利多閃現難破橫盤，市場情緒低溫築底

Welcome back to the Monsterblockhk Weekly Report, and thank you for sticking to the rhythm of observation and analysis in the midst of a volatile market. Although the crypto market continued to receive a number of positive developments this week, including new breakthroughs in the AI chain and the gradual clarification of US regulatory policies, prices and market sentiment remained in a sideways pattern, with no significant rebound yet.

Among them, Virtuals Protocol has just launched ACP, a revolutionary agent service protocol, and initiated a true on-chain governance platform, demonstrating a new style of decentralized governance for the AI ecosystem; while the US has welcomed the Genius Act, a milestone bill for the legalization of stablecoins, which lays a foundation of compliance for US dollar-denominated digital finances, and also brings a policy dividend to the ethereum ecosystem. Although these events have not yet been immediately reflected in prices, they are paving the way for further market developments at the bottom.

This issue of the Weekly Report will bring you a breakdown of the movement of capital on the chain, changes in trading volume and the latest regulatory developments, to help you find the right rhythm of layout in a shaky market.

ETF capital flows oscillate, reflecting the market's wait-and-see approach.

Bitcoin spot ETFs showed an oscillating but overall return pattern this week, reflecting the conservative attitude of capital amidst the mix of macro positive and geopolitical uncertainties. As of July 3, the net inflow reached USD602 million, the highest point of the week. Overall, positive inflows were recorded on 6 out of 7 days, including the peaks on June 24 (US$596 million) and June 25 (US$540 million), with a net outflow only on July 1 (US$200 million). During the same period, total ETF assets rose steadily to $137.6 billion, while the BTC price stabilized around $109,803, suggesting a static allocation and slow build-up rather than a major retreat.

Such a flow structure reflects that the market is in a transitional period of bottoming and wait-and-see, and despite the lack of clear breakout momentum, the trend of gradual replenishment of capital at the bottom is taking shape. Against the backdrop of unresolved geopolitical risks, volatility in the US stock market and positive crypto policy, capital still chooses to enter the market slowly in the form of ETFs as a medium-term layout tool. In line with the fall of TVL on the chain and the concentration of bridge funds in the main chain, ETF funds also show that investors are preferring liquid and stable asset allocation, leaving sufficient firepower and flexibility for the market to kick off later.

Market maintains low volatility and sideways pattern as liquidation size moderately declines

According to Coinglass data, a total of 52,800 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $$70.85M, a significant drop compared to previous weeks, showing a trend of shrinking liquidation. Among them, long positions accounted for $47.07M USD and short positions for $23.78M USD, with long positions still being the main casualties. The largest single burst occurred in the ETH-USDT perpetual contract on the OKX platform, with an amount as high as $1.25M. In terms of currency distribution, ETH and BTC recorded a liquidation scale of about $13.63M and $2.57M respectively, while other highly leveraged meme currencies such as 1000BONK also recorded significant bursts, indicating that despite the low volatility of the market, the high leverage positions still pose a threat to the market. This shows that although market volatility is low, it still poses a threat to highly leveraged positions.

Overall, this round of liquidation was not accompanied by extreme volatility, but rather a neutral phase of sideways price movement and wait-and-see sentiment, indicating capital's preference for defense and gradual deleveraging. Against the backdrop of recent positive developments such as the release of the US pro-encryption policy and the steady return of Bitcoin ETF funds, the market's reaction has been conservative, which is closely related to the depressing effects of geopolitical tensions and macro risks. In the short term, leveraging will help stabilize the technical bottom by reducing pressure on the market, while the low volatility and low liquidation environment will provide a clearer rhythm for medium to long term funds to enter the market, especially during the current round of "no up, no down" consolidation, which is the key stage to build up a patient position.

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Sentiment sideways reflecting the wait-and-see atmosphere, the market is waiting for a new catalyst.

