ETH「突」破$4,300，牛市回來了嗎？

Welcome back to Monsterblockhk's weekly report. As we pointed out earlier, when market sentiment picks up and capital flows back into the market, the short term will see a "greenish" generalized uptrend pattern. However, this simultaneous rise in capital and prices is often the best time to lock in gains and allow flexibility for pullbacks.

ETF flows rebounded strongly from their lows this week, with the Fear and Greed Indexes approaching the "greedy" zone. Chain liquidity remained active, with both main and emerging chains attracting capital; at the same time, there was a potential coexistence of peace-catalyzing and geopolitical uncertainty on the macro front.

This weekly report will bring you a quick review of the past week's crypto market news, key indicators and macro dynamics, helping you not to miss the dividends in the market's upsurge, but also prudent adjustment of positions, so as to retain the initiative for the next stage of the layout.

ETF fund flows pick up, prudent position adjustments after rebound

According to SoSoValue chart, as of August 7, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a one-day net inflow of US$281 million, with total assets rising to US$150.97 billion and Bitcoin price closing at US$117,462, the chart shows. In the past week, capital flows were weak and then strong: net outflows were recorded from July 31 to August 5, with August 1 seeing a weekly low of US$0.8 billion; then net inflows of about US$120 million were recorded on August 6, expanding to a weekly high on August 7, forming a clear "bottoming out" pattern.

The rapid reversal from net outflows to high inflows reflects the simultaneous rebound in market sentiment and risk appetite, which is in line with the recent trend of mainstream crypto assets rising and capital returning. However, as the current rebound has taken place at a time when prices are close to historical highs, short-term profit-taking and potential downside risks remain a concern. For medium- to long-term holders, it is advisable to trim positions and lock in some gains while the market is still warm, so as to leave liquidity for possible retests in the future, so as to re-locate at a better price, thus achieving the strategic effect of both offense and defense.

ETH at Center of Biggest Storm as Israel Military Liquidated

In the past 24 hours, a total of 92,133 traders were liquidated with a total amount of $253 million, of which $87.33 million was liquidated in long positions and $165 million in short positions. In terms of asset distribution, ETH topped the list with $108 million, BTC ranked second with $20.38 million, XRP showed a long position with $19.8 million, followed by Others ($21.07 million), SOL ($10.84 million) and DOGE ($8.61 million). The largest single liquidation took place in Coin, in the ETH/USDC pair, valued at approximately $3.29 million.

The clearing of short orders was significantly higher than that of long orders, suggesting that the rapid rise in the market caught the bearish side by surprise, echoing the recent rise in most mainstream currencies and the return of capital to the market. However, against the backdrop of both capital and price surges, the short-term sentiment is optimistic, but highly leveraged positions and the risk of chasing inflation are accumulating at the same time. At this time, investors should maintain a flexible strategy, enjoying the dividends of the uptrend at the same time, moderately trimming positions to lock in gains, and reserving capital and mental space for possible short-term pullbacks, so as to re-capture the opportunity to lay out in the next fluctuation.

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Short-term capitalism is on the rise as warmer sentiment approaches greed.

According to CMC data, the Fear and Greed Index climbed to 59 this week, up from 51 in the previous week, and is approaching the "greedy" zone, indicating that market sentiment continues to pick up. The chart shows that as the sentiment index rose, the price of Bitcoin also rebounded from its low point at the beginning of the month, returning to above $119,000, and the volume of transactions, though not expanding significantly, remained stable. This pattern of simultaneous strengthening of sentiment and price reflects the positive cycle of capital return and the rise of most mainstream currencies, with the overall market sentiment clearly favoring the bullish side of the market.

The combination of sentiment recovery and price rebound suggests that confidence has been partially restored after the previous pullback and has attracted short-term capital to the market. However, the fact that the index is approaching the greed zone also implies potential retracement pressure, especially when most currencies have risen consecutively and short-term gains have been accumulated too quickly. While enjoying the rebound, investors should adjust their positions appropriately to lock in some of the gains and retain cash or low-risk assets to take the initiative in re-positioning in the event of a possible technical retracement in the future.

Main and Emerging Chains Attract Capital, Capital Flows Indicate Structural Adjustments

According to Artemis data, as of August 9, Ethereum topped the list of the past 7 days with inflows of nearly $500 million, while Arbitrum and Base recorded inflows of about $300 million and $200 million, respectively, and became the main core chains receiving capital. Berachain, Starknet and Solana also recorded significant net inflows, reflecting the market's increased willingness to allocate to some emerging or high liquidity chains. In terms of net outflows, Unichain led the way with nearly US$75 million, followed by Bitcoin and Sonic, suggesting a structural rebalancing away from high beta or short-term thematic chains.

