貿易戰升級、恐慌指數飆升、全球市場震盪——然而幣圈大佬卻在默默加倉？

This week, the global economy suffered another setback as tariff actions escalated across the board. Bitcoin fell as low as $75,000, while Ether was even lower, briefly hitting the $1,400 mark. The trigger for this shock? The escalating trade war. The U.S. was the first to announce tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese goods, followed by China's counter-attack with tariffs of up to 84% on U.S. goods, triggering global market turmoil, and crypto assets were not immune. However, it is worth noting that while the market is in panic, large investors are quietly sweeping up Bitcoin, which may be a precursor to the layout of the market. Is all this the calm before the storm, or is there a turning point in the crisis? This issue of the weekly report will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the backstage network, and bring you the latest market trends.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Continues Net Outflows as Panic Rises

Over the past week, the Bitcoin spot ETF has continued to record net outflows, with red bars almost every day, and the largest net outflow in a single day was close to USD 200 million. This steady outflow has been going on for about two weeks, indicating a continuous decline in institutional funding confidence, which is in tandem with the downward movement of Bitcoin price, and echoes the market sentiment index which has been in "extreme fear" for a long period of time, further reflecting that the risk aversion atmosphere is heating up.

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Bitcoin's 24-Hour Positions Surpass $370 Million, Overleveraged Market Sparks Liquidation Chain

In mid-week, Bitcoin's liquidation exceeded US$377 million, reflecting the volatility of the market. A large number of long positions were liquidated, indicating that market leverage is highly concentrated in the bullish direction. As Bitcoin is a major asset, it is usually the first to trigger a liquidation chain effect during severe market conditions, further amplifying market risks and volatility. Overall, the market is under significant deleveraging pressure.

Fear Index Drops to 18 at One Point: Is the Market Heading for a Bottom?

In addition to the technical pressure brought about by leverage liquidation, investor sentiment has also fluctuated dramatically. When the market undergoes such a large-scale deleveraging within a short period of time, sentiment tends to deteriorate rapidly, further triggering panic selling and creating a situation where both technical and psychological factors are at play. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at 39, indicating that the market is in a state of "fear". Combined with the recent macro backdrop of rising trade friction between the US and China and tariff headwinds, overall investment sentiment is under double pressure. Historical experience has shown that such sentiment extremes are often a sign of a near-bottom. If there are no further major negative signs in the next few days, we may see a technical rebound or bottoming opportunity. However, in the short term, we should remain cautious and not be all-in, watching for signs of asset stabilization.

Ether Stabilizes at the Core, Berachain Boom Cools Off

In an atmosphere of extreme fear, the direction of capital flows revealed the deeper thinking of investors. Despite the turbulence, some mainstream assets have demonstrated their "safe haven" qualities, as funds have begun to selectively focus on specific circuits, creating a clear divergence in asset performance. Despite the downturn, Ethereum saw net inflows of more than $200 million, demonstrating its strong position as a safe haven for capital. This inflow is closely related to the LRT (Liquid Restaking Token) boom, especially EigenLayer and related agreements (e.g. Ether.fi, Renzo) which attracted a large amount of repledging funds, boosting the TVL of the main chain and reaffirming Ethereum's role as the core of DeFi. In contrast, Berachain saw the highest outflows in the chain at over $100 million, and while its high APR program once drove up TVLs, as early liquidity mining bonuses waned and market sentiment cooled, funds began to exit in a big way.

Crypto Markets in Full Retreat: Is the Market at a Confidence Freeze Point?

Although a few assets still managed to attract the attention of capital, this bright spot cannot change the weak pattern of the overall market. Under the combination of negative macroeconomic conditions and low sentiment, most crypto assets are struggling to cope with the selling pressure, and the market has entered a full-blown pullback phase, with confidence dropping to freezing point. Over the past week, the economy has been hit by tariffs, with mainstream currencies such as ETH (-23.7%), BTC (-10.4%) and SOL (-16.3%) experiencing double-digit declines, and the sector is under selling pressure. Risk aversion is on the rise, with a few items such as DEXE (+20.8%) rising against the trend, indicating that overall market confidence is still at a freezing point.

