美伊短暫停火未止波動，加密市場情緒起伏加劇

Welcome back to Monsterblockhk's weekly newsletter. This week, the author has finally finished the examination, and the weekly report is officially back. I hope you have gained some insights from this week's report and improved your understanding and judgment of the market. Without further ado, let's go straight to this week's highlights.

The crypto market is gradually showing signs of stabilization as Bitcoin spot ETF funds have been steadily returning for several days and market sentiment has gradually recovered from extreme fear to neutral territory. Although short-term volatility and macro uncertainty have yet to fully subside, the overall market is completing a healthy round of sentiment and leverage cleansing, providing a relatively safe low-coverage opportunity for medium- to long-term investors.

This week, we will continue our core viewpoint: "Take Profits in Greed, Position in Fear". Through the analysis of on-chain capital flows, ETF subscriptions and price behavior, we will propose practical positioning strategies for the current market environment.

ETF Funding Steadily Returns, Warming Sentiment Welcomes the Intermediate Deployment Period

According to SoSoValue, as of June 26th, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of US$$2.28 billion, adding momentum to the consecutive days of capital inflow. This week, ETF funds turned positive, and on June 24th and 25th, daily inflows reached US$$593 million and US$$542 million, driving total assets to US$$133.53 billion, reflecting the rebound in institutional investor confidence. During the same period, BTC price also stabilized at $107,533, showing anti-shock performance.

In terms of fund flows, the steady net inflows into ETFs not only offset last week's panic selling pressure, but also showed that the market is gradually recovering from "fear" to a "neutral" turning point in sentiment. At the same time, our strategy of "sell on greed, play on fear", which we have emphasized in the past few weeks, is once again validated - when the market returns to rationality from extreme sentiment, medium to long term strategies such as DCA can effectively mitigate the risk and capture the next wave of uptrend opportunities.

Long leverage takes a beating as market shakes up, releasing room for lower pickups

According to Coinglass data, as of Friday, a total of 88,739 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with the total amount of liquidated positions reaching $103.8 million, of which the long position dominated, reaching $144 million, while the short position was $59.46 million. In terms of mainstream currencies, ETH had the highest amount of $$5,580,000, followed by BTC's $$37,790,000, indicating that ETH's leverage and volatility have increased significantly recently. The single largest burst occurred in Binance platform ETHUSDT contract, the amount of $2.82 million U.S. dollars.

The current liquidation wave mainly stems from the uncertainty on the macro front after a few days of optimistic rebound, which led to a sharp liquidation of long positions due to over-concentration of long positions. However, unlike previous panic liquidations, this one has not triggered extreme sentiment fluctuations, but rather indicates that the market is undergoing a "fear-to-neutral" period of calm correction.

Personally, I have always emphasized, "Take profits in greed, and lay low in fear". If you've been bagging highs in the last couple of weeks, the last two weeks have been the ideal time to cautiously restart DCA. While short-term volatility remains, a market that has been deleveraged is often more conducive to a true rebound and the rebuilding of a medium to long-term trend.

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Sentiment picks up but not out of lows, macro guidance still key to next step

According to CMC data, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 49 (Neutral) as of Friday, not much changed from yesterday's 50 and last week's 48, but significantly lower than last month's 68 (Greed). Sentiment has rebounded from extreme fear to neutral over the past 30 days, coinciding with the recovery of the BTC price from its early month low of $102K to above $108K, suggesting that the market is gradually recovering from the sentiment mismatch that occurred in the early days after the overheating.

From the chart, we can see that the index slipped rapidly to near "fear" territory in early June, accompanied by bottoming prices and volume amplification, while sentiment gradually stabilized after mid-June and entered "neutral" territory, representing that most investors remained on the sidelines rather than being fully bearish. This structural turnaround has not restored confidence, but it has completed the initial short-term purge.

As we say, "Get out when the market is greedy and get in when the market is fearful". If you missed the fear lows in early June, this stabilization phase is at least the beginning of a re-watch and a batch approach. Stabilizing sentiment is not the same as restarting the market, which is likely to remain volatile, especially against the backdrop of high macro-uncertainty. DCA strategy and calm judgment are the strongest underpinnings at this stage.

