創高即回調，資金逆流輪動！ETF 吸金破表、山寨敘事回暖

This week, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, only to fall back quickly within a few hours, in a familiar "highs-as-corrections" scenario. Overheated leverage was liquidated in a wave of 24-hour bursts of close to $300 million, sentiment dropped, and the index cooled. However, while the market is being cleansed of fickle chips, ETFs are bucking the trend and attracting more than 2 billion dollars of gold. Organizations have voted with their money and are optimistic about BTC as a dual allocation tool for hedging and growth. The capital rotation on the chain continues, with Injective taking the top spot, Solana becoming the core channel for cross-chain liquidity, and strong narrative currencies taking the lead in the rally, the rhythm of capital recovery is quietly brewing. Now, let's break down this post-high shock wave, analyze the direction of capital, sentiment changes and chain structure, and grasp the pulse of the next market starting point.

Spot ETFs saw strong net inflows and a turnaround in capital momentum

According to SoSoValue, as of May 23rd, Bitcoin cash ETF recorded a net inflow of US$210 million in a single day, with a total inflow of more than US$2 billion in the past seven days, and the highest one-day inflow in recent months on May 22nd, which was close to US$900 million. Total asset size also rose to a high of US$131.39 billion this week, and then fell back slightly, but the overall trend is stable but rising, and the ETF fund flows are highly consistent with the price curve.

The strong inflow of ETFs reflects investors' recognition of Bitcoin's dual role as a hedge and a value-add. Amidst the sharp correction in US stocks and rising macro uncertainties, institutional funds have chosen to increase their positions in Bitcoin as a hedge and growth allocation in their asset portfolios, and the inflow of ETFs has become an important indicator of capital sentiment as it is the most convenient tool to enter the market. As Bitcoin breaks through record highs and spot ETF funds return strongly, the market is becoming increasingly bullish. If the inflow trend continues, it is expected to trigger a new round of FOMO (fear of missing out) effect, forming a typical bull market structure driven by both price and capital.

Bitcoin falls back quickly after hitting high, nearly $300 million in 24 hours.

Bitcoin's strong breakout to new all-time highs on May 23, hitting $108,716, was followed by a quick pullback in the short term, a familiar scene once again - a massive liquidation wave caused by overleveraging on the long side, confirming the classic bullish phenomenon of "highs are corrections". Whenever Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the market tends to experience a technical pullback, and this time is no exception. Short-term liquidation is almost inevitable unless we enter a full FOMO phase. According to Coinglass data, a total of 93,446 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for a total of $290 million, with long positions accounting for $209 million and short positions for $80.15 million.

This correction is not a surprise, but rather a common rhythm in a healthy bull market. In the past, every time Bitcoin hit a high, the market would first see a quick pullback to clean out the fickle chips and excessive leverage. This kind of "oscillating uptrend" is the most typical and healthy way to move in a long-term bull market. The current round of bursts reflects the risk of overheated short-term capital and highly leveraged operations, but it does not change the overall uptrend. In the long run, this pullback provides a better opportunity to enter the market and lays the foundation for a stronger price push.

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Greed index continues to rise, time for profit taking

This week's Cryptocurrency Greed Index has cooled from 76 on Thursday to 67 as of this writing (Friday). Although it is still in the "greedy" zone, it has gradually retreated from the highs of recent days, and has been consolidating at the highs in tandem with the price of Bitcoin, which suggests that the market may be entering a corrective cycle in the short-term when the sentiment is overheated. When the market enters the "sustained greed" phase, it is often not the right time to add to positions, but rather the right time to gradually take profits and close out. Especially when most people are in a state of euphoria and fear of missing out (FOMO), it is a good time to stay rational and realize your gains.

If the greed index continues to rise and even approaches the extreme region (80-90+), coupled with increased market leverage, then the likelihood of a short-term correction will further intensify. Historically, the more extreme the sentiment, the more severe the correction. Investors are advised to reduce their positions in batches, or gradually shift their positions to defensive assets, and wait for the next round of pullback to take advantage of the opportunity.