Currency News: Infrastructure Rises Against the Trend as Markets Plunge

CZ was invited as a consultant to Pakistan to start the national Web3 transformation.

CZ Zhao, founder of Currency Security, has been appointed as a strategic advisor to Pakistan's Crypto Commission to assist the government in promoting the development of digital assets. "We are excited to help Pakistan unlock the potential of Web3 to promote economic empowerment and financial freedom," said CZ. Pakistan has one of the world's top five Web3 developers and a young population of over 60%, making it an ideal breeding ground for the Web3 ecosystem. With more governments adopting digital assets and blockchain infrastructure, it will be a boon for the crypto industry as a whole to mature and mainstream.

XRP ETF Officially Lists on NYSE, U.S. Regulatory Lines Turn Institutionalized

In addition to emerging markets embracing crypto assets, positive signals are coming from the world's major regulatory centers. Despite the overall market downturn, the U.S. has taken a big step forward in the ETF space, further strengthening the institutionalized development path for crypto assets. The first XRP ETF (XXRP) launched by Teucrium was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 8 and recorded a strong first-day response, making it one of the most successful product launches in the company's history. The ETF is 2x leveraged and designed for traders who are bullish on XRP and do not have access to a traditional margin account. This reflects the improving regulatory environment in the U.S., where the financialization of crypto assets is steadily moving forward, and Teucrium's CEO noted that the ETF's successful approval was due to the proactive approach of the new SEC leadership, which means that regulation is no longer repressive, but rather is moving toward institutionalization and cooperation. While the market is cold, the infrastructure under construction continues to progress, making this a golden opportunity for value investors.

Backpack's Key to Scoring Revealed: "Profit/Loss Ratio" is the King of Scoring

As regulation becomes clearer and competition shifts to user experience and product design, Backpack's points campaign, Season 1, gives out 10 million points per week for 10 weeks to encourage healthy trading behavior. Tests have shown that the "profit/loss ratio" is the key to scoring, and that it is difficult to score points simply by trading a large number of trades, and that higher risk/higher return strategies are more advantageous. If points can be exchanged for tokens on a 1:1 basis, the initial market value will be $50 million, with each point worth about $0.5. It's still attractive to players who know how to play strategy, but it's risky to blindly brush up the volume. The real value lies in continuous optimization and practice, which is the core competitiveness of the crypto world.

Crypto firms hit the brakes as Trump restarts tariff war, Circle rumored to delay IPO

However, compared to the aggressive deployment of platforms, market confidence is still facing a serious challenge. Macroeconomic uncertainty, especially changes in trade policy, has forced crypto giants that were preparing to go public to put the brakes on and wait and see. Circle, a stablecoin issuer that was expected to list on the New York Stock Exchange at a valuation of $60 billion, is now considering delaying its IPO due to the macro-market turmoil, a plan that was only recently filed with regulators, but has been stalled due to the reintroduction of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, which have exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economy and trade. Not only Circle, but also eToro, Klarna and many other fintech and crypto companies have also suspended their public offering programs. Market volatility has been intense, with the total crypto market capitalization evaporating by $250 billion in just one day, Bitcoin even dropping below $75,000 at one point, and the VIX fear index rising to a new high since the outbreak.

PancakeSwap Launches CAKE 3.0 Deflationary Mechanism, Leaving Short-Term Incentives Behind and Returning to Long-Term Value

Despite the slowdown in the capital market, the reform of the protocol layer has not stopped; PancakeSwap is rebuilding user trust through the optimization of the economic model, and promoting the transformation from reward-driven to value-supported. The new proposal focuses on achieving a deflation target of approximately 4% per year, reducing CAKE dispersion and optimizing overall token circulation efficiency, while phasing out the existing CAKE pledge, veCAKE model, Gauges voting mechanism and revenue sharing mechanism to promote a purer value of CAKE holdings. By reducing emissions, simplifying the incentive structure and enhancing the significance of holding tokens, this will transform CAKEs into assets that are backed by real value, encouraging long-term holders rather than relying on short-term incentives for liquidity behavior.