Chain Funding Turns Neutral: Ethereum Steadily Absorbing Capital, Solana Under Pressure to Retract

As we enter the second half of June, market sentiment is moving from "panic" to "neutral", but macroeconomic uncertainty is still suppressing capital risk appetite, and there is a structural shift in capital flows on the chain. According to the latest data, Solana recorded a net outflow of US$136 million and Base withdrew US$31.54 million this week (7D), indicating that the strong chain in the early stage is starting to see profit-taking and capital reevaluation, and the market is still wary of high beta assets.

On the other hand, Ethereum continued to show its gold-absorbing effect this week, recording an inflow of $497 million. Even though the net inflow was not high (~31.4 million), it shows that its role as an "on-chain safe haven" is still supportive. It is worth noting that emerging chains such as Arbitrum (+16.61 million), Linea (+8.37 million) and Optimism (+6.65 million) all recorded positive inflows, reflecting that some funds are starting to invest in the technology potential chains and anticipate medium to long term returns.

Generally speaking, this week's chain capital dynamics showed a pattern of "risk aversion to reallocation": after withdrawing from risky assets, some capital shifted to the main chains with network effect and ecological integrity. This is in line with the current market rhythm of "deploy at low point, profit at high point". Investors can pay attention to long-term growth infrastructure assets such as Ethereum and Arbitrum while market sentiment is still under pressure, so as to lay the groundwork for the next wave of capital inflow in advance.

Chain Capital Flow Analysis: Solana Stabilizes as a Hub, Ethereum Absorbs Gold Without Falling

Against the backdrop of market sentiment shifting from "fear" to "neutrality", capital flows on the chain continue to show a trend of restructuring and repositioning. According to deBridge's latest capital flow chart (6/21-6/27), capital is accelerating across multiple public chains, with Solana once again consolidating its role as a liquidity hub, Ethereum as the largest recipient of capital, followed by Base and Arbitrum, forming a clear focus for capital inflows.

Looking at the distribution of capital flow lines in the chart, Solana, Arbitrum, and Ethereum are the main "source chains", with a large amount of capital being imported into Ethereum, and the width of its inflow line is obvious, showing that it is still the most trusted safe haven in the market. Meanwhile, Solana once again demonstrated its dual role this week, as both a source of large amounts of capital and a provider of transfer liquidity to other chains (e.g. Arbitrum, Base, Optimism), showing that its network performance and capital efficiency continue to be recognized by the market.

Base continues to perform well and continues to absorb liquidity from Solana and Ethereum, further confirming that its DeFi ecology and low fee advantage is attracting medium-term allocation capital. In contrast, HyperEVM, Cronos zkEVM and other chains have seen their flows shrink significantly, reflecting the market's gradual exit from high-risk ecosystems and redeployment to main chains with economies of scale and well-established infrastructure.

Summarizing the trend of capital flow and the current market sentiment, this wave of inter-chain migration clearly corresponds to this week's theme: "Buy at low point, re-deploy in correction". Although the market has stabilized from extreme panic to a low neutral level, the macro uncertainty has not been lifted, and capital is choosing to hedge its bets by allocating to highly reliable chains such as Ethereum, Base and Solana, which is precisely the risk-adjusted preparation for the next wave of rebound.

TVL retraces slightly, capital turns to wait-and-see stage

Total Volume Locked (TVL) on the DeFi chain declined slightly this week, as the market entered a further consolidation and wait-and-see phase. According to DeFiLlama, as of June 27, DeFi TVL was $110.549B, down 0.45% over the past 24 hours, and the chart shows that TVL has been on a moderate downward trend since June 21, and it is difficult to break through the previous highs in the short term, which reflects that capital has started to cautiously reassess its position after the continuous rebound.

Despite a slight decrease in the total locked-in position, the trading activities on the chain remained steady: the total market capitalization of the stable currency remained high at $252.93B, and the 24-hour trading volumes of DEXs and Perps were $13.189B and $9.756B respectively, indicating that capital has not been withdrawn from the market but shifted to more liquid and risk-controllable trading venues. Inflows into the ETFs in the chart have also remained stable at a high level for several consecutive days ($200.3M over 24 hours), further confirming that institutional or long-term investors are taking advantage of the low level.

