BTC 創新高，市場回暖，但慎防高位修正

Welcome back to Monsterblockhk Weekly Report. This week, Bitcoin broke through the all-time high again, market sentiment is warming up, and the cry of "Crypto is back" has resurfaced, which has led to the rapid return of capital to the main chain and mainstream assets, and structural rotation is gradually taking shape. However, historical experience has reminded us time and time again that after BTC breaks out of its historical highs, if there is no sustained bullishness, the risk of a correction will often creep up on us. Instead of blindly FOMO in the hotspot, it is better to take advantage of the situation to adjust the allocation, and steadily put your money in your pocket.

In this issue, we will take a look at the current market style and the potential rhythm of the market from key indicators such as ETF inflows, leveraged liquidation, capital rotation and cross-chain restructuring. It is worth noting that some overheated signals have surfaced in the market, such as the liquidity alert triggered by Pump.fun's highly valued token issuance, which once again suggests that the risk of a short-term pullback should not be ignored.

Explosive ETF Inflows, Market Sentiment Heats Up but Timely Allocation Adjustments Are Appropriate

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded strong capital return this week, indicating a significant rise in market sentiment and a clear long structure as the price breaks to new record highs. According to SoSoValue, as of July 11, the one-day net inflow reached a record high of US$1.03 billion, which together with US$1.1 billion on July 10 and US$172 million on July 9, constituted a large inflow wave for three consecutive days this week. Overall ETF assets also rose to US$150.6 billion this week, while the price of Bitcoin stood at US$118,108, a significant rebound from last week.

This wave of inflows shows that the market is expecting Bitcoin to return to strength, but past experience also reminds investors that a breakout from historical highs is often at risk of a short-term correction if there is no material upside, such as policy, funding or fundamental support. Observing the current market sentiment, although the overall market sentiment is on the positive side, there is no significant new story or funding driver, coupled with the fact that the explosive influx of ETF funds may have already overdrawn the momentum in a phased manner, so it is more appropriate to view the uptrend as an opportunity to reallocate assets at this stage. In the face of recovering market sentiment, rational operation should be prioritized by steady profit-taking, avoiding the risk of potential volatility after chasing high prices, and leaving sufficient room and flexibility for subsequent pullback or rotation.

Liquidation size climbs sharply as long leverage focuses out of the market

In the past 24 hours, the market showed obvious deleveraging phenomenon, the liquidation amount reached $197.40M, which is the high point of the recent week, of which the proportion of long orders reached $130.71M, much higher than the short orders of $66.69M. According to the statistics, a total of 100,991 traders have been bursting their positions, and the largest liquidation of a single Bybit's BTCUSDT contract, the amount reached $2.00M. The largest liquidation came from Bybit's BTCUSDT contract, with an amount as high as $2.00M. The main liquidation forces were concentrated in BTC ($17.62M), ETH ($30.59M), and XRP ($17.45M), which shows that the long leverage of mainstream currencies is too concentrated. In addition, XLM ($10.01M) and DOGE ($9.86M) also recorded high liquidation values, indicating that the market is in a strong pursuit of high prices.

This wave of large-scale liquidation reflects a technical correction in the market after the breakout to new record highs, with overheated sentiment leading to excessive leverage and a lack of sustained bullish support. Historical experience has shown that short-term pullbacks often follow ATH breakouts without new capital or narrative support. Although the overall crypto market sentiment has warmed up and the "Crypto is back" sound has resurfaced, the liquidation structure reminds investors that it is more appropriate to take profits and adjust the leverage and position structure rather than chasing the high side of the market. Avoiding being part of the liquidation data is the core principle of the current allocation strategy.

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Greed continues to rise, the market may enter an overheated zone in the short term.