In terms of liquidity structure, this week saw a continuation of the trend of returning capital to the main chains and emerging chains with growth potential, suggesting that investors are choosing to invest in both stable and high-growth targets when the market picks up, with simultaneous capital attraction by Ethereum, Arbitrum and Base providing short-term liquidity support, and Berachain and Starknet attracting incremental capital driven by narrative and early dividends. Berachain and Starknet are attracting incremental capital driven by narrative and early dividends. However, the withdrawal of funds from some chains such as Unichain and Bitcoin reminds the market to be wary of overheating during the generalized uptrend phase, and adjust positions appropriately to address potential retracement risks. While the current structure is conducive to medium-term bullish continuation, it is also a good time to trim portfolios carefully and lock in some gains to ensure that there is room to add more when the market pulls back.

Inter-chain liquidity continues to be active, with main and emerging chains attracting capital in both directions.

According to deBridge data, interchain flows have remained high over the past week, with Solana once again showing significant outflows, and Ethereum, followed by Base and Arbitrum, forming the most visible cross-chain migration path. Ethereum continues to absorb large inflows from multiple chains, including Solana, Base and Arbitrum, and remains an important exporter to multiple chains, with a solid position as a bridging core. Base continues to be an emerging capital hub, receiving steady inflows from Ethereum, Arbitrum and Avalanche, while Arbitrum is one of the main recipients, but with a high level of outflows, reflecting the fast-moving nature of Layer 2 capital. Arbitrum was one of the major recipients, but outflows were also high, reflecting the fast-moving nature of Layer 2 capital.

Capital flows indicate that the market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment against the backdrop of a general recovery in asset values. Primary chains such as Ethereum have seen capital flows return to the market during the rebound in bullish sentiment, providing a stabilizing anchor for the overall market, while emerging chains such as Base have continued to attract capital due to their high growth potential, boosting activity on the chain. However, the large bi-directional flows between Solana and some Layer 2s also mean that short-term capital has been moving faster in a profitable environment, locking in gains ahead of time. While most asset prices continue to rise, the pace of capital tends to turn more cautious after the rally, and a bit of portfolio trimming to preserve cash flexibility will help maintain the advantage of re-entry in potential future pullbacks.

Chain capital consolidates at high levels, TVL holds steady in $145B area

According to DefiLlama, as of August 9, DeFi's Total Locked Position (TVL) stood at $145.907B, a significant increase compared to the previous week, and remained at a relatively high level. The curve of the past 7 days shows that TVL stabilized quickly after a small drop in the beginning of August, reflecting that there was no large-scale withdrawal of capital from the chain due to price fluctuations. During the same period, the total market capitalization of the stablecoin was $269.703B, which is still at a high level during the year. The 24-hour trading volume of DEX and Perps was $13.759B and $17.241B respectively, which is lower than the peak in the previous period, but the trading activity is still resilient, indicating that the market continues to be enthusiastic in trading.

TVL is consolidating sideways in a high range, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from previous fear mongering to cautious optimism. Capital has chosen to maintain chain allocation while retaining flexibility to cope with the fast-moving market. Combined with the recent synchronized uptrend in most crypto assets, it is clear that capital is actively participating in the rebound, but is not betting against it, reserving cash for potential pullbacks. While the current environment is conducive to medium-term bullishness, a modest reduction in some high volatility positions and locking in gains during the full recovery phase will help to preserve the leverage and advantage of re-entry during future adjustments.

Structural rebound may be at risk of shaking out as market soars

According to Crypto Bubbles data as of August 9, the crypto market continued its strong rebound this week, with most mainstream and high liquidity targets recording significant gains, including MNT (+49.7%), PENDLE (+37.2%), AERO (+36.7%), and PUMP (+28.9%), POL (+24.2%) and LINK (+22.8%), and core assets such as ETH (+14.6%) and BTC (+2.5%) also rose. The gains were broadly distributed, covering DeFi, L1/L2 public chains and emerging tokens, indicating that capital sentiment has warmed up across the board and risk appetite has risen significantly.

This round of generalized gains and broad-based rotation confirms that our strategy of "staying low" over the past two weeks is working well, but too rapid a rise could also create short-term retracement pressure. Historical experience shows that after large double-digit rallies, the market tends to enter a high level of oscillations or even technical retracements to digest profit-taking and leverage. Investors are advised to adjust their positions appropriately, lock in a portion of their profits, and retain liquidity to cope with possible retracement opportunities, so as to remain flexible and proactive in subsequent volatility.