The slight decline in TVL is highly correlated with the current market sentiment, which is in the transition from "fear to neutrality". Although the overall sentiment is picking up, capital is more inclined to wait and test the market before the macroeconomic and policy variables are clarified, and the phenomenon that capital is not out, but only shifting structures, echoes this week's theme of "lay lows, don't chase highs for greed". The phenomenon of capital not being released, but only shifting structures, is also in line with this week's theme of "Lay low, don't chase highs and get greedy" DeFi market is entering a strategy deployment period, and the oscillating consolidation of TVL is more like a healthy correction after a rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Market oscillator pattern maintained as long/short divergence widens amid market rotation

The crypto market remained in a volatile pattern this week, but individual currencies showed strong performance, demonstrating the selective deployment of capital. According to Crypto Bubbles data, as of June 27, SEI (+44.1%), SYRUP (+20.3%), APT (+19%), FORM (+16.5%) and other currencies have led the way in terms of gains, indicating that the market's risk appetite is partially recovering, and capital is flowing into items that are more resilient and driven by news or narrative. capital flows into more resilient, news- or narrative-driven items.

Nevertheless, many tokens still showed downward pressure on the overall market, such as CRV (-13.3%), JTO (-12.7%), SPX (-12.2%), ENA (-12%), etc., reflecting that although the market has turned to a neutral sentiment, items with poor fundamentals or high pressure on the fundraising process are still handled stringently and a full-fledged rebound is yet to be seen. Such a divergent pattern indicates that investor confidence is still shaky, with reservations about macro uncertainties.

If we look at capital behavior, most of the leading gainers are emerging targets with strong liquidity or narrative themes, indicating that the market is in the transition period of "panic recovery → selective optimism", and the corresponding sentiment is gradually shifting from extreme fear to neutrality. In conclusion, the market is still searching for a bottom, and although it is not in a full recovery phase, individual targets are showing signs of capital rush. If you are able to capitalize on the low point of sentiment, you may be in a good position to take advantage of the next wave of the market.

Convergence of Traditional Finance and Crypto Takes Another Step: Wyoming's Stable Coin, WYST, Signals Future Trends

The state of Wyoming will soon launch the nation's first state-legislated, state-issued, and state-regulated stablecoin, $WYST, signaling the accelerating integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial and public finance structure and a clear trend toward the convergence of crypto and traditional finance. According to the official announcement, the Wyoming Stablecoin Act will be passed as early as 2023, and is scheduled to be officially launched on August 20, 2025.

$WYST will utilize an over-provisioning system (102%) with reserve assets managed by Franklin Templeton Group covering cash, treasury bonds, and repurchase agreements, with all interest going to the Education Fund. The design not only maintains stability, but also gives it a public face. The project will also utilize LayerZero cross-chain technology for deployment on public chains such as Aptos and Sei, representing the first time a government has chosen a crypto public infrastructure as a financial issuance vehicle.

Unlike traditional private sector-oriented stablecoins (e.g. USDT, USDC), the significance of WYST is not only that it is "state-backed", but also that the governance and usage of WYST has shifted to the public finance structure, and for the first time, the public sector has been involved in the technical decisions of "chain selection" and "cross-chain deployment". This "stablecoin-as-digital-bond" model not only strengthens the compliance and transparency of stablecoin assets, but also implies that crypto is moving from the financial fringe to the core institutions of the government, with far-reaching institutional implications.

From Circle's upcoming IPO, JP Morgan's implementation of JPMD, the Trump family's launch of USD1, and now WYST's state-level launch, it is clear to see that the integration of Stablecoin with traditional financial institutions has been extended from the corporate level to the government level. This trend of integration means that stablecoins will become the most policy-supported and practically applicable crypto asset class in the world in the coming years. The involvement of the public sector may also accelerate the willingness of traditional capital to invest in public chains and ecosystems, further increasing the value and breadth of use of blockchain infrastructure.

