多頭屠殺空軍！比特幣重返十萬、以太幣強勢回歸

This week, the crypto market has completely flipped, with the shorts suffering a bloodbath and the bulls making a strong comeback. Bitcoin surpassed the US$100,000 barrier, and spot ETFs saw net inflows of more than US$600 million in a single week, hitting a new high in recent months, as institutional confidence fully recovered. Ether chain capital returned to the main stage, leading the rise of blue-chip assets, and the market entered into a FOMO frenzy as fanaticism and high-beta currencies flew in tandem. From the wave of short liquidation to the surge of greed index, from the giant whale sucking in funds against the trend to the LTH increasing its position again, the data and sentiment signals on the chain intertwined to create a prelude to a bullish counterattack. Now, let's review this week's key dynamics and market trends, and together we will dismantle the deep-seated driving force behind this uptrend!

Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflows Surpass $600 Million in One Week, Helping BTC Surpass 100K Mark

Bitcoin spot ETF funds returned strongly this week, injecting key momentum into the market. According to Coinglass data, as of May 9, total net inflows into the BTC Spot ETF exceeded $600 million, the strongest weekly performance since mid-March. As seen in the chart, the green bar has expanded significantly since the beginning of May, and single-day inflows have repeatedly exceeded $100 million. The pace of capital influx has been synchronized with the uptrend in Bitcoin price, which ultimately pushed BTC to break through the psychological barrier of $100,000, hitting a new all-time high. The return of this wave of capital not only reflects the rebound of institutional investors' confidence, but also may be closely related to the recent improvement in the overall performance of risky assets, as well as the market's expectation that the macro-economy will turn to relaxation. On a macro level, ETF flows and BTC prices are once again highly positively correlated, indicating that spot ETFs have regained their important position in leading the market rhythm.

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Bitcoin Short Orders Account for Nearly 40% of 24-Hour Liquidation Surpassing $1 Billion!

With the strong return of ETF funds and the breakthrough in price, the market chain reaction has been triggered quickly. Short positions were the first to bear the brunt of the unprecedented liquidation pressure. According to the Coinglass Outbreak Heat Map, the total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours reached US$1.06 billion, a rare high in recent days. Among them, Bitcoin liquidation amounted to US$375 million in a single day, and ETH also saw a huge liquidation of US$309 million, which together accounted for nearly 70% of the total liquidation. The liquidation mainly came from the short position, reflecting the market in the breakthrough pressure level, the short army full collapse. A large number of short positions were forced to close, further accelerating the price rise, injecting a new round of strong fuel for the bulls. If the multi-party offensive continues to heat up, we can't rule out the possibility of triggering a larger-scale serial liquidation of short orders in the coming days, creating incentives for a short-term surge.

Greed Index reaches 'Greedy' again after three months as market heats up

Sentiment has been completely ignited by a combination of strong capital flows and the defeat of the short-sellers. According to the latest data from Alternative.me, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index officially returned to the "greedy" zone today, rising to 73 for the first time in three months, signaling a general return to risk appetite and confidence. However, the rise in sentiment also carries with it the potential risk of overheating. History has shown that when the greed index rises above 60 and stays high for a long period of time, market volatility tends to rise, and the risk of a short-term correction cannot be ignored. Therefore, while enjoying the current dividends, investors are advised to start reviewing their position allocation appropriately and lock in profits in batches to prepare for possible shocks or pullbacks.

Capital Returns to the Main Chain! Ether Chain Net Inflows King, Berachain Sold Off in Profit Tide

Along with increased greed and price breakouts, chain data also shows that capital is returning to the main chain. According to Artemis data, the Ether chain saw $590 million in inflows and $430 million outflows this week, with net inflows topping the charts and absorbing the market's mainstay. This return of capital is closely related to the return of ETH to the $2,000 mark, indicating that the main chain is back in business. Meanwhile, emerging chains such as Arbitrum (Hyperliquid), Sei, and Base also continued to absorb funds, reflecting that funds are striking a balance between the main chain and high beta bets. On the other hand, overheated chains such as Berachain, Polygon PoS and OP Mainnet are experiencing profit-taking, with Berachain seeing a net outflow of more than $100 million this week. Overall, capital on the chain is shifting from defense to proactive deployment, building momentum for the next wave of market upturn.

