U.S. Recession
With the release of the second quarter GDP data, the U.S. has now experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
Under the original definition (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) the United States was officially in a recession, however, theBiden Administration Denies U.S. is in Recession by Changing Definition of Recession。
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan rhetorically asked "If Biden isn't worried about a recession, why change his definition?"
Market Rebound
Three days ago, the Fed said it would not ease its efforts until there was "credible evidence" that inflation was falling. This means that the Fed will not raise rates blindly, but will rely on data and abandon forward guidance.
Markets then bounced back and the general market view is that CPI will come down quickly and interest rates are expected to fall with it. When rates fall, risky assets usually run away and tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will become strong.
Although Bitcoin has risen by more than % in the past few days, the macro-economy is still not clear, except for the US-Russia Proxy-war still going on and the negative growth of the US economy, of course, there are other factors!
In a bear market, a rebound can easily make a retail investor become Bullish, looking at the macro and long term is the way to win in the long run, which sounds like nonsense, but how many people really do it?