In today's fast-changing cryptocurrency and Web3 ecosystem, the Prediction Market is increasingly becoming the focus of investors and researchers.
In addition to Kalshi, Polymarket, currently the world's largest prediction market platform, not only allows users to bet on future events for information and profit, but also experienced explosive growth in 2025, with trading volume exceeding $40 billion, far exceeding the accuracy of traditional polls and news forecasts.
With the full launch of the U.S. app in 2026, the start of a global expansion program, and the potential for token airdrops, Polymarket not only helps readers understand the macro market dynamics, but also provides a practical framework for action and avoids common misconceptions such as treating it as pure gambling.
This article will introduce you to Polymarket's core values and show you how to sign up and use it to get ahead of the crypto wave, especially as global events such as geopolitical conflicts and sporting events continue to unfold, which is something worth exploring now!
What is Polymarket?
The rise of Polymarket not only reflects the use of blockchain technology in the forecasting space, but also highlights how decentralized markets can complement traditional sources of information.
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based decentralized prediction market platform headquartered in Manhattan, New York and launching in 2020. It allows users to place bets on future events, such as political elections, geopolitical conflicts, sports matches, or entertainment news, by buying and selling "shares" to express their predictions on the outcome of the event.
Each market is usually presented in a binary form, i.e. "Yes" or "No", with the correct share being converted to $1 after the event is resolved and the incorrect share being returned to zero.The design is derived from blockchain technology to ensure transparent and tamper-proof transactions, using the USDC stablecoin as the primary settlement instrument.
Polymarket's history can be traced back to the vision of its founder, Shayne Coplan, who aimed to create a global aggregator of information rather than just a betting site. The platform's early focus was on the crypto community, but from 2024 onwards, following events such as the US election, it rapidly expanded its reach and by 2025 had become a leader in the prediction market, with tens of billions of dollars in trading volume.
This evolution not only demonstrates technological maturity, but also clears up common misconceptions:Polymarket is not gambling, it's a marketplace of information where users can access collective wisdom rather than relying on a single expert's opinion.However, platforms also face regulatory challenges. However, the platform also faces regulatory challenges, such as the need for US users to go through a waiting list for access, reminding readers to check local regulations before use.
What is the logic behind Polymarket's operations?
The core operation of Polymarket relies on the principle of 'collective intelligence', whereby market prices reflect the combined forecasts of participants rather than individual opinions. When a user buys a "Yes" share, the price rises to represent an increase in the probability of an event occurring, and falls to represent a decrease in the probability of an event occurring, similar to the dynamics of supply and demand in a stock market, but based on the outcome of an event.
The underlying trade execution mechanism is much more sophisticated, which directly affects the efficiency of price discovery and market liquidity. When first encountered, many users often simplify it as a pure AMM (Automated Market Maker) model, or mistakenly believe it is completely decentralized without any intermediaries.Hybrid Centralized Limit Order Book (CLOB)This design not only enhances the trading experience, but also allows the platform to maintain tight bid/offer spreads during high-traffic events.
Understanding this mechanism will definitely help you to more accurately read the depth of the market and develop better trading strategies, especially after the platform expansion in 2026, which is expected to attract more professional traders to participate.
Primary Trading Mechanism: Hybrid CLOB
Polymarket's trading engine is primarily based on the Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), an order matching system commonly found on traditional exchanges, but specifically optimized for the characteristics of binary prediction markets.
This is a hybrid-decentralized (hybrid-decentralized) CLOB: Orders are placed, cancelled, and matched primarily in theChain (off-chain)Processing is handled by the platform operator to ensure low latency and fast execution; only final settlement and asset transfer is done non-custodially through smart contracts along the Polygon chain.
This design avoids the common problems associated with purely linked order books. High Gas Fees and DelaysAt the same timePreserves the transparency and security of blockchainThe principle of operation is that users submit EIP-712 signed limit orders. The principle of operation is that users submit EIP-712-signed limit orders, which are collected in a unified order book. When buyer and seller prices are complementary (i.e., bid price for "Yes" shares + ask price for "No" shares = $1), the system automatically matches, which may involve minting (casting new shares) or merging (combining shares back into USDC).