RMB Security website is officially launched, with further functionality upgrades.

Binance's newly launched Binance Wallet (Web) version offers a seamless on-chain trading experience through the browser, with the most notable feature being "Meme Rush", which allows users to explore potential cryptocurrencies from multiple launch platforms in real-time. In addition, the integration of modular tools such as real-time wallet address tracking, X (formerly Twitter) sentiment information, and Alpha Token preemptive trading allows users to keep track of the market with their desktop devices, allowing for multi-line monitoring and rapid response. With the Secure Auto Sign (SAS) seven-day no-repeat signature function, the transaction process is greatly simplified, enhancing both efficiency and security.

Meme Rush not only opens up the opportunity for early entry into the mini-currency market, but is also highly consistent with the trend of community-oriented trading, highlighting Binance's proactive deployment of the Social-Fi craze. This feature accelerates the traffic conversion potential for content creators and early bird traders, and is expected to be the launching pad for the next wave of the mini-economy. With the maturity of SAS technology and the advantages of desktop deployment, more highly interactive features are expected to be launched in the future, which means that Binance Wallet (Web) is not just a temporary issue, but a long-term pivot for the chain ecosystem to move towards community-driven and efficient operations, and investors are advised to pay close attention to its development trend.

Solana Seeker: Real-World Application Scenarios for Web3 Mobile Practices

Solana Mobile's newest smartphone, the Seeker, shipped this week and has recorded over 150,000 pre-orders in a short period of time, far surpassing its predecessor, the Saga, which only sold about 20,000 units. The Seeker is built on the TEEPIN architecture, which emphasizes decentralized security and application distribution, and features a built-in hardware wallet, Seed Vault, Genesis NFT and support for over 2,500 dApps, demonstrating its comprehensive design for Web3 users and developers, With built-in hardware wallet, Seed Vault, Genesis NFT and support for over 2,500 dApps, Seeker demonstrates its comprehensive design for Web3 users and developers. Priced between $$450 and $$500, the handset is being sold in over 50 countries and is estimated to generate at least $$67.5 million in gross revenue for Solana Mobile.

This product not only represents hardware innovation, but also demonstrates the feasibility of applying blockchain to daily life. The TEEPIN framework replaces centralized trust with cryptographic authentication to ensure the authenticity of users and applications, challenging the monopoly of traditional tech giants over app stores, while the SKR governance token allows the community to participate in the platform's evolution and revenue distribution, further embodying the spirit of Web3's "bottom-up" approach. With the rising demand for users to manage their digital assets on their own, Seeker is not only a response to the market trend, but also a key step in promoting the practical use of Web3 cell phones, which is worthy of other crypto projects' attention and reference.

The Price of Lost Private Keys: A Billion-Dollar Lesson Learned

In 2013, James Howells, a British man, accidentally threw away a hard drive storing 8,000 Bitcoins during a routine office cleanup. Today, the asset is worth more than $950 million, and by 2030 it is estimated to be worth more than $8 billion. However, after twelve years of searching and legal proceedings, he finally gave up trying to recover the hard drive and missed the opportunity to raise $75 million by turning 21% of it into Ordinals NFT. The community widely criticized him for his negligence, even describing it as a "billion-dollar mistake," highlighting the critical and irreversible nature of crypto asset storage management.

This incident confirms a core concept: private key is sovereignty, and properly storing private keys (or seed words) is the only way to protect the inviolability of digital assets. Hard disks can fail, platforms can fall, but owning the private key is the same as owning the asset itself. Therefore, investors should ensure that their seed words are stored offline and avoid storing them in the cloud or on unsecured devices, or even disclosing them to others. The wealth of the crypto world cannot be lost, and Howells' story is a stark reminder to market participants that security awareness is one of the most fundamental and easily overlooked lessons in the Web3 world.

Stablecoin craze makes a comeback: USDe is the newest addition to the bulls' spotlight

The stablecoin sector is enjoying a double boost from policy dividends and traditional financial backing. The USDe stablecoin launched by Ethena Labs has seen its market capitalization surge by 75% in the last three weeks to $9.3 billion, officially leaping to the world's third-largest stablecoin behind USDT and USDC. According to The Block, the USDe has already surpassed the FDUSD in terms of market share, with key factors behind it including Trump's signing of the GENIUS Act, which provides regulatory clarity for US dollar-linked tokens. According to The Block, USDe has surpassed FDUSD in terms of market share, and the key factors behind this include President Trump's signing of the GENIUS Act, which provides regulatory clarity for US dollar-pegged tokens, and the establishment of a custodianship partnership between Ethena and Anchorage Digital, which has made Ethena a synthetic stablecoin with compliant issuance, and the $9.4 billion surpassed by TVL, which is ranked as the seventh largest agreement in DeFi, reflecting that institutional funds are pouring into the ecosystem.