Trends and Lessons: Circle's Early Adopter Bonuses

Circle's dramatic share price volatility has once again reminded the market that the rule of "early entrants get the biggest dividends" still holds true, but at the same time, chasing highs in an atmosphere of greed is often accompanied by high risk, so rational investment and risk tolerance are still the key. But then it plunged 15% in just two days, dropping nearly a quarter from its highs, and is now trading at $222 (still more than 600% above the IPO price). This has resulted in significant losses for many traditional investors.

The rally and fall not only demonstrated investors' high expectations for the stablecoin and its issuers, but also exposed the extreme reactions to the interplay of market sentiment fluctuations and regulatory uncertainty. Early participants were able to set up their positions when the price of the currency was low and the news had not yet exploded, enjoying a full growth cycle and doubling of returns. However, those who entered the market when the market was high and greed was pervasive could easily fall victim to the short-term correction. This correction is another wake-up call for investors: no investment should be made beyond the limits of what can be afforded in terms of losses.

As an important bridge between the crypto market and traditional finance, the performance of stablecoin issuers can be regarded as the wind ball of the overall market enthusiasm, and the sharp rise and fall of Circle reflects the market's ambivalence towards stablecoin's long-term potential and short-term bubbles. When the BIS questioned that stablecoins could not replace central bank currencies, it also warned that the current enthusiasm does not equate to stable value. On the other hand, during last week's crypto panic, many asset prices fell to a reasonable or even undervalued range, which is a golden opportunity for long term investment, reminding investors that it is better to invest in the midst of "fear" rather than chasing the high side of the market in the midst of "greed".

Ledger's NBA Spurs Experience Realizes the Trend of Integration of Communication and Chains

Ledger's jersey sponsorship agreement with the NBA's Tottenham Spurs reaffirms that the crypto industry is penetrating the mainstream market, especially in the sports and cultural sectors, and promoting a deeper integration of the cryptosphere with traditional industries. Ledger, one of the world's largest cold wallet brands, announced that it has signed a multi-year partnership with the San Antonio Spurs, which will see the brand's logo featured on jerseys, fan merchandise, and community events, with CEO Pascal Gauthier emphasizing that the U.S. is the company's largest market, and that the partnership will help to appeal to the "next generation of sovereign individuals". The U.S. market reportedly accounts for 40% of Ledger's revenue, and its products guard more than 20% of crypto assets worldwide.

Ledger's move is more than just a branding strategy, it's a crypto-corporation's way of expanding its audience. The choice of the Spurs, a team with a highly international background and French star power, echoes Ledger's French roots and leverages the popularity of basketball stars like Victor Wembanyama to spread the brand's benefits. The move also shows that during the post-FTX collapse period, mature projects are actively rebuilding public trust and gaining new growth momentum by connecting with mainstream culture.

The resurgence of sports sponsorship can be seen as a sign of renewed confidence among crypto companies, as SportQuake data shows that total sports sponsorship in the crypto industry will increase by 20% annually to $565 million in 2024/25, reflecting the overall market's reassessment of the long-term value of crypto assets. Tether's stake in Juventus and Gate's sponsorship of the F1 Red Bull team, like Ledger's partnership, have strengthened the penetration of crypto brands among mainstream consumers, and signaled an irreversible trend of integration between the chain industry and traditional industries, building a stronger foundation and a more recognized entry point to the crypto asset market.

Web3 Behind the High-Speed Development: The Double-Edged Sword that Fuels Criminal Activities

Although Web3 has attracted global attention with its core values of decentralization and freedom of innovation, its anonymity and lack of regulation are gradually degenerating into a hotbed of money laundering and criminal propaganda for unscrupulous elements. According to Protos, Professor Moriarty, a well-known Russian darknet operator, recently issued the cryptocurrency $MORI through the Solana blockchain, combining its YouTube channel with more than 3.2 million subscribers with a criminal brand, and setting up a community of more than 35,000 people on Telegram to promote the currency and educate on criminal content. Security researcher Vladimir S. has also confirmed this behavior and expressed shock at the blatant combination of marketing and crime.

The emergence of $MORI shows that while Web3 has lowered the barriers to entrepreneurship and increased financial democratization, it has also amplified the marketing and fundraising capabilities of criminal organizations. In the past, the dark web was limited to secret transactions, but now, with the combination of blockchain technology and social platforms, criminal content is directly linked to virtual assets, making it difficult to trace and difficult to monitor. What's more, these criminal fan currencies are even taught to new users in the name of "education", legitimizing illegal activities and posing a long-term threat to the financial order.