Injective Sucks Money, Unichain and Ether Get Big Withdrawals

According to Artemis data, the week saw another shift in the flow of capital on the chain, with Injective leading the way with a net inflow of nearly $100 million, while Arbitrum and Polygon PoS also saw strong inflows of more than $70 million and $40 million, respectively, demonstrating that the market continues to be bullish on the high-efficiency L1 and mainstream L2 ecosystems. Solana remained in the top five of the inflow, indicating that its cross-chain money-sucking effect continues.

In contrast, Base inflow reached $350 million, but net inflow was nearly flat due to nearly $300 million outflow, while Unichain and Berachain both saw net outflow of over $100 million, indicating that funds are taking profits from high volatility projects, and in particular, the ethereum mainchain also saw outflow of more than $900 million, with a net outflow of nearly $100 million, making it the most heavily outflowing chain this week. In particular, the ethereum mainchain saw over $900 million in outflows this week, with net outflows approaching $100 million. Overall, capital is withdrawing from overheated new chains and refocusing on ecologically sound and practical infrastructure. The market has entered the stage of capital selection and is ready for the next attack.

Solana Becomes a Funding Hub, Base and HyperEVM Build a Two-Way Hot Road

According to deBridge's cross-chain flow charts for the past 7 days, Solana was the top cross-chain traffic this week, with the largest weighting as both an outgoing and incoming chain, indicating that it is rapidly gaining importance as a key player in multi-chain application scenarios. In particular, we can see large-scale cross-chain flows from Solana to mainstream chains such as Ethereum, Base and HyperEVM, reflecting its increasingly important role as a funding springboard.

While Ethereum continues to see significant inflows and maintains its position as the main value storage chain, outflows to many emerging chains such as HyperEVM and Base indicate that capital is seeking higher beta opportunities. Base continued its strong performance with the introduction of a new mechanism by Virtuals, attracting a lot of cross-chain capital from Solana, Ethereum and the BNB Chain during the week. Overall, this week's cross-chain funding structure demonstrates the increased interest in new and efficient chains, and suggests that the market is about to enter a more decentralized and thematic phase.

TVL Stable and Shock-Resistant, DeFi Fundamentals Show Long-Term Toughness

This week, DeFi's Total Volume Locked (TVL) slipped slightly from a high of $120B to $117.93B, a 24-hour decline of -2.65%, showing signs of a slight wavering in overall market confidence. However, from the trend chart, TVL still increased by about 2% over the past 7 days, indicating the steady growth of the De-Fi sector.

In addition, the total market capitalization of Stablecoins Mcap reached $246.108B, continuing to stand at a high level. This not only reflects that Stablecoins are still the preferred safe haven for mainstream capital, but also reserves sufficient firepower for future market rebound. Overall, despite the slight correction in the TVL this week, chain trading activity and stablecoin reserves still show that the DeFi infrastructure remains resilient. This combination of "price correction + stabilized fundamentals" may be seen as a precursor to short-term consolidation and momentum.

Signals of market recovery emerge, strong currencies rotate to lead capital flows

Although the overall market has yet to fully emerge from the macro pressure, the crypto market has clearly shown a rising pattern this week, with funds rotating from the stable mainstream to new narratives and highly resilient tokens. As seen in the Crypto Bubbles chart, most of the weekly gains in cryptocurrencies have turned green, with significant gains concentrated in the AI, L2, eco-narrative, and funk sectors, showing signs of a rebound in capital styles. Worldcoin (WLD) was the top performer this week, up +39.8%, benefiting from a huge influx of capital due to the expansion of the OpenAI ecosystem and the rise of the identity verification narrative. HYPE (+31.5%), SPX (+36.9%) and FARTCOIN (+25.5%) followed closely behind, demonstrating the market's gradual recovery in its preference for high-risk, high-reward targets.

Overall, the market has begun to recover from the correction period, with strong narrative and thematic tokens taking the lead in attracting capital, and the rotation structure is expected to continue in the near term. However, it is also important to keep an eye on the US stock market and macro-environmental variables, as market confidence may still reverse quickly if risky events recur. Investors are advised to strategically focus on strong targets with fundamental support and rising trading enthusiasm, and continue to pay attention to changes in the direction of capital focus.

