) stood at $152.335B, slightly lower than the previous week, but still firmly in the high range. Over the past 7 days, TVL reached a high in the middle of the week and then retreated at the end of the week. During the same period, the total market capitalization of the stablecoin reached $275.829B, providing liquidity support. The 24-hour trading volume of DEX and Perps remained active at $17.22B and $22.009B, indicating that the market has not yet withdrawn, and the overall trading atmosphere is still resilient.

This round of TVL uptrend echoes the recent rally in the Walloon Currency, suggesting that capital is participating in the rotation. However, the uptrend slowed down towards the end of the week, reflecting that short-term capital tends to take profits. This structure implies that the bullish mood is not fading, but rather entering a consolidation phase. The current environment is suitable for gradually trimming some of the high volatility positions to consolidate gains, while retaining liquidity for a stronger market push in the next quarter. Such a strategy will secure the advantage of the chips during the pullback and help capture the larger capital rallies to come.

Capital Rotation Slows, Higher Consolidation Breeds Healthy Correction

According to Crypto Bubbles data as of August 16, this week's market continued last week's pattern of capital rotation, with some torrents posting impressive gains, led by OKB (+102%), AERO (+25.1%), and RAY (+20.4%), and covering exchange-traded tokens, DeFi, and public chain sectors. Meanwhile, high beta assets such as CFX (-17.4%) and XMR (-16.3%) were among the top losers, indicating that structural divergence still exists. Overall, although capital is running at a high level, the uptrend has slowed down significantly before the end of the week.

This pattern suggests that the market is not withdrawing capital, but rather entering a healthy consolidation phase to absorb profit-taking from the rapid short-term rally. Historical experience has shown that after a broad double-digit rally, a pullback is often a necessary correction to the following trend. Investors may consider trimming their high volatility positions to lock in some profits while preserving cash liquidity in case of a possible technical pullback. With the end of this quarter's consolidation, capital is expected to drive a stronger uptrend in the next quarter, which will be more cost-effective.

OKX Token Breaks 100 in One Day, Buyback and Destruction Mechanisms Rising in Popularity

Recently, token buyback and destruction, as a token economic tool to strengthen the structure of supply and demand, is rapidly gaining market favor. on August 13, OKX announced the completion of the X Layer "PP Upgrade" and the simultaneous execution of a one-time destruction of 65,256,712 OKBs, with the total supply permanently locked at 21 million from now on, and the future destruction will be automated through smart contracts. In line with the positioning of OKB as the only native Gas Token in X Layer, the market reacted strongly on the same day, with OKB rising by more than 100% in a single day, reflecting capital's high recognition of the deflation model and the application scenarios on the chain. This initiative is also complemented by technology upgrades and on-chain ecosystem integration, providing multiple supports for the value of the token.

From a structural analysis, such buybacks not only directly reduce liquidity supply, but also shape long-term scarcity expectations at the psychological level, which in turn boosts investors' willingness to hold. OKX's operation is coupled with technological and application upgrades, and the buybacks are packaged as an initiative in line with the company's strategic vision, which not only provides short-term stimulus, but also has longer-term storytelling value. In the past, similar initiatives have triggered price rises and community cohesion in projects such as Coin and Lido, demonstrating the effectiveness of this mechanism in boosting market enthusiasm at specific points in time. If the sentiment continues and is coupled with macro benefits, this trend is expected to become a core element of a new round of innovation in the token economy model.

Circle Launches Arc Public Chain, Stablecoin Enters Financial Infrastructure

Reflecting the emergence of stablecoin as a core infrastructure for on-chain payments and financial applications, Circle has launched Arc, a dedicated Layer 1 public chain for stablecoin with USDC as the native Gas Token, which will focus on payments, forex, and capital markets applications, with features such as a stablecoin forex engine, sub-second settlement, and optional privacy, as well as deep integration into the Circle ecosystem. According to The Block, Circle currently accounts for US$65 billion of the total stablecoin supply of approximately US$260 billion, the second largest market share after Tether, and this move not only extends its market dominance, but is also in line with its rapid growth in Q2, which saw revenues increase by US$53% to US$658 million annually, and USDC liquidity increase by US$90% annually, further strengthening its position as the world's leading regulated stablecoin provider. This further strengthens its position as the global leader in regulated stablecoins.