OKX Malta Fined €1.1 Million as Compliance Pressure Mounts in MiCA Times Europe

While the agreement is working internally to restructure its economic model, exchanges are adjusting under external regulatory pressure. Recently, OKX's European subsidiary was fined €1.1 million by the Malta Financial Intelligence Unit for failing to implement anti-money laundering measures in 2023, even though it had already been licensed by MiCA this year. This case highlights the high barriers to entry into the European market, and that even with MiCA authorization, past violations will still be prosecuted. This demonstrates the increasingly stringent regulatory environment in Europe, where compliance has become a core competency for crypto players.

CZ and V God shouted on the same stage: AI + Blockchain is the next wave of the main theme!

In the face of increasingly stringent global regulation, industry leaders have begun to turn their attention to the next growth engine. At BNB Chain's event, CZ and V-God were rarely seen on the same stage, proposing a new narrative of "AI x Blockchain", bringing new imagination and hope to the market. The event focused on the decentralized ecosystem of "AI Priority" and attracted many developers and projects to showcase various innovative applications from DeFi to DAO. The presence of bigwigs in the cryptocurrency industry is not only a topic of conversation, but also a strong signal that AI x blockchain is the main theme of the future!

Macro: From Wall Street to the Chain, No One is Spared

The past week has seen an unprecedented sell-off in global risk assets with Trump announcing that he will impose up to 1,04% "Liberation Day" tariffs on Chinese imports at midnight on April 8 and threatening additional tariffs on allies such as the EU, Canada and Japan. Here's a look at what's happening in the global markets. Under the impact of the tariffs, global markets collapsed. The S&P 500 lost more than 12% in four days, evaporating nearly $5.83 trillion in market capitalization and dropping below 5,000 on April 8. The VIX Panic Index surged to 52.33, a record high since 2020, and Asian markets were also hit hard. Asian markets were also hit hard, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plummeting 13.3%, the worst since 1997; Nikkei 225 fell nearly 20% in two weeks, and Taiwan's stock market collapsed 10% in a single day, while European markets also suffered, with the Stoxx 600 dropping four straight times, and slumping 4.5% in a single day, reflecting the overall high level of panic in the global market over rising tariffs and recession.

Bitcoin plummeted 5.5% to a 2025 low of $75,000 due to safe-haven selling, while ethereum plunged more than 23% during the same period and triggered a leveraged liquidation of more than $400 million, indicating that crypto markets are under pressure as well as traditional markets. If the tariff standoff persists, global equities and crypto may further test lower support, and investors need to prepare psychologically for worst-case scenarios, with short-term bottoms likely to emerge in the next few days. Investors are advised to stay away from charts for the time being in order to avoid emotional manipulation, and to adopt a DCA strategy of allocating positions at low levels in order to effectively diversify risks during volatility. The crypto market's setback is more due to the systemic panic in traditional markets, which is synchronized with the trend of capital withdrawal from risky assets. Whether it is US stocks, Asian stocks, European stocks or cryptocurrencies, they are not immune to this shock.

Chained Data Analysis: Bitcoin Falls Into Bear Market Decoupling Structure, Giant Whale Quietly Lays Hands on Ether

Bitcoin in a classic bear market decoupling structure: capital in, price not moving

The Bitcoin market is currently in a classic bear market phase - despite continued capital inflows in the chain, prices have been slow to respond effectively, as can be clearly seen in the difference in growth rates between Market Cap and Realized Cap. Looking at the chart, the Realized Cap has shown steady growth since Q4 2024, indicating that more and more real capital is entering the market. However, Bitcoin's market capitalization has been trading sideways at a high level, even declining slightly in early 2025. This is very similar to the structure of past bear markets (e.g., 2015, 2018, and 2022) - a typical down-cycle feature when large amounts of capital come in but fail to push the price up. The logic behind this is not difficult to understand. Realized market capitalization reflects the amount of capital actually invested in the market, while market capitalization reflects more of the market's reaction and sentiment towards prices. When the market selling pressure is heavy, even if a large influx of capital, it is difficult to pull prices. In this case, the market value and the realization of the market value of the decoupling is the most representative signal of the bear market: money in the coming, but the price does not move up. In summary, the market is not yet out of the bear market pattern. If realized market capitalization continues to rise and prices fail to follow suit, BTC is likely to retest the previous low range and even prolong the bottom of the oscillator. Historically, a true trend reversal usually takes more than 6 months for the market to bottom out and digest the chips, so the likelihood of a major rebound in the short term is low and investors should remain cautious about the current rebound.