According to CMC data, the Fear and Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market has remained in the 49-50 range for several consecutive days as of the beginning of July, representing a neutral and consolidating overall sentiment in the market. Compared to last month's high of 68 (Greedy), the index has tightened significantly, reflecting that investor sentiment has corrected from overheated to a wait-and-see stance and remains in a "wait for signals" phase amidst the recent sideways price action. Despite the net inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETF for the past few days, the US regulatory policy is becoming more lenient, and other positive news, the sentiment indicator has not yet recovered significantly, highlighting that investors are still hesitant to take a general view on the overall environment.

The market is currently in a period of price and sentiment consolidation, reflecting macro and geopolitical uncertainties that are dampening the rebound in risky assets. Fear and greed indices remain neutral, failing to inspire confidence or trigger large-scale selling, and the market still lacks a clear direction in the short term. In this environment, over-trading will magnify the risk of volatility, while rationally adopting a DCA strategy and selecting fundamentally supported targets will provide flexibility and bargaining chips for the medium-term market. The next round of momentum will start when the sentiment structure completes its turnaround and capital and policies are aligned again.

Capital flows back to the core chain, the market enters a period of observation and consolidation

This week (7D) saw a conservative and focused pattern of capital flows on the chain. According to Artemis data, Ethereum once again led the inflow chart, recording an inflow of about USD 1.93 billion, much higher than other public chains, indicating that its status as a sovereign asset continues to be recognized, while Polygon PoS (about 120 million) and Unichain (about 90 million) attracted significant inflows, while Arbitrum and Base recorded outflows of more than USD 200 million and USD 150 million respectively. Polygon PoS (~120 million) and Unichain (~90 million) also attracted significant inflows, while Arbitrum and Base recorded outflows of more than US$200 million and US$150 million, respectively, and BNB Chain recorded a net outflow of nearly US$1 billion, making it the most drastically withdrawn chain this week, indicating that capital tends to be concentrated in a small number of "stable main chains".

Against the backdrop of positive macro policies (e.g. US regulatory easing) but unabated geopolitical risks, the market has further turned cautious. Despite the lack of overall upward momentum, capital has continued to flow into ecologically deep and risk-resistant main chains such as Ether, reflecting the current "wait-and-see" mentality that dominates capital behavior, with a preference for low volatility and well-structured targets. The fact that capital is taking profits on high beta chains (e.g. Base, OP, Avalanche) is also a reflection of the fact that market sentiment is not yet out of the fear zone. Overall, in the absence of a clear catalyst for upward movement, capital has chosen to retreat to the core ecosystem, and in line with the cyclical theme of "consolidation with low pickups," it is important to pay attention to whether the large-scale main chains are absorbing capital at this point in time as a momentum-building stage for the next wave of the market. Investors can continue to track the capital movement of Ethereum-led master chains to capitalize on potential low-level opportunities during the market consolidation.

Capital Migration Across Chains Deepens: Solana and Arbitrum as the Active End, Ethereum at the Center of Absorption

According to deBridge's cross-chain flow data from last week, on-chain capital migration is further focusing on core main chains and stable infrastructure. ethereum remains the largest recipient of capital, with large asset transfers from chains such as Arbitrum, Solana, Base, and others, including $167 million from Solana→Ethereum alone, demonstrating the continued strengthening of its position as the clearing layer on the chain. Solana→Ethereum alone amounted to $167 million, showing that its position as the clearing layer of the chain continues to be strengthened. In contrast, Solana and Arbitrum play an important role as funding sources, and there are also a large number of interactive transfers in the horizontal migration (e.g., Arbitrum→Solana, Solana→Base, etc.), which shows that their network bandwidth and cross-chain adaptability are in the highly active region, and Base also benefits from the funding from multiple chains.

Looking further at the technical structure of capital flows, Ethereum is the leader in terms of the percentage of funds received and the width of the flow lines, reflecting its role as an asset safety chain in a risk-conscious market environment. Solana's high output - high interaction characteristics also highlight its positioning as an efficient liquidity node, providing a liquidity "springboard" in a multi-chain bridging strategy, while Arbitrum's increased correlation between its outflows and its modular application layer suggests that some developers and users are reallocating their assets to avoid potential volatility, consistent with the recent trend of market turbulence and consolidation. This is consistent with the recent market correction trend.