According to CMC data, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached 69 as of the date of the chart, rising continuously and moving quickly into the greedy zone from 51 (neutral) last week. It has remained near 61 for the past month, reflecting the recent significant increase in sentiment. As can be seen from the chart, the index has been climbing steadily since the beginning of July and has formed a synchronized higher structure with the price of Bitcoin. Although the yearly extremes (high of 88, low of 15) have not yet been reached, the current value is at a relatively high historical level, suggesting that risk appetite has strengthened and there is a clear increase in the willingness to enter the market.

This change in sentiment echoes the recent strong trend of Bitcoin's breakout to all-time highs, but it also reflects the growing sentiment of chasing highs and FOMO, and the need to be wary of the risk of a correction due to short-term overheating. Historical experience has shown that when market sentiment approaches extreme greed and fundamentals lack a strong new catalyst, the chances of a pullback increase. While the current market cycle has indeed brought a sense of "return" in terms of capital and sentiment, as the indexes approach their highs, investors should focus on profit realization and capital reallocation rather than blindly adding to their positions at high levels. Mastering the rhythm and harvesting with the trend is a more rational strategy now.

Main Chain continues to attract capital, Beta Asset profit-taking evident

This week's (7D) chain fund flows show a pattern of stable main chains continuing to absorb money. According to Artemis data, Ethereum again led the way with a net inflow of around $710 million, significantly higher than the second-place BNB Chain (around $220 million). In addition, Starknet and Polygon PoS also recorded small net inflows of around $60 million and $30 million respectively. On the other hand, Base and Arbitrum recorded sharp net outflows of US$450 million and US$350 million respectively, indicating that the market is withdrawing capital from the Beta public chain and returning to the main chain, which has a mature ecological structure and deep liquidity. The overall inflow shows that Ethereum has seen around US$1.1bn of incoming funds, but its outflow is also as high as US$400m, reflecting its active and centralized position as a bridging fund.

Against the backdrop of the lack of further positive catalysts after Bitcoin's record high, the market has gradually shifted from emotional price chasing to rational deployment, and the direction of capital flow reveals that investors are adjusting their strategy of "harvesting first, then allocating", with core chains such as Ethereum and the BNB Chain serving as a short-term safe haven, echoing the historical pattern that BTC is prone to technical pullbacks after breaking through the ATH. The withdrawal of capital from high volatility chains such as Base, Arbitrum, OP Mainnet, etc. also highlights that the market is entering a rhythm of adjustment and reallocation. Although there is no clear negative trend at this stage, there is a lack of new momentum, so investors should focus on the movement of capital in the main chain, seize the reallocation opportunity after this wave of profit-taking, and carefully plan for the next round of market layout.

Cross-chain restructuring of capital deepens: main chain leads, medium-sized chain takes over, and the rotation effect is quietly taking shape.

According to deBridge's cross-chain transfer data for the last week, Ethereum continues to be the center of capital inflows, receiving large amounts of money from multiple chains. Most notably, Solana's transfer path to Ethereum has reached the hundreds of millions of dollars level, while Arbitrum, Base, BNB Chain and others have also seen large amounts of money migrate to Ether. solana is also a major source of funds, with its outflow lines clearly radiating to medium-sized chains such as Arbitrum, Base, Polygon, etc., reflecting its role as a central node in the distribution of funds. Although Base and Arbitrum are net outflows, they also receive a lot of transfers from BNB, Optimism, etc., highlighting their role as relay and liquidity receiving chains. The hierarchy of capital flows from large chains to medium-sized chains is initially shown in the diagram.

This cross-chain reconfiguration highlights that the market is in the early stages of rotation. As Bitcoin breaks out to record highs but lacks a catalyst for a sustained uptrend, capital tends to flow back to the main chain for hedging and profit-taking, and Ethereum continues to strengthen its position as a clearing layer, absorbing mainstream assets before partially releasing them to mid-sized chains such as Base, Arbitrum, Mantle, and other application-elastic blocks, while the bi-directional nature of Solana's flows supports its efficiency and resilience as a bridging node between chains. Solana's bi-directional nature also demonstrates its efficiency and flexibility as a bridging node between chains, further facilitating the rotation of capital at the micro level. While the market remains skeptical about the feasibility of an incremental capital rotation in the "main-mid-small" chain, the framework has already been quietly activated by cross-chain data. This is a good time to adjust and reallocate capital, and investors can look at the structure of capital flows to find potential assets and points of convergence along the chain in the next phase.