Giant Whale Sucks Heavily in Ether Crash: The Prelude to a Bull Market Has Been Quietly Sounded

However, Bitcoin is not the only asset that has seen its price decoupled from its capital. On the other hand, Ether has also been facing a sharp pullback recently, but the capital flows and the actions of the giant whales in the chain have revealed very different signals and potential opportunities. Lookonchain pointed out that the two giant whales bought more than 15,000 ETH on April 7, when the Ether dropped to $1,430, accumulating more than $94.6 million in capital deployed, and held on to their positions despite the losses, showing that this is not a panic behavior. These whales' "low-balling" indicates that capital is quietly accumulating, and the RSI indicator is approaching oversold territory and historical lows are supportive, suggesting that the possibility of a rebound has increased. Analysts predict that ETH may fall below $1,000 in the short term, but then rebound, and the long-term potential is still as high as $10,000. The key point is: prices lie, but giant whales' actions do not. The whales are steadily buying Ether despite short-term losses, which is a signal, a rhythm, a language of the market that pre-dates the headlines. If you are still waiting for the "positive news" to come out before entering the market, then the real entry point has already been quietly eaten up by the big investors. Watch how the giant whales move, instead of asking the market, "Should we buy now?

BTC Market Share Approaching Critical Highs: Altseason Turning Point on the Horizon?

While capital is quietly deployed in mainstream assets, the overall market landscape is changing. From a Bitcoin market share perspective, the market is entering a phase of capital concentration that may be a key precursor to the next cycle turnaround. During the bear market in early 2020, BTC.D reached a high of approximately 70%, and the current market share is now 63.45%, only 6% short of the all-time high, suggesting that the market may be approaching a tipping point. If the market falls further in the near future and panic sets in, we could see BTC.D challenge the 70% level again. Once the market share tops out, along with catalysts such as quantitative easing (QE), interest rate shifts, or ETF pushes, capital could start flowing from Bitcoin to the Wallaby market, triggering the next round of Altseason, and reminding investors that close monitoring of the giant whale's movements and the market's capital flows is the key to catching the cycle as it unfolds.

Trading Volumes Slashed, Markets in Dead Silence: Quiet Before the Storm or the Endgame?

In addition to the trend of capital concentration, the apparent cooling of market liquidity is a phenomenon that should not be ignored. The recent sharp decline in Bitcoin trading volume is another key indicator of market confidence and willingness to participate. According to Kaiko data, as of April 2025, weekly Bitcoin trading volume has fallen to just about US$$91 billion, down more than 45% from the high of US$170 billion in November 2024 during the U.S. election campaign, and back to pre-election lows. This is not just a simple fluctuation in data, but reflects a rapid loss of confidence in the market as a whole. Trading volume is the most direct indicator of investor sentiment and participation, and today's downturn represents a sharp drop in market liquidity as major funds wait and watch, and retail investors retreat, meaning prices will become more fragile, and the slightest fluctuation in the market could trigger sharp fluctuations. This low volume is often a precursor to an impending market turnaround. History has shown many times that when trading volume falls to a low point and sentiment is extremely pessimistic, it is the moment when capital quietly enters the market and the market is ready to take off. The "quiet" at this time may not be the end, but may be the calm before the storm. Investors should continue to watch for reversal signals such as return of capital and rebound of trading enthusiasm, so as to prepare for the next wave of the bull market rather than panic selling of currencies.

Bitcoin 34,000 Outflows in a Single Day: Selling Wave or Mainstream 'Cold Wallet' Layout?