From a strategic perspective, the emergence of a dedicated public chain for stablecoin responds to the current market demand for high-speed, low-cost, cross-chain interoperability and compliant payments and settlements. With the GENIUS Act coming into effect in the U.S., stablecoin has gained a federal regulatory framework, and mainstream financial and commercial applications will be more inclined to be built in a compliant environment in the future. the launch of Arc not only conforms to this trend of regulatory and technological convergence, but also echoes with Stable, Plasma, and other projects invested by Tether and others, indicating that the future on-chain financial infrastructure will be reconstructed around stablecoin as the core and become a new generation of on-chain financial infrastructure. This indicates that the future on-chain financial infrastructure may be reorganized around stable currencies, which will be the precursor of a new round of on-chain application growth.

Celebrities call for a fall the next day to add to their positions, market sentiment is changing rapidly.

Arthur Hayes sold 2,373 pieces of ETH for about $3,507 last week, cashing out about $8.32 million, and then just a week later bought it all back at over $4,150 for $10.5 million USDC, joking on social media that he would "never take a profit again". According to the data on the chain, this wave of replenishment took place against the backdrop of ETH's monthly rise from $2,600 to $4,000, with a cumulative increase of 45%, and during the same period, more than 1.035 million pieces of ETH (valued at about $4.17 billion) were absorbed by a number of organizations and unidentified whales through exchanges and OTC platforms, at an average cost of about $3,546, indicating that the capital side of the market and the market sentiment are warming up at the same time. The average cost is around USD 3,546, indicating that the capital market and market sentiment are warming up simultaneously.

This phenomenon highlights the norm of reversal in crypto-markets - while yesterday they were shouting "the end is near", today they may be covering all their positions, or even deleting their pessimistic forecasts. For investors, this roller coaster of sentiment may drive short-term price fluctuations, but long-term value is not determined by a single statement, but rather by the capital structure and macro environment. Recent signs of continued institutional build-up provide support for ETH's medium- to long-term trend; however, with the price having drastically moved away from its previous lows, risk management remains key. In this market - yesterday's panic, today's greed - instead of chasing sentiment, we should continue to implement the DCA batch layout and turn the volatility into an opportunity for asset accumulation.

Uniswap borrows DUNA's corporate shell to activate fee agreement mechanism

The Uniswap Foundation recently proposed to bring its governance structure under the framework of the Wyoming Decentralized Unincorporated Not-for-Profit Association (DUNA) and create a new legal entity called "DUNI" that would maintain the existing DAO governance structure while giving it the legal ability to contract, hire service providers and meet tax compliance. Under the proposal, the Foundation would be allocated $16.5 million worth of UNI to pay historical taxes and penalties on estimated shortfalls of $10 million, as well as to establish a legal defense fund. The legal framework is seen as a pre-condition for the initiation of the protocol fee switch, which allows the DAO to bring a portion of the liquidity provider (LP) fee into the treasury, creating a stable source of long-term capital utilization. This may make Uniswap the largest decentralized organization to adopt the DUNA framework and provide legal protection for its governance activities.

While maintaining the spirit of decentralization, Uniswap is opening up new avenues for agreement revenue through compliance and institutionalization. The agreement fee mechanism, if implemented, will change the financial structure of DAOs, reduce reliance on external fundraising, and potentially increase the intrinsic value of UNI tokens. However, the DUNA framework prohibits the distribution of dividends to members, which means that revenues from the agreement will flow back into development, operation and ecosystem construction to strengthen the competitiveness of the platform. While other agreements, such as LayerZero and Yuga Labs, are seeing a trend towards re-centralization, Uniswap's choice to protect decentralized decision-making with a legal wrapper, and to use this as a basis for opening up a fee structure, reflects DeFi's move from pure technological innovation to maturity with a strong focus on both governance and financial structure.

Chainlink and ICE Collaboration: Accelerating the Real-World Asset Chaining Process

Chainlink announced a partnership with international financial giant Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to bring high-quality foreign exchange and precious metals derivative data to Chainlink, the operator of key markets such as the New York Stock Exchange, whose FX rates and precious metals prices have long been relied upon by banks, asset managers, and institutions around the world. This partnership brings ICE Consolidated Feed's multi-asset class data into the Chainlink Data Streams, which further enhances its data standards, provides the Chainlink market with data quality that meets the stringent requirements of traditional capital markets, and opens up new horizons for institutional-level applications.