TVL bounces back as DeFi market resets asset allocation rhythm

DeFi's Total Locked Position (TVL) increased significantly this week, showing signs of capital flow and redeployment. According to DefiLlama, as of July 12, the total TVL was $126.7B, a significant increase of +4.91% in 7 days, while the 24-hour DEX volume was $19.17B and the Perps contract volume was $16.75B, both of which are recent highs, suggesting that capital is re-entering the market and driving the revival of chain activity in the near term. These are all recent highs, suggesting that capital has re-entered the market in the near term, driving the chain back to a higher level of activity. The stablecoin market capitalization also reached $257B, which is the core of liquidity provision for the TVL base, further supporting the current stability of the DeFi structure.

The uptrend in TVL is related to the rebound in market sentiment after Bitcoin's record high, but capital flows are still skewed towards cautious and strategic allocations, even though BTC has broken record highs again. Even though BTC has broken record highs again, the overall news has not been a strong push factor, but has prompted some capital to reallocate at higher levels rather than blindly FOMO. The rise in TVL ostensibly represents a rise in risk appetite, but in fact reveals that investors are taking advantage of the rebound in the market to take precautionary measures and reorganize, shifting capital to the protocol layer, main chain infrastructure and clearing segment to wait for the next round of drivers. The current TVL structure suggests that the market is not caught up in a unilateral rally, but rather is structurally redeploying at higher levels, echoing this week's theme of "Adjust while you're ahead, allocate while you're ahead".

Mainstream returns, but be wary of the risk of a pullback from the highs

The cryptocurrency market continued its strong performance this week, with the overall capital style favoring the return of the mainstream and the rotation of themes, and BTC broke through the record high again, which led to the restoration of market confidence. According to Crypto Bubbles, as of July 13th, the top performers are M (+1,291%), XLM (+62.4%), IP (+64%), and PENGU (+45.2%), all of which are high beta targets with impressive gains. Mainstream currencies such as ETH (+17.3%), ARB (+26.3%), SOL (+10.1%), ADA (+26.6%), and DOGE (+24.5%) also recorded steady gains, reflecting that the overall capital structure of the market has gradually shifted from thematic speculation back to market-capitalization allocation, and the market sentiment is optimistic.

However, it is worth noting that although BTC has hit a new record high, this round of uptrend lacks a new narrative and substantial positive support, so the market may not be able to continue to push up strongly, and investors should be more concerned about the risk of pullback from the high level. Historical experience shows that after BTC breaks out of record highs, if there is no major policy or industry favor, short-term adjustments are often accompanied by profit-selling pressure and capital reallocation. Therefore, the current strategy should be to focus on high level reduction and asset reorganization, and make timely adjustments to targets that have accumulated considerable gains over the past two weeks, and shift to core assets with stronger defenses and clearer values, so as to reserve sufficient firepower for the next round of the market, rather than blindly chasing the highs.

Pump.fun's valuation causes market alarm, short-term pressure may become a disaster area.

Pump.fun recently completed a $500 million ICO in just 12 minutes, but the actual release of the data has been questionable, causing the market to be on high alert. According to the official announcement, the original plan was to sell 15% of supply (i.e. 150 billion PUMPs), but only 12.5% was finally released without any explanation, only claiming that the allocation of private placement shares had been completed. Based on the current price, the market capitalization on the first day of listing will be close to US$2.3 billion, a valuation much higher than its actual utility and market demand. The PUMP token itself has no shareholding, governance or revenue sharing functions, nor does it provide any specific application scenarios, and is only used as a symbolic token for the platform, which is extremely weak in terms of actual support. Moreover, all ICO holdings will be unlocked on the first day of the listing, which signals that huge selling pressure is unavoidable.