It is worth noting that, despite the overall decline in trading activity, there is still a large amount of capital transfer out of the exchange on the chain. These seemingly contradictory phenomena actually hide deeper market attitudes and asset allocation logic. The data on the chain shows that a large amount of capital still chooses to transfer BTC from exchanges to cold wallets, and the net outflow of 34,000 BTC in a single day at the beginning of April shows that the main force has not panicked and sold due to the short-term fluctuations, but instead chose to hold on to BTC for a long period of time, which is a clear signal. It is worth noting that these operations are not targeting high-risk coins, but rather Bitcoin, the most liquid and trust-based core asset in the crypto market. In the current environment of declining liquidity and rising uncertainty, the direction of investor capital flows represents a market judgment. This also reaffirms Bitcoin's growing role as "digital gold" in the overall crypto ecosystem: when the market is at risk, capital no longer flows to torrents, but back to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative target, but also a safe-haven and a stable store of value.

Hong Kong Web3 Ecology Takes Shape: Hong Kong Carnival 2025 Reveals Opportunities and Challenges

The 2025 Web3 Carnival in Hong Kong revealed a maturing regional ecosystem with the Chinese market at its core. Although the scale of the event was larger than last year, with a wider and more stylish venue, it was still a medium-sized event compared to international conferences such as Consensus held in the US in February, and participants were mainly from the Chinese-speaking community. On-site observation showed that the number of participants and the popularity of the event had slightly decreased compared to last year, reflecting the internal challenges and external adjustments facing the development of Web3. During the event, Legislative Councillor, Mr. Ng Kit-chong, pointed out that "Web3.0 is not short of resources and creativity, but it is very short of talents.

He emphasized that in less than three years, more than 1,000 Web3 companies had registered and developed in Hong Kong, creating a large number of job opportunities, and Cyberport had become a gathering place for more than 100 Web3 enterprises worldwide. However, enterprises were generally facing the structural problem of tight supply of talents. He also mentioned that the Legislative Council would scrutinize a bill on currency stabilization in May, and the relevant legislation was progressing steadily to establish a clearer institutional framework for the virtual asset market in Hong Kong. The Financial Secretary, Mr. Paul Chan, also reiterated that the Government has issued a "Policy Declaration on the Development of Virtual Assets in Hong Kong", with the SFC promoting a licensing regime and the HKMA formulating a stablecoin regulation to sustain the industry. One of the highlights of the Carnival was the presence of Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ether, who made a climactic appearance on the last day of the event, injecting the event with an international perspective and technological impact. Vitalik's presence not only brought attention and encouragement to Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem, but was also viewed as a positive affirmation of Hong Kong's potential by the international development community. Despite a period of market adjustment, Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem demonstrates continued policy momentum and potential for international connectivity. If we can further address the shortage of talent, clarify the direction of regulation, and combine innovation and practicality, Hong Kong is expected to secure its unique position in the global Web3 arena and take its own path of development.

Web3 Accelerating Talent Cultivation: 0xU Helping Youth Match with Industry Demands

The Web3 Career event organized by 0xU was successfully concluded with overwhelming response, the number of participants exceeded that of the last UST event, and the atmosphere was unprecedented. The event successfully gathered university students who are passionate about Web3, and provided practical information and career guidance to help students build up network, prepare for internships and job hunting. 0xU will continue to organize related career activities to help more young people enter the Web3 world. If you are a university student and interested in the Web3 industry, remember to follow us at Monsterblockhk community to get first-hand news of upcoming events and Hong Kong's industrial market.In the future, we will organize more Web3 career development related activities to help more students break through the barriers of information and connections and penetrate into the heart of the industry!

If you missed this event but don't want to miss the next one, you can pre-register now! We will continue to organize more Web3 Career events for students in the future. Whether you are a developer, a business developer, a marketer, or a meme enthusiast, there is always an opportunity for you. If you are interested, please remember to fill in this form. Google Form to get the most up-to-date information!