Overall, this week's cross-chain capital migration behavior is further evidence of the structural repositioning phase of the market's risk adjustment. In the absence of a clear upward price trend, funds are deploying to main chains such as Ethereum via cross-chain bridges (e.g., deBridge) to achieve greater clearing efficiency and security, while the two-way interaction between Solana and Arbitrum reflects that funds are utilizing its high speed and flexible structure to make strategic deployments. In the current environment, this type of inter-chain capital flow pattern reveals a more rational and technology-oriented capital allocation logic, laying the foundation for the next stage of multi-chain ecosystem growth.

TVL Cross-Sector Consolidation Continues as Capital Enters Defensive Allocation Cycle

This week, DeFi's Total Locked Position (TVL) continued to maintain a high consolidation pattern, with market capital tending to wait and reallocate. As of July 5, TVL stood at $108.14B, a slight drop of 0.4% from last week, but still firmly above the bottom of the recent three-month period. Looking at the structure of the main chain, Ethereum is at the top with $58.46B and its TVL share has further expanded to 54%, indicating that capital continues to flow back to stable and secure infrastructure chains. Other major chains such as Solana ($4.7B), Arbitrum ($2.9B) and Base ($1.56B) performed steadily with no obvious signs of capital flight, indicating that the market has not entered the panic stage.

TVL's sideways consolidation is highly correlated with the recent shift in market sentiment towards conservatism. Despite the apparent pro-encryption shift in U.S. policy (e.g., bipartisan push for regulatory framework and steady inflows of ETFs), concerns over geopolitical and global economic uncertainty are still weighing on risk appetite, resulting in limited capital inflows. The concentrated TVL structure of the main chain also reflects capital's preference for low volatility and high certainty as a transitional allocation for risk aversion and waiting for turning points. Overall, TVL consolidation at high level shows the defensive attitude of capital "not leaving, but not entering", which is highly consistent with this week's market theme of "rational layout in sideways consolidation", accumulating potential momentum for future market reversal.

Market Sentiment Continues to Sideways as Capital Rotation is Conservative

Crypto market price performance continued to consolidate this week, with individual tokens posting significant gains, but the overall market lacked consistent upward momentum. According to Crypto Bubbles data, as of July 5, the strongest performers are BONK (+27.3%), PENGU (+15%), and FARTCOIN (+7.2%), all of which are thematic and sentiment-driven coins with a high degree of speculative characteristics. Among the mainstream items, ARB (+5.4%), ETH (+3.1%) and HTX (+4.5%) are relatively resistant to the downtrend, reflecting that capital is inclined to move into targets with strong liquidity and high risk aversion. On the other hand, JTO (-10.9%), SYRUP (-10.5%), SEI (-9.1%) and other strong currencies in the previous period are under pressure to retrace their positions, and the market's preference for high-beta instruments has significantly narrowed.

From the fund behavior and price trends, it is clear that this week's capital is inclined to conservative allocation. Although there is still localized enthusiasm for thematic currencies, it has adopted a profit-taking strategy for fundamentally unstable or unsupported projects. Even though the market received positive news such as the US regulatory policy becoming friendlier, the overall market response was still limited, reflecting that geopolitical risk and market uncertainty remained the main factors suppressing investor sentiment. Both price and liquidity performance indicate that the market is in a "wait-and-see, selective entry" mode, which is consistent with the theme that the overall market is in a consolidation zone. At this point, investment strategies should focus on clear value and high stress resistance, and wait for the market's risk appetite to rebound before expanding allocations.

July Token Unlocking Watch: Unlocking Percentage and Liquidity Pressure in a Consolidating Atmosphere

Against the backdrop of continuous sideways trading and low sentiment this week, a large number of tokens will be unlocked for a number of programs in July, creating potential pressure on some targets. According to the latest data from Token Unlocks, TRUMP will be unlocked in five days with a market capitalization of US$775 million, accounting for 45.35% of its market capitalization, making it the largest unlocking event this month and threatening to have a major impact on prices. Other high unlocking weights include ZRO (23.13%, US$45.76 million unlocked) and STRK (18.6%, US$142 million unlocked). Although these tokens have not shown significant price movement in the short term, the market will need to pay close attention to changes in trading volume and price acceptance at the unlocking time point.