ETH Leads Blue Chip Rally, PENGU Rises 31% Strongly

This capital and narrative boom was quickly reflected in the performance of the currencies. This week, the market continued its strong rebound pattern, with most currencies rising across the board, and the Crypto Bubbles chart almost in the green, demonstrating strong sentiment recovery and capital return. ETH (+19.2%) led the blue-chip assets, reflecting that the main chain story is recognized again. On the other hand, AI and cryptocurrency sectors exploded again, with VIRTUAL (+22.9%), PEPE (+23.5%), EOS (+21.3%), TAO (+17.8%), and AAVE (+16.6%) performing brilliantly, attracting a rush of short-term capital. PENGU (+31.3%), a rising star in the FMCG industry, has been the most popular and eye-catching performer.

Although the overall sentiment is optimistic this week, we still need to be aware of the risk of rotation and retracement. Some assets such as OP (-5.4%), IMX (-4.3%), and RAY (-3.7%) corrected, reminding us that the rebound is not likely to be a straight line upward, and that there will still be pressure for short-term oscillations. Overall, the market is in a stage of optimism and FOMO sentiment is heating up fast. Investors are advised to stop their profits in batches and lock in their profits in a timely manner, so as to enjoy the market while preparing for a potential pullback.

Zerebro co-founder Jeffy Yu rumored to have "directed his own story" to escape blackmail and pressure.

The news of Zerebro co-founder Jeffy Yu's suspected suicide sent shockwaves through the crypto community, to the point that Legacy, a well-known news site, published his obituary (which was later taken down). However, as the community digs deeper and evidence comes to light, there are more and more indications that he is not actually dead, but rather has chosen to "fake his own death" in an attempt to escape the pressures and threats. Behind the glamor of this 22-year-old genius, who was admitted to Stanford at age 15 and founded a project with a market capitalization of more than $800 million at age 21, he may have faced unimaginable emotional stress and safety concerns.

In a letter suspected to be written by him, it was revealed that he had been subjected to long-term blackmail, threats, and privacy leaks from his ex-partner and unknown sources, and that under extreme pressure, he chose to fake his death and devote himself to an anonymous life of music, far away from financial anxieties and threats to his life. This incident is not only a moral controversy, but also reflects the fragile reality of crypto-entrepreneurs under the spotlight, and makes people re-examine the psychological price behind "success". While the world only sees the glory and talent of a young entrepreneur, it overlooks the loneliness and fear he endures as a human being.

Arizona Becomes First U.S. Bitcoin Reserve State, Crypto Integrated Into National Asset Allocation

And beyond the human shock, crypto policy is making historic progress. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs officially signed Bill 2749, announcing the establishment of a state-led Bitcoin and Digital Asset Reserve Fund, making it the second state in the U.S. to include crypto assets as a national fiscal tool after New Hampshire. According to the bill, the reserve program will be managed by the state's finance department and will include the proceeds of airdrops, pledge proceeds, and unclaimed assets, which will be returned to the fund if they are unclaimed within three years.

More importantly, these assets will be able to be pledged by qualified institutions to receive a return, further realizing the milestone of "crypto assets entering the national balance sheet". This policy heralds the beginning of a new era - crypto is no longer just a speculative target, but has officially entered the government's reserve asset structure, adding another heavyweight endorsement for Bitcoin's move towards "digital gold" status.

Virtuals Genesis update kicks off: Virgen Points to set off second wave of AI craze?

With the government on board, there's a new round of buzz in the marketplace - the Genesis update from Virtuals Protocol is quickly attracting attention, and Virtuals Protocol has announced the official launch of the Genesis update, with a focus on the new Virgen The focus is on the new Virgen Points mechanism - a system of pre-sold points for platform contributions. Virgen Points, which are accumulated by holding, trading, and pledging coins, will also serve as a key ticket to accessing the AI Agents ecosystem in the future. since the launch of Genesis, many of the tokens in the pre-sale have seen impressive increases ranging from 10 to 100 times, attracting a great deal of attention from the market.