CZ at BNB Meetup Hong Kong: Warning of MEME Currency Overheating, Reaffirming HODL Value

During the BNB Chain Super Meetup in Hong Kong on April 6 (last Sunday), Binance founder CZ made an unexpected appearance and had an in-depth conversation with community representative "Master Tuo", sharing his views on the current crypto market and the development of the BNB Chain. CZ said that the current speculative enthusiasm of the market for MEME currency is too high, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the whole industry. He emphasized that "fast money and slow money should be balanced" and that investors should focus on fundamentals and practical applications rather than just chasing short-term profits. He believes that HODL (hold on for the long term) is still a sound strategy, especially for cryptocurrencies with strong fundamentals and continued usage scenarios. He cites the example of ETH and BNB, which have outperformed even Bitcoin since their launch, and believes there are still dozens of tokens that have the potential to outperform Bitcoin in the future. Speaking about the development of the BNB Chain, CZ admits that the focus on the BNB Chain has been reduced over the past year due to the need to concentrate on US affairs, and as a result, he missed the rapid response to the meme coin craze in the community. He said that in the future, he will re-invest in ecosystem building, focusing on infrastructure, decentralized finance (DeFi), artificial intelligence (AI) and decentralized science (DeSci). Finally, CZ also gave some advice to novice investors: focus on mainstream currencies, avoid long positions, adopt a batch investment strategy, and at the same time, focus on risk control and mindset building. He emphasized that real investment success comes from long-term participation and continuous learning, not from one-time profiteering.

Hong Kong Regulatory Breakthrough: Licensed Platforms Open Up Crypto Pledge Services, Investors See a Favorable New Landscape

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has announced that it has formally allowed locally licensed Virtual Asset Trading Platforms (VATPs) and Crypto ETFs to provide Staking services. For local investors, this means that they can participate in pledging and earn extra income on legal and regulated platforms in the future. Many Hong Kong people have been pledging through overseas platforms for a long time, but now there is finally a locally compliant option, which not only reduces asset risk, but also meets regulatory requirements. The SFC emphasizes the need for platforms to obtain prior written approval, ensure the safety of users' assets, and transparently disclose risks. As Hong Kong moves towards becoming a crypto-asset center, this not only allows Hong Kong people to safely participate in the new Web3 opportunity, but also shows that local policy is beginning to be friendly to innovation and investment. For those who are interested in holding crypto assets for the long term, this is a new chapter to watch.

Conclusion: Capital is gradually returning, selling pressure is almost over.

On the macro front, trade wars and tariff policies remain fraught with uncertainty. Both the threat of US tariffs on China and the potential risk that the global supply chain may be affected cast a shadow over the market. Such external shocks exacerbate the need for capital to hedge, and may limit the scope for a near-term rebound in risky assets. Looking ahead, the crypto market is likely to remain a Kangaroo Market: bouncing and oscillating with no clear direction. Whether it's the sound of ETFs knocking on doors, the rhythm of giant whales, or the gradual push of regulation, market participants will need to be cautious as they navigate this period of volatility and opportunity. Thank you for reading this analysis report, and I hope we can move forward together under the guidance of information and strategies. If you like this in-depth analysis, please feel free to share it or leave a comment, and we will see you again next time!

Disclaimer

The content of this article is for reference only, investors should exercise independent judgment, invest prudently and at their own risk, this article does not provide or attempt to persuade the audience to do trading or investment basis, the content is for sharing purposes only, and should not be regarded as investment advice.It does not represent the views and position of Monsterblockhk.All information and opinions are current as of the date of the judgment. In addition, if a judgment is rendered on aIn this siteAny content related to virtual asset trading platforms that have not yet obtained a license to operate virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, including but not limited to text introductions, pictures, offers, events, etc., are only available to users outside the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

According to the Hong Kong Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing (Amendment) Ordinance 2022, after June 1, 2023, all centralized virtual asset trading platforms operating in Hong Kong or actively promoting their services to Hong Kong investors will be licensed and regulated by the SFC, and any related unlicensed activities will be a criminal offence. For more information and details of the legislation, users may refer to the SFC website.