Black Swan on the Chain Again: Cetus Protocol Hacked for $260 Million

Late Thursday night in Hong Kong, the crypto market witnessed another black swan incident - the Cetus Protocol, the core DEX of the Sui ecosystem and with over 60,000 users, was hacked and suffered a loss of up to US$223 million, shocking the entire chain world. This incident proves that the "hacking season" is in full swing: even a leading ecosystem protocol with a daily trading volume of more than $7 million can be crushed in just a few hours.

The attack occurred in the early morning hours of May 22nd, when hackers manipulated malicious contracts to lock in design flaws in Cetus' internal Oracle mechanism to exchange real assets (such as SUIs and USDCs) at a very low cost. At one point in the day, the volume of protocols increased from $320 million the previous day to $2.9 billion, which the hackers quickly transferred to the ethereum network and exchanged for approximately 21,938 ETH (market value of approximately $60 million).

The incident revealed two major structural risks. First, the built-in Oracle used by Cetus to reduce external dependency was the main breach in the attack without sufficient verification of asset prices; second, although the Sui Foundation intervened in time and coordinated with the verifiers to freeze more than US$160 million of the hacker's funds, thus successfully recovering some of the losses, it also raised questions about the extent of decentralization - when verifiers can "block" assets with a single click, is decentralization a virtual impossibility? -Does decentralization mean nothing when verifiers can "block" assets with a single click?

This case is not only a blow to Sui Eco's market capitalization, but also a wake-up call to all users that the potential risks of the on-chain world are far greater than imagined, and that the size of the agreement is not proportional to its security. Even non-developers should strictly protect their private keys and avoid authorizing unknown DApps or delivering permissions to others. In this era of hacking, the only way to protect your assets is to be more aware of security and to be cautious in your interactions.

FTX's Second Repayment Round Is About To Be Launched: Up To $5 Billion In Funding May Return To Market

The second round of FTX's debt restructuring plan will officially kick off on May 30th, with over $5 billion expected to be disbursed to creditors who have completed the qualification process. This not only marks a major step forward in the bankruptcy case, but also has the potential to provide a real injection of liquidity into the current crypto market. This means that if a significant percentage of creditors choose to return their funds to the market, it could result in a multi-billion dollar level of buying. According to Cryptopolitan, analysts say there is a clear tendency for such funds to be "re-invested" in the market, especially with Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 and overall market sentiment on the bullish side, the likelihood of funds flowing back into mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH is extremely high.

Second, historical experience also provides corroboration. Many past bankruptcy payouts or airdrops, such as the Mt. Gox funding phase and the Celsius liquidation process, have boosted market volume and capital activity in the short term, and this round of FTX is even larger, with a total payout of about $11.4 billion and a significant potential liquidity impact. If this capital continues to be released in subsequent rounds of distributions, it will provide structural support for the bulls," said John J. Ray III, head of the FTX Restoration Trust program, adding that the team will continue to work to maximize the amount of money recovered by creditors, which means there is still room for more liquidity to be released.

Extreme Betting? Legendary trader James Wynn's 40x leveraged bet on BTC longs

With Bitcoin breaking out to new all-time highs, renowned highly leveraged trader James Wynn has taken a $1 billion long position in Bitcoin at 40 times leverage, and his position is near a new all-time high. At first glance, the risk looks extremely high, but in fact, it is a strategic bet based on the convergence of multiple technical and macro bullishness, which may be an important signal that the market has entered a new round of price discovery. Bitcoin has stood above $100,000 for 11 consecutive days, breaking above the previous high of $109,000 to form an effective technical breakout. It is now trading above the 7-day ($105,356) and 30-day averages ($99,424), with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) at 77.97, signaling plenty of momentum.

As mentioned in last week's linked data, Bitcoin's average cost base has been rising over the past few months, suggesting that most investors are willing to enter the market at higher prices and that support is gradually rising below the price. This move not only reflects the trend of entering the market after a breakout of the technical structure, but is also a systematic bet on macro liquidity and the lifting of psychological thresholds. If the price continues its historical pattern and takes off again after completing a high level consolidation, the next target may be $150,000. Investors should look for a second signal after the high level consolidation, rather than missing out on the medium-term trend due to short-term oscillations.