Looking further at some of the strong or mainstream items, we can see that under the pressure of unlocking and market consolidation, specific funds are reacting more conservatively. ARB, for example, is expected to unlock US$30.54 million (1.87% of market capitalization) in 10 days, but it still posted a +1.93% gain this week, indicating that fundamentals and liquidity support are sufficient to cushion short-term supply releases; while SEI is expected to unlock US$14.56 million (1.00% of market capitalization) in nine days, also up +1.83%. These larger market capitalization items with a lower unlocking share and high community activity are more resistant to pressure in the current risk-averse market. Overall, the market has been slow to react to positive news, and with geopolitical and macro uncertainties looming, unlocking events are more likely to amplify sentiment fluctuations. Investors should focus on unlocking ratio and liquidity quality for risk management, and prioritize structurally stable and emotionally resilient assets.

Virtuals Upgraded: ACP Launches New Era of Agency, Community Governance Vision

The latest update to Virtuals Protocol introduces the ACP (Agent Commerce Protocol) and Butler products, further refining the automated commerce interactions between AI agents and the retail user experience. ACP is the first underlying architecture that allows agents to collaborate on transactions without human intervention, and is equipped with stringent sandbox testing and quality auditing mechanisms, demonstrating the team's innovative breakthroughs in technology and ecosystem governance. The ACP is the first to allow agents to collaborate on transactions without intervention, and has a rigorous sandbox testing and quality audit mechanism, demonstrating the team's innovative breakthroughs in technology and ecological governance. At the same time, Butler is similar to an agent's "app store", allowing users to experience a wide range of AI services in one place, highlighting the product's forward-looking layout for the retail market. This series of innovations is not only the first in technology, but also pushes the AI autonomous ecosystem into practical use, laying the foundation for the future decentralized intelligent system.

The most significant aspect of this update is that Virtuals Protocol has officially launched its on-chain governance platform, adopting the holder voting decision-making model and designing a comprehensive proposal scrutiny and voting mechanism to ensure decentralized and transparent governance authority. Users holding at least 0.10% veVIRTUAL can submit a proposal, and the proposal can be passed only if it reaches the threshold of 25% voting rate and majority support. The management of funds and incentives is no longer monopolized by the core team, but decided by the community. In conclusion, the author believes that this democratic governance system echoes the recent model of Creator Bid and other platforms that emphasize on user participation and community autonomy, showing that Virtuals is actively promoting decentralized autonomy in the AI blockchain field, which paves the way for the future sustainable development of the ecosystem, and is worthy of a high degree of optimism from the market.

ECF was established: refused to issue coins, only burned ETH, and focused on price.

The Ether Community Foundation (ECF) was officially established recently, and its founder Cole explicitly refused to support the coin-issuing project, emphasizing the core principles of "stabilizing the ETH price, openness and transparency, and only burning ETH but not issuing coins", with the aim of stabilizing the ETH market value at $1.2 trillion and ensuring the value of the Ether ecosystem increases in real terms.

According to Cole, ETH is no longer an experimental asset, but rather the foundation of a global stable currency and asset uplink, and the stability and growth of the ETH price is a matter of security and global settlement, which contrasts with the current reality of the Ether Fund's (EF) over-idealization and neglect of the price. This reflects a disconnect between the development team and the market's perception of value. This shows that the ethereum ecosystem is undergoing a critical transition from being concept-driven in the past to price- and value-driven in the real world.

This suggests that despite good progress in the technical aspects and community governance of Ether, the price has not risen, reflecting the market's skepticism about its long-term value and economic incentives. As most stablecoins and major applications rely on the Ether chain, this means that DCA (regular fixed investment) in Ether is still a reasonable strategy at this stage, and as the new foundation has proposed a new policy of destroying ETH and not issuing coins, this will help reduce the supply of circulation in the future, which will theoretically provide positive support to the price.