Genesis was seen as the trigger for the "second wave of the 100-fold boom" when the AI concept was in full swing, but while the market is rapidly heating up, the risk of overheating and bubbles is also gradually accumulating. However, while the market is rapidly heating up, the risk of overheating and bubbles is also accumulating. With the proliferation of ex-ecosystems, the market is likely to reach an irrational climax if over-leveraging and chasing the market are added to the mix. Therefore, while chasing high returns, investors should also plan their participation carefully to avoid becoming a receiver at the high end of the market.Genesis is an opportunity, but also a risk amplifier.

BSC User Quick Check: $Jager Airdrop Hot Claims, Users Have Already Claimed More Than 2500Us

In addition to the new agreement, airdrops are also quietly accumulating in Alpha: BSC Ecology has recently seen an unmissable bonanza. $Jager, BSC Ecology's recent hotly-anticipated airdrop event, has entered its countdown phase, with around 25% airdrops currently being claimed. According to the official information, all users who have used BSC wallet may be eligible. One of the users, Dove, has successfully claimed more than $2,500, which attracted a lot of attention from the community. This airdrop has become one of the most talked about low-threshold income opportunities in recent times.

This incident also reminds us that in the crypto world, "information acumen" is an asset in itself. In the face of short but high-value airdrop windows, the only way to grasp a potential alpha is to proactively inquire and act in a timely manner, and what you miss out on is not just an airdrop, but also an opportunity to establish a connection with a new project in advance and gain low-cost participation rights.

Trump family expands its reach, brings Pakistan to boost crypto-finance emerging markets

At the same time, heavyweights in the cryptocurrency industry are also injecting strong confidence into the market with key predictions. In an interview with Rug Radio, CZ, the founder of CoinSafe, emphasized that spot Bitcoin ETFs are changing the structure of the market and could push the price of Bitcoin to $500,000-$1 million. ETFs have opened the floodgates for traditional capital, and the fact that the majority of U.S. capital comes from institutions will continue to give Bitcoin momentum," he said. He believes that this wave of "mainstream" capitalization will continue. He believes this bull market, driven by "mainstream capitalization," is redefining the rules of the game in the crypto market.

He also pointed out that the U.S. policy stance has changed dramatically, with a pro-crypto president and policy environment that has instilled new confidence in BTC. "The U.S. government is smart enough to know that buying Bitcoin is a wise choice, and other countries will follow suit," he said. However, with the optimistic price expectation, retail investors should still be rational and not chase the high price blindly. As CZ said, "Retail investors have had 15 years to buy Bitcoin, and if they only want to get in now, it's their choice". Being calm is the biggest advantage of traversing the bulls and bears.

21million.com: a renewed call for Bitcoin's beginnings

In the midst of the influx of institutional funding and mainstreaming, a project to return to the roots of Bitcoin is quietly gaining momentum, reminding us not to forget our original beliefs. Bitcoin OG Charlie Shrem has rekindled the memories of the old school with the launch of 21million.com - a simple faucet site that allows users to easily earn small amounts of Bitcoin through interaction, recreating the early days of BTC's popularity. Inspired by the free taps of 2010, when you could get 5 Bitcoins for solving a verification code, Shrem hopes to evoke the original spirit of decentralization and fair distribution of Bitcoin through the AI-accelerated development of this symbolic platform. In today's market environment filled with financialization, leverage, and institutional arbitrage, such a project is like a breath of fresh air, reminding us that the value of Bitcoin is not just the price, but also the belief and legacy.

Macro News

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time this month at 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected by the market. Chairman Powell reiterated his stance of "wait and see, be prudent, and do not act hastily" at the post-meeting press conference, indicating that policymakers still need more data to determine whether to shift to easing in the face of the dual pressures of inflation and economic slowdown. In terms of data, the U.S. core PCE annual growth rate fell to 2.6% in March, and the total PCE was 2.3%, which is slightly cooler but still a long way from the inflation target of 2%.

Meanwhile, the savings rate slipped to 3.9%, reflecting that the US consumer spending momentum is still strong, but there is a risk of a further slowdown. As for the labor market, the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2% in April, which is superficially healthy, but the number of long-term unemployed people rose to 1.7 million, accounting for more than 23% of the total unemployed population, and structural pressure emerged. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for blacks and Latinos is high, and the overall labor force participation rate has yet to rebound significantly, indicating that the momentum of the boom is gradually cooling down.