Robert Ching-Yi: Bitcoin to soar to millions, predicts collapse of confidence in fiat currencies

Robert Kiyosaki, a well-known financial writer, has once again issued a radical prediction that the price of Bitcoin could soar to $500,000-$1 million in the future and warned that the U.S. financial system is facing an unprecedented crisis of trust. Although his statements have always been controversial, his long-term beliefs and predictions on hard assets have repeatedly coincided with market rhythms, and are worth watching. Citing the recent US Treasury auction debacle, Ching Yee described the Federal Reserve being forced to buy US$50 billion of its own bonds as a "no-show party", symbolizing the collapse of market confidence in government debt. He further predicted that the U.S. will enter an era of hyperinflation and the purchasing power of the fiat currency will be destroyed, and emphasized that only hard assets such as Bitcoin, gold and silver will retain their value in a crisis.

Although Ching Yee is known for his radical views, his longtime critique of the fiat currency system and support for real assets overlaps with some market consensus. His bearish stance on gold and Bitcoin in early 2020 has successfully captured the long-term trend. This time, his view of Bitcoin as an "anti-central banking system" hedging tool is consistent with the accelerating trend of institutions entering the market through ETFs. Although not a rigorous modeling exercise, Ching Yee's intuitive sense of systemic risk and long-term asset allocation reflects the market's growing emphasis on financial distrust and the logic of currency risk aversion. In the face of potential currency turbulence, her aggressive rhetoric may be an early warning of institutional cracks.

Virtuals Daily Rewards Push Lockups, Value-Backed Logic Takes Shape

Virtuals' newly launched veVIRTUAL pledge mechanism significantly enhances the incentive for users to lock in their positions through the design of daily bonus points. According to the official description, veVIRTUAL is expected to receive 20% of the total points allocated, and will make up the difference due to the floating reward mechanism on a daily basis to ensure that the pledges get their due returns. Meanwhile, 0xJeff, an observer of the Virtuals ecosystem, also pointed out that based on past valuations of points (about $0.012 to $0.034 per point), if 100,000 to 400,000 points were earned steadily every day, the corresponding revenue could reach $1,200 to $3,400, which is extremely tempting, and has led to some participants choosing to lock in 10,000 to 50,000 $VIRTUALs to earn points steadily. This is very tempting.

This mechanism is designed to encourage a "rational partial lock" strategy that avoids the risk of liquidity constraints associated with full locks, while ensuring the basic amount of credits required to participate in a Genesis launch project. When investors realize that they only need to lock a small amount of positions in exchange for a stable and attractive reward, it will naturally drive up the demand for $VIRTUAL locks, which in turn will lead to a reduction in liquidity supply, support the currency price in the medium-to-long term, and further attract more participants to join the program.

In summary, this round of optimization of token economics not only stabilizes the core user base, but also injects potential value support for $VIRTUAL. As AI and meme have become the hottest narrative axis in the market, Virtuals, as an innovative platform that combines traffic generation, reward mechanism and topic narrative, is expected to strengthen its competitive edge in the hot track with its locking position and token design, and become the focus of the next wave of capital chase.

Hyperliquid TVL and Currency Hits New Highs, Risk of Short-Term High Chasing Heats Up

The price of Hyperliquid (HYPE) returned to above $20 on May 8, along with the platform's DeFi Total Locked Position (TVL) hitting an all-time high of $872 million, signaling a simultaneous rebound in eco-mining and market confidence. According to DefiLlama, Hyperliquid's TVL has rapidly doubled since its April 7 low of $312 million and has since risen sharply to $872 million, a new all-time high. The increase reflects the continued influx of capital, indicating that users' confidence in the platform's liquidity mechanism and security has been restored. In terms of price, HYPE has soared more than 1,33% since its low of US$9.30 after the hacking incident in early April, and is now firmly above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, maintaining a strong technical pattern. The combination of TVL and the currency price hitting highs often indicates that the market is overheated in the short term and sentiment is skewed towards greed. Despite the strong fundamentals, the risk of chasing higher is also elevated. For those who have not positioned at the mid-April lows, the reward-to-risk ratio is unattractive; on the other hand, early entrants may consider taking profits in tranches to cope with potential retracement risks. In conclusion, although Hyperliquid's TVL and price have both reached new highs, short-term overheating should be avoided. Investors should avoid emotional price chasing, wait for a rational correction before intervening, and implement a profit-taking exit strategy to capitalize on medium-term upside opportunities.