This move not only expands Chainlink's deep integration with real-world financial infrastructure, but also lays the groundwork for the future mainstreaming of on-chain finance. With market demand for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) expected to reach $30.1 trillion, blockchain infrastructures with reliable, low-latency, and tamper-resistant data will have a significant head start in the new round of financial competition. Chainlink's partnership with ICE means that more traditional financial players will be attracted to the Web3 ecosystem, promoting the seamless connection between the on-chain and off-chain markets, and is expected to become one of the core drivers of the global blockchain economy.

Macro News

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks May Become a Market Catalyst

Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a summit in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine. According to White House officials, although the meeting is a "preliminary exchange", the geopolitical implications cannot be ignored. In the past, several rounds of Russia-Ukraine negotiations failed to achieve substantive peace, but the leaders of the two countries intend to minimize conflict through diplomatic negotiations, highlighting the importance that the international community attaches to situation control and risk management.

Historically, the U.S.-Russian connection to Alaska and its strategic position make this summit symbolic, suggesting that the two sides may be interested in exploring compromises on a limited scale. In the short term, this could reduce excessive fear of extreme military risk and create conditions for capital to flow into riskier assets. From a market perspective, a signal of peace could be seen as a catalyst for sentiment. If a concrete agreement is reached in the talks, even if the war is not completely ended, investor confidence will be boosted, leading to a reallocation of capital to crypto and high-yield assets. Recent trading volumes in stablecoins and tokenized stocks suggest that inflows could accelerate if geopolitical tensions ease. In other words, the peace process is not only politically significant, but also highlights the critical impact of market sentiment and expectations on prices.

U.S. 401(k) Reform: An Opportunity to Accelerate the Entry of Huge Retirement Funds into Crypto Markets

President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the Department of Labor to reevaluate restrictions on alternative assets in defined contribution plans such as 401(k)s, opening the door for cryptocurrencies to be included in retirement accounts for the first time. As of the first quarter of 2025, total retirement assets in the U.S. amounted to $43.4 trillion, of which defined contribution plans accounted for more than $12 trillion, with 401(k)s alone accounting for $8.7 trillion, according to Bitwise's Investment Director, who noted that the policy could introduce "slow, steady, and consistent" buying into the crypto market, which is likely to result in higher returns and lower volatility over the long term.

If properly implemented, the policy is expected to unlock long-term capital in the order of several trillion dollars, creating a solid inflow of capital that will enhance market depth and attract the construction of more compliant infrastructure. However, the details of implementation will be critical, including the scope of assets that can be included, custody arrangements and risk control mechanisms, etc. If not handled correctly, it could lead to political and financial backlash. In the long term, this policy may be an important milestone in the institutionalization of crypto assets, but in the short term, the market will need to balance regulatory compliance with capital expansion to avoid repeating the mistakes of traditional alternatives such as high fees and price manipulation.

Chained Data Analysis:

Ether Leads the Way, Torrent Coins May Take Over

The price of Ether has risen sharply from the April low of about $1.5K to the current $4.3K, a record high since December 2021, and is only 12.5% away from the all-time high of $4.8K. The chart shows that since the end of the "contraction period" in 2024 and the beginning of the "recovery period", the retreat of ETH's price has continued to narrow, reflecting that the market's pressure has significantly improved. Historically, ETH has been a bellwether for the cryptocurrency market, and its strength has often triggered the flow of capital along the risk curve to higher-risk assets. The current price trend is highly in line with the market sentiment, creating conditions for an uptick in the cryptocurrency market.

The rapid upward movement of ETH has entered a high volatility phase. If the cottage currency starts to make up for the increase as it has historically done, the increase may be concentrated in the short term, and the timing of locking in profits will be extremely critical at that time. Investors must remain disciplined, especially before converting their positions to stable currencies, as book returns are not equal to actual returns. If the time to cash out is missed, volatility can quickly erode capital and even wipe out prior profits. At this pace, the core of the strategy is not to blindly chase the highs, but to exit the market at the peak of liquidity and sentiment to ensure the safety of the capital and the return in the pocket.

Mainstream Currencies Rise as Capital Rotation Accelerates

The seven-day gain data shows that Ether, XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all recorded significant gains recently, with ETH and DOGE both up +25.5%, and XRP and SOL up +16.2% and +13.6%, respectively. This reflects the fact that capital is not concentrated in a single asset, but rather is being pushed across the board along the risk curve. Such a broad-based rally usually occurs when market liquidity is abundant and risk appetite is high, indicating that speculative sentiment is on the rise across the board.