While the macro atmosphere is neutral, geopolitical and diplomatic news is becoming a new focus for the market. Chinese officials confirmed this week that Vice Premier He Lifeng will travel to Switzerland from May 9-12 for high-level economic and trade talks with U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, a trip that is seen as an important weather vane to see if China and the U.S. are shifting their trade policies. On the eve of the consultations, the U.S. side has taken the lead in releasing signals of easing - according to several foreign media reports, the U.S. has lowered tariffs on some Chinese imports from as high as 1,45% to 80%, which is interpreted by the market as an attempt to create a favorable atmosphere for the bilateral talks and to show a certain degree of willingness to make compromises.

Nevertheless, China's Ministry of Commerce emphasized that the negotiations must be based on the core principles of "mutual respect, mutual benefit, and equality," and continued to criticize the U.S. for its long-standing use of tariffs and export controls to undermine the global economic order. If positive progress is made in the negotiations, it will undoubtedly cool down the tense US-China economic and trade relations in recent years and further boost market sentiment in risky assets. On the other hand, if the dialogue breaks down or reaches an impasse, it may reignite risk aversion and trigger a new round of adjustment pressure in global markets.

However, while the market is focusing on US-China relations, geopolitical risks in South Asia have hit the market. Early Wednesday morning, the Indian military attacked nine targets in the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region, killing at least 8 people and injuring 25 others. Pakistan immediately launched a counterattack, claiming to have shot down five Indian warplanes and detained some Indian soldiers, and the conflict between the two sides escalated rapidly. Prime Minister Sharif criticized the move as a "naked act of war" and announced a 48-hour closure of national airspace. This unexpected conflict has plunged the South Asian region into a high degree of uncertainty, and the market's concern over the oil supply chain and regional security risks has rapidly escalated, becoming one of the biggest external variables for risky assets in the short term.

Chained Data Analysis:

BTC market share approaches 70%! Is cottage season here?

According to the latest charts from TradingView, BTC Dominance has risen to a new four-year high of 65% and is approaching the historically critical 70% resistance zone. This technical position has proved to be a watershed for market capitalization style shifts over the past few weeks. Whether it's a shift from Bitcoin to Torrent or a further shift back to Bitcoin dominance, it is an important precursor to the market's movement. When market share approaches a high level, it usually signals a concentration of capital, a rise in risk aversion, and with it, a turning point in the redistribution of capital. It's worth noting that despite Bitcoin's rising market share, the fundamentals of the crypto market as a whole are actually more robust than at any time in history. With the successful launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, regulatory clarity in the U.S. (e.g., the progress of the FIT21 Act), the RWA ecosystem beginning to enter the mainstream, and a steady flow of institutional capital, the market structure is not what it used to be. However, even with all this support, the key to a full-blown round of capital inflows will depend on two major variables: first, the receding of macro-environmental noise, such as easing US-China relations or cooling geopolitical risks; and second, the Federal Reserve entering a cycle of interest rate cuts, which will release a larger amount of global liquidity and provide momentum for risky assets. Against this backdrop, if BTC's market share fails to break through 70% and is instead blocked here, it could mean that capital is expected to start spilling over into the cryptocurrency space, triggering another wave of volatility. On the other hand, if the breakout is successful, it is feared that the Walled Currency will continue to be under pressure, while Bitcoin will further consolidate its absolute dominance. This is the value of on-chain data: it allows us to look beneath the surface and see hidden capital movements and potential turning points in the market structure.

Faith Plus: Ether Supporters Raise Nearly 30%

Following up on the analysis of the possible change in capital style above, if the market shifts from Bitcoin to other assets, Ether is undoubtedly one of the most eye-catching targets. Despite the continued weakness of ETH, there are still a group of high-conviction investors in the market who not only did not leave the market with losses, but also increased their stakes against the trend, demonstrating their strong belief in the long-term value of Ether. According to CryptoQuant data, the address that has never transferred ETH held 15.5356M ETH on March 10th, and on May 3rd, the position rose to 19.0378M ETH, with a cumulative increase of +22.54%, nearly 30%, an astonishing margin of absorption. Instead of rising, the ETH price was under pressure due to ETF delays, macro interest rate risk, and slowing activity on the L2 chain. However, these "smart money" addresses still chose to take positions, reflecting a high degree of consensus on the long-term vision for Ether. This counter-trend fundraising phenomenon is a strong bottom signal for the ETH market, which means that although the price has not stopped falling, the underlying capital is rapidly flowing from short-term panicists to long-term believers. Once the market environment warms up, these accumulated chips will become the key momentum for a rebound. Once again, the data on the chain shows that what really drives the market is not sentiment, but rather the continuous flow of capital and redistribution of chips behind it.