Chainlink × Ondo × J.P. Morgan: Standardization of Chainlink Settlement Accelerates

The deeper integration of Chainlink with traditional finance is rapidly evolving into a market staple. The recent completion of the first cross-chain atomic delivery (DvP) test transaction between Chainlink, J.P. Morgan's Kinexys and Ondo Finance crystallizes this trend. The transaction demonstrated a new level of collaboration between large-scale projects by enabling simultaneous settlement of digital payments on the Kinexys licensing chain and a tokenized U.S. government bond fund (OUSG) hosted by Ondo Chain through Chainlink's secure cross-chain coordination layer.

This partnership is not only symbolic of a technological breakthrough, but also brings a key demonstration effect to the industry. According to official data, since its inception, the Kinexys platform has cumulatively processed more than US$1.5 trillion in nominal transaction volume, with an average daily transaction size of more than US$2 billion and a 10-fold annual growth rate, reflecting the growing demand for on-chain clearing structures from traditional financial institutions. This tripartite cooperation has constructed a set of disintermediated transaction framework centered on cross-chain atomic clearing of on-chain assets and payments, and symbolizes the concrete realization of the integration of the public chain and the licensing chain.

Sergey Nazarov, co-founder of Chainlink, said, "World-class organizations are increasingly recognizing that effective participation in the public chain marketplace depends on standardized and compliant cross-chain connectivity. From Swift, DTCC, Visa, to the current collaboration between Kinexys, Chainlink and Ondo, there is a clear trend that traditional financial and on-chain infrastructures are moving towards standardized alliances that can be combined and interacted with, signaling an accelerated transformation of the future financial architecture towards on-chain connectivity.

FIFA builds proprietary chain on AVAX as sports giants embrace public chain infrastructure

FIFA has announced that it will deploy its proprietary Layer-1 blockchain on Avalanche, replacing its previous partnership with Algorand, which, with 6,500 transactions per second and sub-par confirmation times, provides FIFA with a low-cost, high-performance technology foundation to support the needs of its multi-million-fan-sized applications. According to John Nahas, Commercial Director of Avalanche, the agreement is "designed for global scale applications with speed, flexibility and security", demonstrating the maturity of its enterprise-class infrastructure.

This move not only signifies FIFA's deepening embrace of Web3, but also reflects the real need for large traditional organizations to have a scalable public chain. FIFA's move from Algorand, where only NFTs are mounted, to Avalanche, where a complete base chain is built, symbolizes the extension of the application layer to the underlying infrastructure. The blockchain is EVM-compatible and lays a standardized path for more sports entertainment platforms to deploy Web3 in the future. This cooperation not only makes AVAX an important cornerstone of Web3 sports innovation, but also further consolidates the grand narrative of "encryption into the mainstream". With the entry of international organizations like FIFA, blockchain is no longer just a testing ground for the cryptosphere, but is rapidly transforming into one of the underlying structures of the mainstream industry.

Macro News

Macro news impacts crypto market again as EU tariff risk rises

Donald Trump's threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods, while still negotiable, has sparked a high level of anxiety in global markets, and has also affected the crypto market, which has been performing strongly recently. The move shows that macroeconomic and geopolitical risks are fast becoming important factors in the direction of crypto assets. The escalation of trade tensions between the US and Europe and the logic of "economic coercion" behind it highlights the contagious effect of policy uncertainty on the capital markets.

Even though Bitcoin is still at a high level, the overall crypto market has retreated slightly since the news was released, suggesting increased sensitivity to macro risks. Bitcoin used to be viewed as a safe-haven asset that was disconnected from traditional markets, but now it is more of a high beta asset that is highly responsive to policy shocks and market volatility. As the world enters a new phase of "tariff reversion" and geopolitical games, capital allocation will be more focused on the macro environment. If the crypto market is to attract more institutional capital, future price movements are bound to be more closely linked to macro news and policy games.