The rise of USDe not only demonstrates the attractiveness of stable currency assets for capital in the early stages of a bull market, but also signals the gradual penetration of TradFi into the crypto space. 10% to 19% APY yield model offered by USDe attracts capital inflows looking for higher returns compared to the weak US bond yields. Its "fully collateralized + hedged position" structure has successfully avoided a repeat of the UST crash, and its multi-asset collateralization and exchange liquidity support have further reinforced its stability. If overall market funding and policy support continue to favor the stable currency space, the circuit is expected to be a key driver in this bull market and serve as a bridge for the convergence of DeFi, CeFi and TradFi.

Macro News

U.S.-Russia talks show signs of life, ceasefire could be a positive market catalyst

This week, US President Donald Trump said after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that "significant progress has been made on Ukraine", describing the talks as "extremely productive". The meeting took place before the ceasefire deadline, and the two sides exchanged "constructive signals," signaling that a peace deal may be entering a substantive phase. Trump emphasized that "the war must end", and the White House said he was willing to meet directly with Putin and Zelensky. Even though a ceasefire has yet to be confirmed, expectations of a cooling of tensions have been brewing, creating a potentially positive environment for risk assets.

If the U.S. and Russia successfully broker a ceasefire, it will be a strong positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency market as a whole. The peace process will ease geopolitical uncertainty and reduce the need for risk aversion, which is expected to lead to a renewed flow of capital into risky assets and strengthen the upside momentum of mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin. Historical experience has shown that the easing of major geopolitical tensions is often accompanied by a shift in optimism. Combined with the current macroeconomic upturn, favorable policies and capital inflows, a cessation of fighting could add fuel to the next bull market, especially boosting investor confidence and allocations to risky assets.

Deteriorating U.S.-India relations may exacerbate global tensions, becoming a potential negative for crypto markets.

US President Donald Trump recently slapped tariffs as high as $50% on India, which he said was aimed at penalizing India's purchases of Russian oil, accusing it of 'financing the Russian war machine'. While India and the US had set a target of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion at the beginning of the year, it has now taken a sharp turn for the worse. The new tariff measures came into effect on August 27, and Trump's public criticism that India's economy is "dead" has led India to promise to take "all necessary measures" to protect its national interests.

If this situation worsens, it will put pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Contrary to the potential benefits of a ceasefire in Ukraine and Russia, a deterioration in US-India relations that triggers a new round of economic or geopolitical conflict will intensify panic in the market, with capital flowing into safe-haven assets and weakening appetite for risky assets. In particular, India is the world's third-largest oil importer, and if there are disruptions in the energy chain, it may push up inflationary expectations and induce another adjustment in global assets.

Chained Data Analysis:

Key Price Band: Weak Demand in the 110K-116K Area Could Be a Hidden Worry for the Market

From the URPD distribution on the chart, we can see that Bitcoin has indeed attracted significant "buy low" behavior since the end of July when the price dipped to around $112K. According to the data, about 120,000 BTC were bought in the $112K-$114K price band since the rebound, which pushed the price back above $114K and formed short-term support. However, it is worth noting that the overall cumulative supply density between $110K and $116K is still on the low side, which is relatively thin compared to other historically high trading bands, constituting a clear "Air-Gap". This phenomenon suggests that more buying is needed to fill the demand vacuum if the current price level is to be stabilized, otherwise the stability of this support will be challenged.

From a chain perspective, such a gap means that if the price falls below $110K again, it could trigger a downtrend in the form of a liquidity vacuum, which in turn would intensify the selling pressure on Bitcoin and torrents. Without new capital in this "under-accumulated" area, it will be difficult to build a solid long defense in the near term. Investors should keep a close eye on this area to see if more U TXO support builds up, otherwise the market is bound to face a deeper correction if the support is lost, and the decline of the torrents will likely increase in tandem, reflecting that the overall market risk has not yet been fully lifted.