After matching, where one party is a maker (liquidity-providing listener) and the other party or parties are takers (active order takers), any price improvement is attributed to the taker.
This is similar to matching supply and demand on traditional stock exchanges, but Polymarket's innovation is the 'unified order book': as the prices of 'Yes' and 'No' shares always complement each other.The system will automatically treat one party's buy order as the other party's sell order.In addition to the above, the Company is also able to aggregate deeper liquidity, thereby avoiding the widening of spreads that would result from a separate order book.
In practice, readers can view the order book in the platform interface to observe the depth of the wall and spreads. Spreads in high liquidity markets are usually very narrow (less than $0.01), making them ideal for large trades, while low liquidity markets need to watch out for slippage.
Users can place a market order for immediate transaction or a limit order to wait for a better price. The platform also supports advanced types such as FOK (Fill-Or-Kill) and GTC (Good-Til-Cancelled).
Growth trajectory from 2024 to 2025
Polymarket's popularity began with the 2024 US presidential election, when the platform's trading volume exceeded $11 billion, far outpacing its competitors and attracting mainstream media attention. In 2025, the growth has been even more impressive, with Q3 volume reaching $3 billion, five times the previous year's figure, and total volume exceeding $44 billion.
This is due to the platform's simplified blockchain operation, which allows users to transact with a single network fee, lowering the barrier to entry. At the same time, it forms a duopoly with Kalshi, and together they are driving the maturity of the industry. The logic behind this is that high-profile events such as the Venezuela crisis and the Iranian conflict stimulate user engagement, and the platform absorbs these developments to generate accurate predictions. Readers can track similar events as they use the platform to capture opportunities.
Key drivers for 2025 include political and geopolitical events such as the US election continuity effect, Venezuelan leadership change bets, and Bitcoin performance forecasts. These events have not only boosted trading volumes, but have also attracted institutional investment, such as ICE's $2 billion stake in the company, valuing it at $9 billion. Logically, Polymarket offers real-time probabilities that traditional media lacks, helping users to clear up misinformation, such as allegations of manipulation during the election that turned out to be false.
2026 Expansion Plans and Global Presence
Polymarket's potential first full launch in 2026 will be in the US, with the transition from 'crypto fringe' to 'institutional grade derivatives' through the acquisition of QCEX for CFTC compliance. The logic is to expand the user base from the current 1.78 million to the multi-million level, covering the EU, Latin America and Asia.
For example, the Platform has launchedReal Estate Forecast MarketIt provides exposure to alternative investments in response to interest rate fluctuations. Readers can apply it to macro decision making, such as betting on Bitcoin over gold (Odds 59%).
Polymarket also plans to launch its own Ethereum L2 to improve trading efficiency and issue $POLY tokens for a potential Q1 airdrop to reward top traders. This translates into a 'prediction ecosystem' that integrates AI agents and wallets such as MetaMask, generating demand for the tool layer.
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How do I sign up for a Polymarket account?
Step 1: Register for an account
leave for Polymarket Official Website Registration, you can use Google or on-line wallet registration, recommended to use OKX Web3 wallet
OKX Web3 wallet is a multi-chain crypto wallet based on decentralized technology. The operation logic is similar to the familiar Metamask, but it is officially developed by OKX and perfectly integrated with the exchange ecosystem.
Through Monsterblockhk Exclusive Coupon Code "MB002"Register OKX Web3 wallet to enjoy 20% permanent trading fee discount, more economical for newbies!
Step 2: Deposit Funds
If you register with Google.Registrable MEXC、Bybit To buy USDC on a currency exchange or OTC exchange and withdraw it to the Polymarket using the Polygon chain, the transfer method can be found at This article。
If you register with a wallet, you will need to deposit stablecoin assets in USDC for betting purposes. You can deposit and exchange stablecoins on major exchanges (e.g. MEXC, Binance, etc.) and withdraw them to your OKX wallet address.
Polymarket is not limited to a single cryptocurrency class, but supports cross-chain deposits of multiple stable currencies and mainstream assets, including USDC, BNB, ETH, and more. The logic behind this feature is to automatically transfer and exchange assets from Ethereum, BNB, Base, Arbitrum, etc. to USDC.e on Polygon through a built-in bridge system without the need for users to exchange their own tokens during the process, which is very convenient!
