When the majority of investors lose their capital and sell for a while, this is called a Capitulation, which usually occurs at the end of a panic selling cycle.
Short-term price-sensitive investors may be the first to go If there is no sign of recovery, another group of investors may choose to follow suit, triggering further panic selling.
However, capitulation does not mean that the investment product is finished. Investors buy and sell the product for many different reasons, and if the fundamentals are strong, the price drop will only be temporary.
According to market science, when most of the investors (including long-term investors) have sold out, it means that all the sellers have left the market and only buyers are netting down, so the capitulation phenomenon often means that the market is close to bottoming out and rebounding.
Analysis Method: BTC Long Term Holder SOPR
If the value is greater than one, it means that the tokens were sold at a profit.
If the value is less than one, it means that the token was sold at a loss (realized).
The current value (0.67) is close to the bottom of the bear market.
The current value (0.67) is close to the bottom of the previous bear market., reflecting a 33% loss to long-term investors on the sale of the position compared to the purchase price.
Analysis: BTC Long Term Holder MVRV
Reflects unrealized gains and losses (unsold).
・Red range indicates overvalued prices; green range indicates undervalued prices.
Currently, the value reflects that long-term investors are losing 14% compared to the bid price.
Analysis: BTC Realized Price
・It has been realized that the price reflects the average Bitcoin bid price across the chain.
Currently, the realized price level is 22,000 USD.
Currently, the difference between the realized price level and the market price ($19,500) is 6%.
Comprehensive Analysis
This data, combined with the previous three data, is conditional on the SOPR and MVRV being lower than one, and the market price being lower than the Realized Price, which facilitates the conclusion that there is a capitulation of long-term investors.
So we can seeIt is worth noting that the historical phenomenon of a bottom, i.e. a stage of capitulation by long-term investors (the blue zone), has already occurred.