From the perspective of market structure, Pump.fun's mode of operation is highly inclined to short-term liquidity harvesting, and it has imposed restrictions on the United States, the United Kingdom and other regions with strict regulations, and has turned to attract users in Asia, especially China, to avoid potential legal risks and regulatory challenges. This design, combined with the recent market downturn, undoubtedly reinforces its high-risk and high volatility characteristics. Compared to similar projects with similar market capitalization, such as Ethena and Blur, which have revenue models or governance applications, Pump.fun's valuation is only supported by the residual popularity of past meme stories, which is obviously difficult to maintain in the long run. In conclusion, PUMP is more like a short-cycle chips game rather than a long-term investment target. After listing, it may quickly face a price correction and chips washout, which will become an opportunity for short traders to anticipate, and for retail traders, it will most likely prove the market habit of "last cut" once again.

GMX security incident reversed, short-term confidence restored but hidden worries not yet eliminated.

In a dramatic reversal of the $42 million hack of GMX, the hackers chose to act as "white hats" and have been returning $40.5 million in assets since July 11th, accounting for more than $96% of the total amount stolen, and have been promised by GMX officials to keep $4.5 million as a white hat bounty. The return was clearly recorded on the Arbitrum chain, covering assets such as FRAX, DAI, wBTC, etc. Some of these assets were converted to ETH in the process, earning an additional $3 million in the process. After the news was announced, GMX tokens rebounded by 16% in a single day, with the market capitalization recovering to $134 million, reflecting that the market has regained some confidence in the protocol's ability to handle the situation quickly.

However, the nature of the incident still reveals the seriousness of the security vulnerabilities under the GMX V1 architecture. Hackers manipulated the contract price through re-entry attacks, coupled with flash loans and internal logic flaws, to manipulate the GLP price in a short period of time to make profits, highlighting the potential threat posed by cross-contractual risk and authorization negligence. Although the white hat returned the funds to avoid a bigger disaster, this kind of incident not only erodes users' trust, but also proves once again that "trust ≠ security" in the DeFi space, especially when the platform's size and reputation cannot fully offset the technical flaws. although GMX quickly patched the vulnerability and confirmed that V2 is not at risk, it will take time for the market to recover, and investors should be more cautious in assessing the risk and avoid ignoring the potential risk structure due to the short-term rebound. We at Monsterblockhk would like to remind our readers once again not to click on any links from unknown sources and refuse any unverified authorization, or else they may become the next victim.

Cardano Foundation Assets Grow Significantly, Reeve System to Open New Chapter of Financial Transparency

The Cardano Foundation's latest financial results show a significant increase of 37.8% in total assets from US$478 million at the end of 2023 to US$659 million in 2024, with ADA assets accounting for 76.7%, or approximately 599 million units, followed by 15% of Bitcoin and 8.3% of cash and equivalents. On the revenue side, the pledge proceeds in 2024 amount to 17.1 million ADA at an annualized rate of return of 2.7%, demonstrating that its operations are largely dependent on the proceeds from the agreement pledges. Such growth not only reflects the recovery in market conditions, but also demonstrates the sustainability of Cardano Ecosystems' internal asset accumulation.

Despite the attractiveness of the asset expansion, what's really worth noting is the Foundation's July 8 launch of Reeve, a financial reporting system that integrates the tamper-proof nature of the blockchain with the demands of enterprise-level accounting, uploading for the first time the Foundation's complete financial reports to an auditable, open-source, and transparent mechanism. This not only reduces suspicion about the source and use of the foundation's assets, but also marks the next stage of Web3's open governance. As the crypto market is still plagued with controversies over "black book" and centralized team funding operations, the launch of Reeve may rebuild Cardano's capital of trust, especially when on-chain financial management is becoming a mainstream trend. For institutional users looking for a compliant and transparent application landscape, Cardano may already be at the forefront and is one of the potential projects that investors should keep a close eye on.