This is in line with the trend of mainstream assets in the crypto market requiring both technological innovation and economic incentives, and shows that price stability and governance reform need to go hand in hand in order to consolidate ETH's position as a global programmable currency, and to drive overall market confidence and value.

Robinhood Enters U.S. Stock Trading on the Chain: Traditional Finance Moves into the New Era of Web3

Robinhood recently announced that it has launched a tokenized asset for EU customers to trade US stocks and ETFs, including stocks of popular companies such as NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft, and has partnered with Arbitrum, a blockchain company, to issue these tokens on a commission-free basis. This not only enables 24/7 trading of stocks, but also plans to build its own Layer 2 blockchain in the future to support 24/7 trading and user self-hosting, showing that traditional financial service platforms are actively integrating blockchain technology to promote the monetization and digital transformation of stock assets. This trend not only responds to international investors' demand for the integration of traditional finance and crypto trading, but also injects more liquidity and innovation into the future financial ecosystem.

This reflects the growing trend of progressive penetration of traditional finance into Web3, which will accelerate the popularity of asset digitization and cross-chain transactions as more large financial institutions join the market in the future. This development will have a positive impact on the crypto market as it not only expands the user base, but also accelerates the development of clear regulations by regulators and reduces market uncertainty. At the same time, the Web3 ecosystem is expected to benefit from more traditional financial and technological support, resulting in a more mature and robust ecosystem that will provide stable and sustainable growth momentum for the crypto market and further propel the industry into the mainstream financial system.

Hyperliquid Chains Transparent Performance Breakthrough to Reshape Decentralized Derivatives Landscape

Hyperliquid's cumulative sustainable contract volume exceeded USD 1.57 trillion in the past twelve months, generating total revenue of over USD 300 million. In May of this year alone, the monthly trading volume reached USD 248 billion, far exceeding the combined volume of all other on-chain sustainable contract platforms, which stood at USD 140 billion. Its trading volume will multiply from US$75 billion to US$150 billion by the end of 2024 as a result of the HYPE Airdrop, demonstrating its high user activity and market attractiveness. According to Presto Research, Hyperliquid has successfully differentiated itself in the decentralized exchange space with low latency, order processing speeds in excess of 100,000 orders/second, and full on-chain orderbook transparency.

This revenue model not only provides a stable cash flow to support the platform's continuous operation, but also strengthens its market competitiveness and ecosystem expansion potential. Hyperliquid has also launched the Ethernet-compatible HyperEVM network this year, facilitating the development of smart contracts and dApps, along with the community buyback program and comprehensive chain auditing, to enhance the depth and resilience of the ecosystem. This model highlights the fact that a stable and transparent revenue stream is the key to the sustainable development of decentralized projects, which helps attract long-term funding and user trust, and is in line with the overall crypto market's trend of pursuing compliance and steady growth, thus establishing a competitive edge and industry position in the future.

Maple Finance Partners with Hyperliquid, De-Fi Takes Collaboration to the Next Level

We at Monsterblockhk have previously explored Maple Finance as a robust decentralized lending protocol that has built a solid foundation in the institutional lending market, both in our Beginner's Seminar and in our Lazy Pack. Recently, Maple Finance officially accepted Hyperliquid's native token, $HYPE, as collateral, giving institutional borrowers the flexibility to utilize their $HYPE positions through overcollateralization, demonstrating a deepening of the partnership. The move not only expands the application landscape for the $HYPE token, but also strengthens Maple's ability to support multiple assets, highlighting the increased interoperability of protocols in the decentralized finance space.

This partnership reflects the continuing evolution of the DeFi ecosystem towards broader and more diversified asset consolidation, promoting both capital efficiency and liquidity. By bringing in $HYPE, which has high transaction volumes and a strong community base, Maple will be able to attract more institutional capital to participate in the lending market and drive its maturity. This trend not only helps to enhance the synergy between different DeFi protocols, but is also in line with the long-term strategy of the crypto market as a whole to seek cross-platform cooperation to enhance sustainability and competitiveness, laying a solid foundation for more cross-protocol cooperation in the future.