Capital Flows Into Crypto Markets as U.S. Stocks Plunge

On May 21, the four major U.S. indices fell across the board - the S&P 500 fell 1.62%, the Nasdaq fell 1.41%, the Dow Jones fell 1.92%, and the Russell 2000 had its biggest one-day drop since April, with tech stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla all hit hard, Technology stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla were all hit hard. In contrast, the price of Bitcoin has risen above $104,000, hitting an all-time high. The fall in US equities was driven by weak corporate financial forecasts (e.g. Target lowered its full-year guidance), financial risks (e.g. Wolfspeed rumored to be in bankruptcy), and rising macro uncertainty, which prompted a search for safe-havens and alternative assets.

Bitcoin's low market correlation and high liquidity have increasingly demonstrated its role as a "macro-allocation asset". The growth in spot ETF inflows in tandem with active addresses on the chain is evidence of the reallocation of capital to the crypto space. Looking at market dynamics, capital is shifting away from the high valuation pressures in the technology and consumer sectors and towards scarcity and safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin. This breakout is not only a technical move, but also a clear signal of capital structure shift. If the volatility in U.S. equities continues, the crypto market is expected to attract more traditional capital.

Chained Data Analysis:

Bitcoin Hits All-Time High as Short-Term Holders Turn Sharp Profits

With Bitcoin hitting record highs, short-term holders are turning into profit makers, and the market is turning positive, but we need to be wary of potential profit-taking pressure. According to Glassnode, the STH Profit/Loss Ratio has surged above 9.0, indicating that over 90% of short-term holdings are in profit. The indicator has rebounded sharply since its early April low (0.03), coinciding with Bitcoin's strong recovery from $76,000 to new highs.

The sharp turnaround in short-term holdings reflects a return to risk appetite, but it also signals that potential profit-taking could gradually increase, especially near historical highs. Past experience has shown that when such profit-taking ratios are too high, the market is susceptible to short-term chip liquidation and price volatility, which can induce further volatility. At the current high level, it is prudent to remain optimistic and consider taking profits in tranches to help strike a balance between sustained highs and potential pullbacks.

$93K-$95K area is strong support, overlapping with short-term holders' cost base

The Bitcoin market has recently seen significant buying accumulation between $93K and $95K, which has formed a clear support zone. According to the Glassnode Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, this chart shows that the price is now red-orange in color, indicating a large concentration of token supply in this area. Since the rebound from the $75K low in early April, the market has been moving up in steps, with each upturn being preceded by a clear sideways absorption period, and $93K-$95K is the core accumulation zone ahead of the latest upturn.

If we analyze further, we can see that this price band is highly consistent with the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which is the average purchase price of those who bought Bitcoin in the past 155 days, and represents the "psychological support line" for short-term investors in the market. When the price falls back to this area, these holders are most likely still around the break-even point and are less inclined to panic sell, and may even increase their positions further, thus creating solid demand support.

In conclusion, $93K-$95K is not only a clear absorption area in the recent spot market, but also highly overlaps with the short-term cost of capital base, the resonance of this chain with the market behavior provides a double support base on the technical and behavioral levels, and there is a high probability that this area will be the key to a rebound in case of a short-term price correction in the future.

Bitcoin Liquidity Continues to Tighten, Long-Term Holders' Faith Unabated

Bitcoin's long-term holding trend is clearly strengthening, and spot liquidity continues to tighten, helping to support price stabilization in the high range. According to CryptoRank and Glassnode, the current Illiquid Supply exceeded 14 million BTC, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total supply, a record high. In particular, over the past 30 days, about 180,000 BTC have been deposited into addresses with no transaction history or very low spending.

This suggests that large amounts of Bitcoin are being transferred to cold wallets or long-term storage addresses, reflecting the fact that investors remain steadfast in their beliefs and are not rushing to cash in on the rising price. This trend has become more pronounced since the FTX crisis in 2022, creating a structural divergence from the price trend and suggesting that chips are being concentrated among long-term holders, further compressing market liquidity. While short-term holders are likely to take profits, long-term hoarding strength provides medium- to long-term support for the market, helping to curb the risk of a sharp pullback and supporting a stable consolidation of prices in the upper range.