This incident reflects the systemic risks inherent in the crypto market. Although the Web3 domain is full of innovative potential, its open nature also makes it vulnerable to abuse. Without strong regulations and cross-border cooperation mechanisms, the reputation of the market as a whole will be affected, which in turn will inhibit the entry of capital and the realization of applications. In order to maintain the healthy development of the market in the future, it is necessary to strike a balance between decentralization and the rule of law, so as to prevent Web3 from becoming a "paradise of digital crime" due to its excessive freedom.

Follow in the footsteps of the giant whales in times of fear.

When the market is in panic and investors' confidence is low, it is often the best time for organizations to "bottom out", and SharpLink Gaming has once again increased its position in Ether, demonstrating a typical "counter-trend layout" mindset, reminding retail investors that they should be vigilant - instead of chasing the market greed, it is better to lay out their positions in fear and follow the "big players". The

According to reports, SharpLink Gaming has increased its ETH position twice in a short span of one week, reaching a total of 188,000 ETH, making it the largest Ether position among listed companies. In the latest increase, the company purchased 12,207 ETH at an average price of $2,513, totaling more than $30 million, which was funded by equity financing during the same period. All positions have been pledged and the Company has begun to realize the proceeds of the pledge. The move comes at a time of heightened skepticism about the company's strategy, with its share price falling nearly 90% from its highs, and demonstrates the team's high level of confidence in the long-term value of Ether.

SharpLink's action once again proves an iron law of the market: Those who enter the market when they are afraid will gain, while those who enter the market when they are greedy will suffer. SharpLink is not a single entity, its large team and financial planning ability make it a market indicator. When such an organization chooses to continue to increase its investment, it often indicates that the medium to long-term bullish trend has been thoroughly evaluated by its internal management. If retail investors continue to follow market sentiment blindly, they will be prone to buying high and selling low, and stepping into the wrong rhythm.

SharpLink's continuous investment in ETH is an important signal to the crypto market as a whole: even though the market is in turmoil and the price has not yet rebounded strongly, long-term capital has quietly returned to the market, especially focusing on asset classes that have the potential for public chain applications and the basis for pledge income. The entry of institutional capital is usually a sign that the bottom of the market trend is gradually forming. For retail investors, it is important to follow the rule of "don't buy in greed, don't invest money you can't afford to lose", and learn to observe opportunities in fear in order to be well-positioned for the next wave of the bull market.

Macro News

Crypto not to blame as geopolitical war crushes market confidence

Investor confidence has been steadily eroding amidst successive geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainty, leading to a drying up of overall liquidity. This is not the fault of a single asset class, but rather a macro reaction to "declining aggregate demand". According to Reuters, the U.S. has recently considered launching "restricted strikes" against Iranian targets in retaliation for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Against the backdrop of uncertainty in Ukraine and Israel/Hamas, this "freedom to strike unilaterally" has led to a high degree of general unease about the future, with delays in corporate and household spending, and a double dip in consumption and investment, which is a typical textbook scenario for a decline in Aggregate Demand (AD).

We are in the midst of a "miss kill" period, where many of the projects in our pipeline are fundamentally sound, with ongoing development, but are being priced out of the market due to macro headwinds. Historical cycles have shown that buying when the market is in extreme fear often maximizes returns during the subsequent "sentiment recovery" phase. From the halving of Bitcoin, to CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) pilots, to the expansion of Ether L2, blockchain technology is steadily advancing. The fact that cryptocurrency prices are tied up in "external war and policy risks" suggests that the market is not so much not bullish on crypto as it is unable to withstand any more uncertainty. As one trader put it, "We're not running away from crypto, we're being driven out of the market by reality.

Consumer confidence and business investment will not recover unless geopolitical conflicts are mitigated. Only when the fires cool down will there be room for aggregate demand to rebuild and for asset prices to rebound. From what we've seen so far, the cease-fire is starting to pay off, US bond rates are falling, and there's a short window of opportunity for risky assets. If you insist on investing in times of extreme panic, this may be the beginning of a turnaround. Remember: we buy when it's cheap and sell when it's crazy. Now is the time to be "cheap", so keep an eye out for projects with a better return pattern.