Macro News

Trump Bets on Digital Finance to Reshape Dollar Hegemony as Legalization of Stable Currency Takes Critical Step

The US Senate passed the Genius Act at the end of June, establishing for the first time a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. The Act not only authorizes the Department of the Treasury to take the lead in regulating stablecoins, but also opens the door for banks, fintech and retail giants such as Amazon and Walmart to issue their own stablecoins. The passage of the bill not only signals a move toward compliance, but also reinforces the centrality of stablecoins to the U.S. financial system. According to CNBC, the annual transaction volume of stablecoins in the U.S. has reached $28 trillion, far exceeding the combined volume of Mastercard and Visa, demonstrating that stablecoins have become an important tool for modern payments and financial transfers, and the successful passage of the Genius Act has injected a policy dividend into the underlying public chains that host stablecoin ecosystems such as ethereum.

Further analysis suggests that Trump's personal interests are closely tied behind this move. As a businessman president, Trump's 2024 revenues from crypto-related projects (such as $TRUMP) alone are unofficially estimated to be in excess of hundreds of millions of dollars, demonstrating the depth of his bets and interests in digital assets. Despite attempts by the Democrats to include an amendment to prohibit the President from profiting from crypto, the Republicans ultimately blocked it. While the market has been shaken in the short term by political controversy and macro uncertainty, the rise of the Genius Act has created a medium to long term funding opportunity for the stable currency sector and ethereum. From a strategic point of view, the recent price correction is an ideal time to "harvest bull market profits and then enter DCA", while the establishment of stablecoin regulation further enhances the overall cryptocurrency asset's institutional trust and potential for attracting funds.

Musk and Trump in another war of words as market sentiment shapes capital flows

Political theater is once again dominating market sentiment, with former US President Donald Trump's clash with Tesla founder Musk heating up again, making it a focal point for media and investors. On his social media platform X, Musk slammed Trump's tax reform bill as "crazy" and threatened to form a new "Party for America" to fight against traditional forces if the bill was passed. In response, Trump mocked Musk's "deportation" and even hinted at the use of the "Department of Government Efficiency (Doge)" to "gobble up" Musk's businesses, in a tone that was both playful and threatening. Such dramatic disputes may still have an impact at the political level, but for experienced investors, they are becoming routine market 'spoilers'.

In fact, investing in the market, especially in the crypto space, is essentially a game of human nature and emotions, rather than a mathematical model determined solely by charts. While each exchange of words between Musk and Trump may have a short-term impact on the price of the underlying assets, as in the case of Tesla, which fell for two consecutive days during the current round of controversy, it should be viewed more as a psychological battle to manipulate market expectations. When tensions between political leaders and industry giants become the norm, investors should be wary that this kind of "drama" is often just a means of distraction, and that the real effect is to use emotional volatility to achieve political or financial goals. Instead of dancing to the tune of the market, it is better to focus on the market. Changes in the nature of the project, such as the establishment of stable currency regulation, changes in the funding structure and the reality of the chain of activities, are the core elements of long-term profitability. As the rebound from many corrections in recent years has shown, short-term disruptions often create better entry points for longer-term positions.

Weak Employment Data, Shift in Policy Expectations

The US ADP Employment Report for June was a sharp miss, showing a net loss of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, not only the largest since March 2023, but also well below market expectations of 95,000 new jobs. Smaller firms in particular shed 47,000 jobs, highlighting the most significant pressures on capital and operations for these firms. The service sector was the biggest drag, shedding 66,000 jobs, and despite a slight rebound in manufacturing and hospitality, the overall labor market showed rare negative growth. ADP's chief economist said, "Businesses are hesitant to hire new workers, suggesting that uncertainty in the economy remains high. In response to the report, the US Bitcoin price rose to $109,800, indicating that the market has reacted to the expectation of monetary easing (Price In).