Short-term holders are beginning to take profits, not yet reached extreme highs, may be a good opportunity for gradual arbitrage

Short term holders (STH) are starting to realize profits but are not yet in bubble territory, the market could move further up and gradual profit taking could reduce risk. Based on Glassnode's linked data as of May 2025, the Z-Score for STH realized profits has risen to 2.89, which is close to the "high risk" zone (Z > 3) but still below the extreme highs of past bull markets (Z > 5), such as the 2021 and early 2024 tops.

The Z-Score is a reflection of market sentiment and profitability; a rising Z-Score means that more short-term participants are realizing profits, suggesting that the market is entering the profit-taking phase, but it has not yet reached the "very high risk" warning line, which means there is still room to move up. If the combination price hits a new all-time high (ATH), it is not a good idea to chase the market blindly, but there is no need to sell in panic. The current mid-to-late uptrend phase of the market provides an opportunity for rational profit-taking (e.g., batch exits). It is advisable to gradually realize profits according to position and risk appetite during the high volatility period to cope with the potential fluctuations in the future.

Selling pressure still exists but has actually slowed down significantly

Selling pressure is gradually easing, if not completely subsiding, as evidenced by the behavior of both buyers and sellers in the cash market. Looking at the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator - which measures the net volume between active buyers and sellers in the spot market - we can clearly see this change. According to the chart, extreme selling pressure of up to -$71M per day has been seen in the Binance market since mid-March 2025, but as of May, this pressure has dropped to around -$9M per day, suggesting that seller-initiated orders are receding with significantly less intensity.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase platform has turned buyer-driven since mid-April, with the CVD soaring to +$45M/day, further supporting the momentum for the price to rise above $80K. This phenomenon shows that during the BTC price rise, not only the on-chain coin holding behavior showed a trend of fundraising, but also the off-chain order flow also shifted in the same direction, highlighting the real support from multiple buyers.

To summarize, although the overall market is still not out of the net selling pressure area, the trend has turned from extreme to moderate, which, together with the increasing buying pressure on platforms such as Coinbase, reflects a shift from "panic selling" to "positive take-up" in the short to medium term. This gradual balancing of long and short forces is conducive to building the foundation for a medium-term uptrend.

The First Drop was a great success, Monsterblockhk community participated enthusiastically!

On Friday night, the Sui Eco Community Dinner, co-organized by Monsterblockhk and Sui, was successfully held in Hong Kong, attracting a large number of local and international Sui enthusiasts, creators and builders. The event was a relaxed and enjoyable affair, combining dinner networking, project sharing and peripheral distribution, allowing participants to gain a deeper understanding of this fast-growing blockchain ecosystem. Even though it was early in the morning in Canada, Scott, the founder of Monsterblockhk, made a surprise appearance through a short Google Meet video to express his greetings and support to the community, and this heartfelt gesture touched the participants deeply.

As an important node of Sui in Hong Kong, SUIJAI is committed to promoting the development of the local ecosystem, connecting like-minded developers and enthusiasts, and becoming a solid platform for local Sui users to rely on and communicate with each other. In the project sharing session, speakers from Sui Official, Scallop and NAVI Protocol took turns to analyze the technical highlights and application potential of their projects. One of the attendees shared with us, "The atmosphere of the event was great, and it was an excellent opportunity to communicate with a group of like-minded Web3 enthusiasts. The speakers were well-timed, the content was practical, and there was plenty of time for interaction with the speakers after the presentation."

Conclusion:

This week's bursts and shocks are not the end of the bull market, but more like a rhythmic adjustment to clean up the noise. With spot ETFs sucking in gold, Solana becoming a hub across the chain, and the strong currency narrative rebooting, the market structure is pointing to the fact that the real main uptrend may be coming sooner than you expect. But bull markets never go up in a straight line, they always give the fiercest corrections when they are at their most frenzied. At this moment, discipline will determine whether you can go farther. It is recommended that investors should take their profits in batches to keep the firepower for the next wave of the market. Remember: not pocketing your profits is tantamount to not earning; and a true expert never loses his way at the climax.

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