The rapid rotation of capital among a number of large cottage currencies may signal the start of a "bullish cottage season", or it may simply be the peak of short-term sentiment speculation. Historical experience shows that if the rally continues, capital may flow into smaller caps, amplifying volatility and room for gains; however, if the market absorbs the gains in the short term, the pullback will be just as quick and deep. Only time will tell if the bull market continues to fester, or if it is reflected in prices in advance. In this environment, capital management and risk control will be key to maximizing profits.

ETH Futures Interest Hits New Highs as Leverage Sentiment Enters Frenzy

Ethereum futures open interest at Binance broke through an all-time high of $12.2 billion, while the price also surged to $4,640, reflecting a highly leveraged and exuberant market. The chart shows that since mid-June, open interest and prices have risen in tandem and at an accelerated pace, suggesting that new capital has been flowing into long positions. Behind this dynamic are structural factors such as deep liquidity, low transaction costs, an abundance of stable currencies, and the rapid rotation of funds between spot and derivatives, which have sustained the expansion of leverage.

However, the current uptrend is more FOMO-driven and market sensitivity has increased significantly, triggering a chain of long positions in the event of negative news or liquidity contraction. If FOMO remains in the low to mid range and spot demand continues to absorb the pullback, the trend is likely to continue; however, if FOMO continues to climb and contracts move ahead of spot and are accompanied by congested positions, the chances of a sharp decline triggered by long term pressure will be rapidly magnified. At this point, judging whether the macro environment (e.g. interest rate cut cycle) can support the current long pattern will be the key to gauge whether this wave of market can be transformed into a structural bull market.

Bitcoin's Market Share Plummets, Is Cottage Season Coming?

Bitcoin's market share has fallen significantly over the past two months from 65% to about 59%, suggesting that market capital is shifting assets towards the riskier cottage currency space. The orange line in the chart has fallen sharply from its high in June and continued to fall until August, decoupling from the black price curve, implying that the price has stabilized but there has been a structural change in the distribution of capital. The 30-day rate of change in the blue area has also been in negative territory for a long time, reflecting the continuity of the outflow rather than short-term volatility.

This capital rotation is a typical downward shift in the risk curve. Investors seeking higher returns in a highly leveraged and volatile environment switched to cottage currencies, exacerbating the upside and downside of non-mainstream assets. This not only creates opportunities for short-term trading, but also lays the groundwork for structural risks. For participants, understanding the direction of capital flows and market share changes means balancing the temptation of high returns from fake currencies with the risk of potential pullbacks, or they will be eliminated from the market in the next wave of volatility.

Market leverage increases as volatility nears critical point

In the last week, total open positions in the major torrents have surpassed an all-time high of $47 billion, indicating a significant increase in the level of leverage in the market. The chart shows that open positions have been rising since July 2025 and hit a new high in mid-August, with Ether being the most heavily leveraged, complemented by simultaneous increases in SOL, XRP and DOGE, showing a multi-layered stacking effect. Such a dense leverage stack makes the market more susceptible to a chain closing effect when prices fluctuate sharply.

Leverage accumulation in the current environment can either amplify upside momentum or accelerate downside kills, and the market has entered a highly reflexive and fragile state. The real purpose of volatility is to eliminate traders with unstable mindsets and weak position management. For position holders, choosing to close out their positions when they are profitable or preparing for the potentially dramatic market conditions of the next quarter will be the key to determining profit and loss. When leverage and sentiment overlap, it's almost a matter of time before the next big move comes, and whether or not you can survive the shock will be a test of patience and discipline.

Conclusion

The breakout of ETH and the popularity of torrents have confirmed our previous judgment that "capital flows are about to shift". If you've pocketed some money during this surge, you're in an ideal position to get in and get out. But if you're still completely immersed in the excitement of the market, this may be a good time to review your position ratios and risk tolerance.

Thank you for reading this far. The real bull run is not yet in full swing. When the indicators are further out of balance and sentiment goes wild, it's time to think carefully about "when to get out". The market that follows may come to a climax sooner than you expect ...... and how you pace yourself before the frenzy will be the difference between success and failure.

If you've learned something from this week's update, or if you've learned more about the market, feel free to follow us on Monsterblockhk! Twitter and join our Telegram GroupsWe will be able to share and discuss the next wave of opportunities!

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