Although rising, but still short: capital rate turned negative, retailers crazy short, giant whales against the trend to absorb

Similar to the Ether market, Bitcoin has recently seen a divergence in capital and sentiment. Although the price has rebounded to around $97,000, retail sentiment is extremely pessimistic. According to CryptoQuant, Binance's Bitcoin funding rate has fallen to -0.008%, the lowest level since September 2024, reflecting the high level of short interest in the market. This means that despite the price recovery, there is still a large number of leveraged shorts actively deployed in the market, which is a clear deviation from the actual trend. This scenario is very similar to that of September 2024, when rates also turned extremely negative, ultimately triggering a massive short squeeze that drove a rapid rebound in prices. A similar phenomenon is now emerging. According to the data on the chain, on May 1 and 2 alone, more than $300 million of Bitcoin flowed out of the exchanges, indicating that institutions and giant whales are quietly absorbing chips. When the triple divergence of "rising prices × negative rates × large outflows" occurs at the same time, it often means that the market is about to undergo a structural reversal. At this point in time, the market is in a typical situation of "retail sellers selling and giant whales buying", which sets the stage for a possible sharp shortfall in the future.

MVRV Measured Average has successfully rebounded and is approaching a critical pressure zone, still need to be cautious of macro risk interference

Technicals and on-chain valuation indicators also provide an important reference when looking at capital distribution and leverage structure. According to on-chain data provided by Glassnode, Bitcoin's current correction has touched the long-term average of the MVRV Ratio (~1.74), a historical support line that is once again showing strong support, much like the September 2024 trend following the Japanese Yen interest rate unwinding storm. MVRV has now bounced off this support and is moving closer to the pressure zone created by the +1 standard deviation (~2.57). It is worth noting that historically, this area has been an overheated market with profit-taking, so investors should watch carefully for further developments. If the indicator continues to climb into this zone and fails to break out, it could trigger another consolidation or even a pullback. However, if it is catalyzed by macro bullishness, it may break through the pressure zone and start a new bullish trend. However, while MVRV is showing a technical rebound, the uncertainty of the macro environment should not be ignored. Rising US-China tariff war, rising US bond yields and high VIX volatility could put pressure on market risk appetite. Therefore, although MVRV has stabilized, we should be wary of the risk of a retest if it fails to stabilize above 2.0. Overall, the market is now at the critical intersection of "rebound in progress, pressure zone approaching, and macro uncertainty", and the subsequent trend will rely heavily on the synchronization of technical breakthroughs and policy news.

Investors return to profit-taking as fears subside

In addition to the technical rebound in MVRV, overall investor sentiment can also be observed in the profitability of the supply chain. As much as 88% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, which means that the majority of holders are on the surplus side, while only a few who bought at the December 2024-February 2025 highs (around $95K~$100K) are still losing money.

Such a structure has a stabilizing effect on market psychology and means that the likelihood of large-scale panic selling in the near term is significantly reduced. In fact, we can observe from the chart that the Supply in Profitability Percentage has recently bounced up from its long-term average (~75%), echoing the healthy post-correction stabilization reflected in the MVRV Ratio. This improved supply structure not only helps rebuild investor confidence, but also provides a stable psychological foundation for the market's subsequent upturn. When most people are making money, they are more willing to hold or add to their positions on the low side rather than sell at a stop loss, thus creating a positive cycle.

Long-term holders' replenishment trend is obvious, and market confidence is gradually recovering.