Crypto Markets Become a Playground for Macro Tug-of-War as Global Clouds Change

Even though Bitcoin has undergone a quadrennial halving and the technology on the chain is developing at a rapid pace, the price of the currency should be entering an upward cycle in terms of supply and application, Trump's tweet has triggered shockwaves in the global market, illustrating that his comments have become a "variable" in the modern macro-economy. According to Reuters, Trump called out "China's total violation of the agreement" on Truth Social, triggering a surge in risk aversion in the market. Previously, the U.S. and China had just reached an agreement to hold off on tax hikes in mid-May, and the market had already turned optimistic as a result of his "pigeonholing", but was completely crushed by this sudden "hawkish turn".

The supply contraction effect of the halving of Bitcoin is beginning to be felt, and with the US Federal Reserve expected to initiate a rate cut in Q3-Q4, this has historically provided a good opportunity for Altcoins to catch up. However, the market is still shrouded in macro fears, with the market capitalization of many high quality currencies actually significantly below their intrinsic value based on chain activity and technological advances. We are entering an era where markets are "policy-driven," with sanctions, trade barriers, and tariff reversals all acting as tempo-makers for crypto. Trump is a player in the world economy, and the markets are his toys.

For investors, instead of waiting for macro sentiment to repair itself, it's better to get ahead of the game before the fear subsides, especially for the cryptocurrency market, which is just waiting for the U.N. interest rate to change direction, which will be the starting point for a new round of capital rotation. While global capital is bouncing between Trump and macro news, crypto projects with real technical support and community consensus are waiting for a turning point. With interest rate adjustments on the horizon, idle capital in the cryptocurrency space, and extreme fear - this structural low point may be the beginning of a historic move.

Chained Data Analysis:

Quiet as Deep Water: Time to Start Planning as Markets Return to Fear

While Bitcoin has steadily risen above the psychological threshold of $100K and is only 6% away from its all-time high, the market appears strong on the surface, but the underlying sentiment and activity on the chain is unusually low. According to the data, despite the high price, the number of daily trades since 2025 has dropped sharply from the peak of 734,000 to around 320,000 to 500,000, with network activity weakening significantly, creating a disconnect between price and fundamentals. This silence is not bullishness, but rather a general return to fear. Sentiment at this point is reflecting the lows in the Greed and Fear Index, which has historically been the most favored "contrarian zone" for long-term investors. It's like the classic rule: "Buy in fear, sell in greed". Smart money never enters a market when the crowd is loud, but builds a position when the crowd is silent.

It is worth emphasizing that at this stage, we are not advocating "All in", but rather, we are advocating the establishment of a correct concept of capital and risk awareness. Regardless of the size of your capital, you can start a phased layout. The focus is not on how much to invest, but on whether you are willing to commit to the basic logic of "investment is risk". If you can't even afford to lose your capital, you shouldn't enter the market easily; and when you are willing to bear the worst, you are participating in the beginning of the most promising rally. History has shown us that the real golden buying point of every bull market is the paradoxical pattern of "high prices and low popularity". Instead of waiting for the market to become overheated again, it is better to take advantage of the quiet time to enter the market in a disciplined manner. This is not urging, but a mature mindset to remind: the market really give you the opportunity, often no one will tell you.

Weak trading activity due to increased macro uncertainty and cooler market sentiment

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a distinctly cool and conservative atmosphere, which can be traced back to heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, including uncertainty about interest rate policy, geopolitical conflicts and volatile inflation expectations, all of which have led to investors adopting a more cautious operating strategy.

Looking at the data on the chain, the daily revenue from transaction fees for miners has recently declined to an average of only approximately $558,000 per day, which is significantly lower than the previous bull market levels of over a million dollars per day. Historical experience has shown that fee pressure is a reliable proxy for demand for block space and activity on the chain; when block space is tight, fees can rise rapidly, reflecting users bidding up trades in order to prioritize packing, often accompanied by strong speculative demand.