This employment data is not only a single indicator, but also one of the core references for the Federal Reserve Board's monetary policy. According to the FedWatch tool from Chase & Co., the odds of a rate cut in September have climbed to 70.5%, and capital markets are quickly adjusting their expectations for the Fed's path. From the perspective of the "circular flow model" of economics, the slowdown in employment and weaker wage growth implies that the momentum of household spending will decline, which will become a funnel for capital leakage, and if the government and the central bank do not make up for it, the overall flow of money will slow down significantly. Therefore, in order to stimulate consumption and corporate investment, interest rate cuts and monetary easing have become the most reasonable policy options. This policy shift not only implies a new wave of liquidity support for equity and bond markets, but also brings medium- to long-term structural benefits for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. In particular, ethereum, as the base chain of most stable currencies, is expected to benefit from the trend of capital flowing back to the chain for asset allocation, and become the leading rallying line in this round of macro-relaxation.

Chained Data Analysis:

Key turnaround in market sentiment: Potential selling pressure on unrealized profit accumulation

Investor sentiment plays a key role in the crypto market, and in the current environment, as prices rebound sharply, potential profit-taking pressures are also on the rise and should be viewed with caution. According to the latest data, total unrealized profits on the Bitcoin network have reached $1.2 trillion, an increase of 40-50% from the market lows of March and April this year. This increase reflects the significant rise in the value of assets in the hands of investors, but it also implies that more people are in a "floating" position, which could quickly turn into actual selling in case of a change in market sentiment or a risky macro-environment. In the event of a change in market sentiment or a risk in the macro environment, this could quickly turn into actual selling pressure, resulting in a price correction.

Historically, the accumulation of unrealized profits to a high level is often a precursor to a market turnaround. At this stage, holders are faced with a psychological game: should they hold on or lock in their profits? If this is paired with negative variables such as further market warming or geopolitical deterioration, profit-taking and selling are likely to become a short-term theme. An over-optimistic "all-in" approach at this point in time would undoubtedly expose investors to a high risk of losing ground. Therefore, it is recommended that investors continue to adopt a DCA strategy at this stage to avoid over-betting. This not only reduces timing risk, but also preserves capital flexibility against potential corrections. The market still has upside potential, but it is important to pace yourself and respect the risks in order to maintain a steady footing in the midst of the alternating bullish and short-term markets.

Not yet peaked, but time is running out: four-year cycle enters high range

The market hasn't quite topped out yet, but a number of chain and cyclical data points to the fact that we may be in the second half of this bull market, entering a high-risk price range. According to the latest data, even though Bitcoin is one step away from its all-time highs, daily realized profits are around $872 million, well below the $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion seen during the last two highs (at $73K and $107K respectively). In other words, most investors have not yet taken large-scale profits, and the market is in a "high surplus, low realization" state, with the potential for a sharp turnaround in the future.

Looking at the four-year cycle, the market has gone through nearly two years since bottoming out at the end of 2022, and historically, the end of the cycle is not far away. This phase is often associated with both high reward and high risk, and if investors fail to lock in their profits in time, they will see their surpluses evaporate as soon as the market enters a pullback. Therefore, although there is still room for the market to expand, we should no longer adopt the mentality of "there will always be another wave", but should gradually shift to risk management and asset adjustment. In conclusion, this is not the time to get out of the market, but it is also not the time to increase capital. Investors should be prudent, depending on price fluctuations and market sentiment, and take profits and adjust their positions in a timely manner, as well as mastering the rhythm of "take what you can get", in order to remain in an unbeatable position at the end of the bull market.

Short-Term Selling Pressure Gradually Releasing: Sell-Side Risk Ratio Suggests Market Balancing Trend

The data shows that the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for short-term holders has recently declined significantly, implying that selling pressure has eased. As short-term investors are primarily interested in realizing quick profits, large-scale selling is often associated with prices near historical highs. According to the chart, the ratio has come down significantly from its highs, reflecting a weakening of selling momentum after a period of profit-taking. This turnaround suggests that risk appetite has begun to tighten following the entry of short-term capital, and that the current price is no longer attractive to holders as a "must sell", thus reducing short-term supply-side pressures on the market.