MicroStrategy May Sell Bitcoin? Potential Financial Pressure Becomes Structural Risk for Bulls

Strategy, which currently holds nearly 600,000 Bitcoins and has a total market capitalization of approximately $64.4 billion, is facing a multibillion-dollar cash tax burden as a result of two upcoming U.S. regulations, ASU 2023-08 and CAMT, which will bring its large unrealized gains into the tax base for the first time, according to CryptoQuant, which acknowledged in its SEC filing that it may have to liquidate some of its Bitcoin assets or issue new debt and equity to raise money to pay the tax. CryptoQuant noted that in its filing with the SEC, the company acknowledged that it may need to liquidate some of its Bitcoin assets in the future, or issue new debt and equity to raise funds to pay the tax. Although founder Michael Saylor has long maintained a "never sell coins" stance, MicroStrategy is likely to face real-world cash flow constraints under the new tax regime.

If micro-strategies are forced to sell Bitcoin, the balance between supply and demand in the market may be impacted, which is a structural concern that could override the current bull market. The deeper risk is that more and more companies will follow their "hoarding" model, and if they are also forced to liquidate their assets due to tax and accounting rules, there could be a chain reaction in the market. Technically, this potentially massive selling pressure will depress the upside momentum of the BTC price, and from a macro perspective, it highlights the fact that the current bull market may be based on liquidity and tax-avoidance expectations, which are far more fragile than one would expect. For crypto investors, this kind of tax-oriented selling pressure is not only a catalyst for short-term price movements, but also the tip of the iceberg reflecting the risks of the asset system, which is worth waiting for.

Ripple Expands Physical Applications, RLUSD and BNY Collaborate to Strengthen SWIFT Narratives

Ripple's corporate-grade US dollar stablecoin, RLUSD, has already exceeded US$500 million in circulation in just seven months since its launch at the end of 2024, making it one of the top 20 stablecoins in the world, and Ripple has announced that its US dollar cash and treasury bill reserves will be held by traditional financial giant BNY Mellon, a move that not only strengthens the transparency of reserves and the foundation of trust, but also marks RLUSD's official recognition by mainstream financial institutions in the US. This not only strengthens the foundation of transparency and trust in the reserves, but also signifies that RLUSD has been officially recognized by mainstream financial institutions in the United States. At the same time, Ripple has also applied to the OCC for a National Trust Bank license, aiming to make RLUSD one of the few stablecoins subject to both federal and state regulation, underscoring its compliance orientation and institutional ambitions.

From a strategic perspective, as Ripple continues to deepen its cross-border payments landscape and builds a next-generation financial infrastructure to rival SWIFT, the partnership between BNY, Circle's (the issuer of USDC) long-term reserve custodian bank, and Ripple underscores the latter's rapid catch-up with the traditional stablecoin leaders. If RLUSD can continue to build on its reserve management and compliance strengths, it will play an increasingly critical role in global cross-border settlements and the consolidation of financial institutions, and may become one of the pillars of a robust XRP ecosystem. Under the trend of macro geography and financial system fragmentation, Ripple's physical financial penetration and application implementation are strengthening its story as a Web3 financial bridge, which deserves the attention of medium- to long-term investors.

Macro News

Musk's New Political Game: The Dark Side of Crypto Markets Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg

In an attempt to break the two-party system in the United States and gain access to important seats in Congress, Donald Trump recently announced the formation of the New Deal Party. While this may appear to be an attempt at political pluralism, it has been confronted with stringent ballot thresholds and legal restrictions in various states, making it difficult for a third party to truly compete, and more analysts have pointed out that its role may be that of a "spoiler", aiming to influence the election of the two major parties. The death threats against Musk after layoffs and cutbacks in spending seem to have hidden undercurrents far beyond the surface of the political competition, and these unseen forces seem to warn of the complexity and darkness of the entire system of capital and politics.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. The manipulation and power plays inherent in cryptocurrency and capitalism are much deeper and more brutal than we can see or understand. As the iceberg theory reveals, there are huge and hidden forces under the surface of the water that dominate market trends and capital flows. Although the crypto market is known for its decentralization and transparency, it is also subject to manipulation and interference by traditional financial and political forces. Such manipulation not only affects price fluctuations, but also the health and fairness of the overall ecosystem.