However, the current marked decline in demand for block space, the extremely low pressure on fees, and the fact that the daily trading volume remains in the low range of 320,000 to 500,000 trades, indicate that both market activity and willingness to invest have weakened. This phenomenon essentially reflects the fact that capital is no longer in a hurry to enter the market, but rather chooses to wait and see what happens and is concerned about the potential impact of the general policy environment on crypto assets.

To summarize, when the macro environment is full of uncertainty, the market generally shifts to a low risk appetite, leading to a simultaneous cooling of demand along the chain. The simultaneous decline in handling fees and trading volume is a concrete reflection of this round of risk aversion, and reminds us that although prices are high, market enthusiasm may not be synchronized, and that operational strategies should focus on risk management and patiently waiting for clearer signals rather than chasing short-term fluctuations.

RSI data is generally weak and noise is depressing prices: a golden window to "get in on the ground floor".

According to the latest Crypto Market RSI heat map, most crypto assets RSI is in the "weak" or even "oversold" zone, with the overall average RSI of the market at around 36.95, indicating that the market is generally in a state of technical depression. It is particularly worth noting that only a few targets, such as BTC and BTCDOM, are in a relatively strong zone, while the vast majority of tokens have corrected sharply, reflecting conservative capital sentiment and weak prices.

The main cause of this phenomenon is not a collapse in chain fundamentals, but rather external macroeconomic uncertainty and policy noise, which causes capital to avoid risky assets and creates a "price suppression period" in the market. These periods are usually not highly volatile, but they are a golden accumulation phase for long-term investors. As the rule of thumb goes: "Lay your groundwork in times of fear and reap the rewards in times of greed".

Therefore, the most strategically important action to take at this stage is to adopt a long-term, systematic DCA (fixed duration accumulation) strategy to build up positions gradually. It is recommended that investors deploy no more than 1% of their total assets daily, and allow at least 3 months for entry in order to cope with possible market volatility in the future. Remember that this is not a time for desperate betting or gambling, but a window of time to test patience and discipline. The only way to buy when the market is "silent" is to get out when the market is "noisy".

Giant Whale profit-taking signals increase, short-term ethereum may face another pullback

Although the price of ethereum (ETH) is still in a high consolidation zone, the chart shows that large groups of addresses with 10k-100k and 100k+ ETH (commonly known as "whales") have recently shown significant realized profits. The orange and green lines in the chart show a significant increase in the realized profit indicator, which means that these heavyweight holders are gradually reducing their positions at the current price level to lock in their gains.

This is probably a typical profit-taking phenomenon in the market, not a result of weakening fundamentals. In fact, the medium- to long-term fundamentals of the ethereum ecosystem are still sound, thanks to the overlapping narratives of Layer 2 expansion, AI applications, and the repledging mechanism. However, the pressure on sentiment cannot be ignored: when large participants choose to sell, it will have a significant impact on the market psychology, and the simultaneous rise in panic and wait-and-see atmosphere may cause capital to turn defensive in the short term, triggering a further pullback.

Therefore, for investors, this should not be seen as a time for a complete retreat, but rather a time for a Divided Capture Advance (DCA) strategy to deal with a shaky market. It is important to avoid taking heavy positions at this stage, and instead adopt a "preparedness and layering" approach to reserve bullets for further bloodshed that may occur. At the same time, basing risk-taking on the psychological expectation of "willingness to go to zero" can maintain rational operation and lay a solid foundation for medium to long term uptrend.

Conclusion:

When markets rebound from the trough of fear to a neutral oscillator phase, it is often a critical period to watch before the next wave of the market turns. From the calm period after the steady inflow of ETFs and the clearing of leverage, to the reallocation of capital in the chain to the main chain and emerging potentials, we have seen that market sentiment and capital are paving the way for the next stage of the market. Although macro pressure has not been removed and short-term volatility is still present, real opportunities are often born during these periods of low-profile bottoming. Investors are advised to keep an eye on structural capital flows and gradually build up their positions through DCA strategy within a risk-controlled range, so as to prepare for the next round of upturn.

If you've learned something from this week's update, or learned more about the market, feel free to follow our Twitter and join our Telegram GroupsWe will be able to share and discuss the next wave of opportunities!

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