How to save money in Polymarket?
If your OKX wallet holds BNB on BSC, simply select "Deposit" at the top right of the Polymarket and match the assets to the chain, and the system will process the rest to make the funds available quickly.
Polymarket Operations Teaching
After logging into the platform, you will first browse through the categories on the main page, such as Political Elections, Sports, Crypto Trends, or Entertainment News, to name a few popular areas. It is advisable to prioritize markets with high trading volumes and high participation, as prices in these markets are usually more stable and reflect broader collective wisdom.
When selecting a market, you can click on the event title to go to the details page and observe the current probability display of "Yes" and "No" shares, as well as the historical price trend. Many novice traders often mistakenly believe that the probabilities displayed are the final outcome, but in fact they are only the current consensus of the market and need to be combined with the latest news or data sources to assist in their judgment. To minimize risk, avoid cold markets with volumes below hundreds of thousands of dollars for the first time to ensure that liquidity is not affected by a single large order.
Once in the selected market, determine the direction of your forecast and choose to buy "yes" shares (believe the event will occur) or "no" shares (believe it will not occur), then enter the amount of USDC you wish to invest and confirm the transaction to complete the purchase.
The process is similar to a stock trade in that the shares are displayed on your position page immediately after purchase. You can return to the market at any time to sell some or all of your shares to lock in a profit, or to add to your position to adjust your position if the price is favorable. The logic of the operation is to be flexible and adjust to new information, such as changes in probability due to the progress of an event.
The area that more people overlook is that they think there is no need for management when holding until settlement. In fact, active monitoring can significantly reduce losses, and it is recommended to set a psychological stop-loss line, e.g., consider selling when the probability of reverse movement exceeds 10%, to avoid emotional decision-making.
The market has a clear end time, and when an event occurs, the platform relies on independent oracles (such as the UMA protocol) to confirm the result, with the correct share automatically converted to a $1 value, and the incorrect share zeroed out, with the profit being credited directly to your account balance.
At this point, you can choose to continue participating in other markets or click on the Withdrawal function to transfer USDC back to your wallet. The entire settlement process is usually completed within a few hours to a few days after the event, depending onLevel of ControversyDepends. Many users are under the mistaken impression that the settlement will be made immediately, but in reality, they need to wait for the official confirmation to ensure fairness. After completing the withdrawal, please remember to pay attention to the local tax regulations and report the relevant income properly to maintain long-term compliance.
Can't miss the advanced gameplay!
With the frequency of global events in 2026, following the news is no longer enough to stay ahead of the curve. You must capitalize on community and advanced resources to turn predictions into sustained high returns, and by missing out on this wave of community alpha, you may never catch up with the smart money that's already reaping the benefits of their insider wallets!
If you're looking to move up from probability games to on-chain insider analysis, we recommend following up with another one of our super popular practical guides!The latest Polymarket tutorials｜How to find out the insiders and achieve a high win rate! How to do Chain Analysis?
This article provides real-world examples of how to target high-volume, low-probability betting accounts, track wallet interaction patterns, and verify insider behavior through tools like Arkham and Nansen, allowing you to build a systematic strategy for following your smart money!
Our Telegram Community Prediction Market is a special forum where members share daily updates on market opportunities and events to help you avoid blind betting and quickly adjust your strategy, join us now!
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Disclaimer
The content of this article is for reference only, investors should exercise independent judgment, invest prudently and at their own risk, this article does not provide or attempt to persuade the audience to do trading or investment basis, the content is for sharing purposes only, and should not be regarded as investment advice.It does not represent the views and position of Monsterblockhk.All information and opinions are current as of the date of the judgment. In addition, if a judgment is rendered on aIn this siteAny content related to virtual asset trading platforms that have not yet obtained a license to operate virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, including but not limited to text introductions, pictures, offers, events, etc., are only available to users outside the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
According to the Hong Kong Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing (Amendment) Ordinance 2022, after June 1, 2023, all centralized virtual asset trading platforms operating in Hong Kong or actively promoting their services to Hong Kong investors will be licensed and regulated by the SFC, and any related unlicensed activities will be a criminal offence. For more information and details of the legislation, users may refer to the SFC website.