Further supporting the improved sentiment is the change in behavior from long term holders (LTH). Unlike short-term speculative funds, LTH has not seen large-scale selling after the price correction, but has instead actively covered its positions. According to the data, since the price lows, LTH positions have risen by more than 254,000 BTC, bringing the total position to nearly 14.55M BTC, showing a steady upward trend.

What is more noteworthy is that a large number of the newly added positions into LTH were actually purchased in the range above $95,000, indicating that even though they entered the market at the historical high level, investors are still inclined to hold on to it for the long term, reflecting a high degree of confidence in the future market. This is echoed by macro positive factors such as net inflows of ETFs, slowing inflation and expected rate cuts, which together form the basis of the current capital stability in the market. Therefore, the cumulative behavior of LTH is no longer just a single indicator, but a concrete reflection of the overall market rebuilding its value perception and asset allocation logic towards the long term. This has far-reaching significance for the change in capital style and subsequent price support.

Potential Pressure Under Warming Sentiment: Long-Term Holders Approaching Profit-Taking Tipping Points

However, as confidence in the market gradually recovers, we need to be wary of the potential risk of selling pressure. According to Glassnode, the average unrealized profit on LTH is now close to 350%, which corresponds to a price of around $99.9K, a value that has historically been the threshold at which long-term holders begin to realize profits in tranches, releasing selling pressure. This means that although long-term holders are still showing willingness to hold, a wave of profit-taking could be triggered if the price approaches or even breaks $99K again. Especially when ETF inflows are still volatile and the macro environment is not yet fully stabilized, the market needs stronger buying momentum to take up the potential selling pressure in order to maintain the current rebound tempo. Therefore, although the current sentiment is positive, we need to rationally assess whether the market is approaching the LTH's psychological profit point. After all, market volatility tends to intensify at key turning points where optimism and selling pressure coexist, and advance planning and risk control will be the key issues ahead.

$95k-$98k Critical Resistance Zone: Pressure Causes and Breakout Conditions

As the price of Bitcoin gradually rallies and approaches the $95K-$98K area, the market enters a critical zone where technical and psychological pressures are highly overlapping. This price zone is not only a round number psychological threshold, but also contains a large amount of chain costs and potential loss-making capital, which has become a major resistance zone for the current rebound. According to the URPD (Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution) chart, there is a significant increase in supply density in the $95K-$98K area, which indicates that a large number of investors have opened positions at this price level and are still in unrealized losses. These short- to medium-term holders at break-even levels will most likely choose to stop or take profits when the price rises closer to cost, creating "unwinding pressure".

At the same time, the potential profit-taking pressure on long-term holders (LTH) is approaching a high-risk threshold. The average unrealized profit of LTH is now approaching 350%, a common trigger zone for batch shipments in historical data, which also happens to fall around $95K-$98K. In other words, short-term unwinding pressure and long-term profit-taking pressure overlap to form a "double selling pressure" structure in this area, making it a testing ground for Bitcoin bulls to make another push. However, if the market can break through and stabilize above $98K, it will enter the upper supply thinning zone (especially above $100K), which means that most of the historical hedging chips have been absorbed and the pressure has been significantly reduced, paving the way for the price to challenge new record highs or even make a new top.

As the crypto market matures, the ability to disentangle the behavioral drivers behind key technical levels from a chain perspective will become an indispensable advantage in future investment decisions. At the moment, the market is standing at this pressure point, waiting for a breakout or retracement signal to become clear.

Conclusion:

This week, the market turned to a strong counterattack, with prices hitting new highs, capital return accelerating, and sentiment warming up significantly, as the bulls and whales entered a fierce turning point. Bitcoin successfully broke through the US$100,000 barrier, funds on the ethereum chain returned to the team, and the net inflow of spot ETFs was synchronized with the giant whale's counter-trend fund-raising, so the bullish atmosphere is heating up rapidly. However, the key pressure zone between $95K and $98K has not yet been breached, and the potential counter-pressure from long-term holders' profitability thresholds and macro noise reminds us that risk control is still crucial despite the strong market. The next key is whether we can stabilize the rhythm and make calm judgments between optimism and rationality. We at Monsterblockhk will continue to be at the forefront, breaking down the data and analyzing the market dynamics for you. Next week at the same time, let's get to grips with the flow of capital and the pulse of sentiment, and grasp every dark tide and critical turn.

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