Key Cost Benchmark: $116.9K Becomes Long Defense, Failure of which May Trigger a Secondary Correction

As can be seen from the chart, the realized price-cost basis for new buyers over the past one to four weeks has been concentrated around $116.9K. This area has not only been a key entry level for recent bulls, but has also formed strong short-term support. According to Glassnode, the average cost for 1-week to 1-month holders as of August 4, 2025 is at this price, indicating that the majority of short-term funds are still in the break-even zone. A successful move back above $116.9K would represent a return to buying dominance and set the stage for a subsequent rebound.

If price stays below $116.9K, the market's interpretation of this failed phase could trigger further profit-taking and stop-loss selling pressure, leading to a deeper correction. At this point, the next more structural support is expected to fall back to the $110K area, echoing the previous chain of supply accumulation. Investors should carefully weigh the risk-reward ratio, appropriately batch the bag before $116.9K is broken, and set aside capital for possible retests and fluctuations to avoid excessive exposure to a potential secondary correction.

Speculative frenzy is on the wane as permanent contract funding rates cool across the board

As shown in the chart, the consolidated funding rate for the BTC perpetual contract has clearly broken away from the previous high range. Between the end of last year and the first half of this year, the funding rate once surged up to 0.04% to 0.06%, reflecting the market's continued pursuit of leveraged long positions. However, since July 2025, rates on major exchanges such as Binance, Bybit and Bitfinex have quickly converged back to the 0% to 0.01% range. This downward trend indicates that even if the price of Bitcoin rises to over $110,000, market sentiment is no longer willing to pay a premium for leveraged long positions, and short-term speculative momentum has cooled.

This round of capital rate reductions signals the end of the long side speculative frenzy, and the overall market confidence in the upside market has shrunk significantly. With the long side no longer actively paying premium, short-term leverage liquidity will become weaker, and future price support will rely more on spot demand rather than high leverage. Investors should carefully assess the leverage level of their positions to avoid being caught in passive stop-losses due to the zeroing of the capital charge rate and the weakening of the long side's confidence.

Ether Chain Activity Hits Record High, Price Not Yet Fully Reflecting Fundamental Strengths

The number of daily trades in Ether has recently surpassed record highs, reaching over 1.55 million per day, indicating a sharp increase in network usage and chain activity (see red trend and black box in the chart). At the same time, the price remains under pressure from previous highs, currently trading at around $3,611, and has yet to break above the highs of 2021 and 2022 (see orange line in chart). This divergence between fundamentals and price performance highlights that Ether may be in a potential momentum-building phase.

The surge in trading activity reflects the continued consolidation of its position at the center of the L1 infrastructure. Mainstream L2 scaling solutions such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base, as well as a large number of DeFi, NFT, and AI protocols are built on top of the Ethernet ecosystem. This network effect and infrastructure dependency makes Ether a strategic support value in the overall crypto market. If the price retraces to $2,800 or below in the near term, it will be a golden zone for long-term investment and deployment, especially if the on-chain data remains strong.

Overheated sentiment accumulates, short-term correction is favorable for healthy market adjustment

According to CryptoQuant's latest sentiment chart, there is a clear long bias in Binance's long/short position sentiment, with a significant buildup of representative green bars, in sync with Bitcoin's price movement from 112K to 115K (see white line vs. green/red bars in the chart). This reflects that traders are generally optimistic and prefer to chase long positions. Combined with historical data, such a surge in sentiment is often accompanied by a short-term price correction, showing a typical anti-market rhythm of "selling in greed and buying in fear".

This phenomenon is essentially a sign of a structural correction: when market sentiment is overly bullish, profit-taking and short-selling pressures rise in tandem, leading to an increase in short-term selling pressure. In particular, Binance is the world's largest trading platform in terms of trading volume, and its user sentiment can be seen as a thermometer of the overall market. If the current situation continues, the short-term price could retest below 110K to clean out the fickle capital and create a healthy base for further upward movement. Investors are advised to watch this correction window as a quality positioning opportunity rather than a signal of panic.

Conclusion

This week's capital recovery and price rebound confirms our previous expectation of a short-term greenish trend. However, behind the greenish chart, there is also the risk of short-term profit-taking and overheated sentiment. Whether or not you can stay calm in the heat of the moment, take your money out of your pockets and trade into a stable currency will determine whether or not you still have an advantage in the next wave of volatility. Bull markets don't always go smoothly. Pullbacks are the true test of patience and strategy. Thank you for reading this far, but the market may not be as calm as it seems - watch out for capital flows, sentiment changes and macro-undercurrents, because the real key opportunities often come quietly after the noise.

If you've learned something from this week's update, or if you've learned more about the market, feel free to follow us on Monsterblockhk! Twitter and join our Telegram GroupsWe will be able to share and discuss the next wave of opportunities!

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