This phenomenon will help the market return to a rational and technical support structure. Historically, a drop in the Sell-Side Risk Ratio below close to 0.001 would normally be accompanied by a major macro or geopolitical event that would lead to a further decline. Judging from the current structure, without major external shocks, the ratio is unlikely to fall significantly below this key support, and market volatility is expected to remain moderate. For investors, this stage does not mean absolute safety, but it does mean that half of the short-term risks have been released. They can shift their focus from "risk aversion" to "observation" and adjust their position strategies according to changes in macro news, in order to cope with potential structural breakouts or revaluation phases.

Bitcoin Consensus Strengthens, Dominance Becomes Clearer

Recent charts have shown that overall selling pressure on long term holders (LTH) quickly eased, despite brief profit-taking after Bitcoin hit record highs. The data also suggests that although the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for LTH increased slightly in June 2025 in response to the price surge, it is still historically low, suggesting that most sophisticated investors are choosing to hold on to their coins. BTC Dominance has risen in parallel over the period, reflecting a preference for Bitcoin over riskier Altcoins, reinforcing the market consensus that Bitcoin is a "store of value" asset.

From a macro perspective, this series of structural changes reflects the gradual maturation of the investment logic of the crypto market. Bitcoin's positioning as digital gold is gradually being recognized by long-term capital, while other alternative currencies have yet to demonstrate the same level of risk tolerance and consensus support. This also indicates that as the market enters a phase of overvaluation and uncertainty, capital tends to seek stable havens, further driving the capital concentration effect of BTC. At this stage, investors should prioritize core assets and appropriately assess the risk exposure to highly volatile assets in order to respond to capital rotation and confidence shifts during different cycles.

ETH is undervalued, market sentiment does not reflect true value

Despite the mediocre performance of ETH prices and the overall pessimistic market sentiment, the data on the chain suggests that Ether is at a very attractive undervaluation stage. According to the latest statistics, during the month of June 2025, the position of "accumulated addresses" eligible for long-term holding rose from 16,728,100 ETH to 22,746,500 ETH, with a net increase of 6,018,400 ETH in a single month, which is a new record high and an increase of 35.97%. These addresses tend not to be part of centralized exchanges, have very little outflows of funds, and have a stable history of holding positions, which can be regarded as "smart money. These addresses are often not centralized exchanges, rarely experience capital outflows, and have a history of stable positions, making them representative of "smart money" or long-term bullishness, and their movements are highly informative in assessing the intrinsic value of an asset. From the above trends, it is clear that although prices are not yet reflective, capital is already quietly deploying, revealing that the market is in the midst of a good opportunity for value mismatch.

What is more noteworthy is that the current market value of stablecoins is poised for growth, and is expected to increase 15 times in the future, and about 60% of stablecoins are built on the Ether network. This trend not only signals the central role of Ether in the future crypto-financial infrastructure, but also brings structural upward momentum to the ETH price. Once market sentiment recovers and risk appetite rises, ETH is expected to quickly recover and return to its proper valuation. Therefore, for medium- to long-term investors, it is a critical time to consider entering the market in batches and implementing DCA (fixed-duration investment) strategy, so as to lay out the potential value revaluation market in advance.

Conclusion:

Although the crypto market was full of news this week, prices and sentiment moved sideways in tandem, highlighting that investors are still skeptical about the external environment. Judging from the decrease in leverage liquidation, the high consolidation of TVL, the return of capital to the main chain, and the steady build-up of ETFs, the market is entering a typical wait-and-see period where sentiment is not yet hot and opportunities are emerging. Instead of chasing highs, it is better to focus on fundamentally sound targets, and reserve chips and space for the next phase of trend initiation by laying low positions and observing the capital structure. After all, the most silent moment in the market is often the beginning of the brewing of the turnaround.

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