Therefore, in the face of such an environment full of uncertainty and risk of manipulation, investors must be more profoundly alert and analytical, and must not be fooled by appearances. Only by recognizing the dark truth underneath the iceberg and managing risk carefully can we stay in the ever-changing crypto market. This is another reminder that the intersection of capital and politics is far more complex than imagined, and that we need to be highly vigilant and perceptive about the future.

Canada-US tariff war continues to heat up, but the currency is bucking the trend.

The cryptocurrency market has been unusually quiet, despite the US threatening to impose 35% high tariffs on Canadian goods again on Thursday night, and suggesting that other trading partners will face a similar fate. The price of Bitcoin was not only unaffected, but even broke through record highs, trading at $109,803 (SoSoValue) on July 3rd, with a strong net inflow into spot ETFs of US$$602 million on the same day. Normally, this kind of information, which poses a major threat to the global supply chain and trade stability, should have triggered panic in the market. However, the currency price did not react negatively at all, and instead attracted more capital to enter the market, which is a serious deviation from the fundamental signals.

This phenomenon strongly suggests that the price of Bitcoin is being manipulated by large organizations or giant whales. If the same news were to come out during a downturn, it would be highly likely that the market would magnify it as a risky event and intensify selling sentiment, but this week the opposite happened. This selective reaction highlights a structural problem in the market: price movements are no longer purely a reflection of news and fundamentals, but are more dependent on the tempo of the capital controllers. For the average investor, this is a reminder to prioritize the flow of capital and sentiment along the chain when making medium to long term deployments, and to take advantage of unexpected policy risks through robust strategies such as DCA, rather than relying solely on traditional market logic to make judgments.

Chained Data Analysis:

Weakening Dollar Index Unleashes Potential for Risky Assets: New Uptrend Cycle Could Be Coming in Three Months

A key signal was recently seen in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is a measure of the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies. When the DXY is in an uptrend, it is usually a sign of heightened risk aversion in the market, with capital tending to flow into low-risk assets such as the US Dollar. On the other hand, when the DXY weakens and falls below the annual line, it is often seen as a signal that risky assets (such as stocks and cryptocurrencies) are potentially positive. As you can see from the chart, the DXY has now fallen below its 365-day average and entered a historically favorable range for Bitcoin, reflecting a decline in the safe-haven status of the US dollar and the potential for investors to begin adjusting their capital allocation strategies.

However, despite the significant weakness in the US Dollar Index, the market's response to risky assets has yet to fully unfold, suggesting a time lag. Historically, when the DXY is in a weak zone, capital flows into the crypto market are usually gradual but not immediately reflected in prices, especially in light of macroeconomic noise and interest rate policy uncertainty. It is expected that the next one to three months could see a new up cycle for Bitcoin and other assets if the US dollar continues to weaken and market confidence returns. Therefore, while this is not the time to enter the market in full force, it is also a reasonable starting point for a Divided Choice Attachment (DCA) - not to bet heavily, but to continue to accumulate positions to the extent that capital allows, and wait for the market to rotate and risk appetite to rebound.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Hit New High: Selling Pressure Weakens and Supply-Demand Trends Change

In a key signal for the Bitcoin market, Long-Term Holders (LTH) holdings have reached a record high of 14.7 million BTC. As seen in the chart, LTH holdings have been on a steady uptrend since the end of 2024, suggesting that market participants are generally choosing to hold on to their shares rather than sell them off even though the price has passed the 100,000-dollar mark. This trend is a direct reflection of the fact that selling pressure is now diminishing, and with it, the amount of bitcoin available in the market.

From an economic supply and demand point of view, when the circulating supply decreases and the demand is maintained or strengthened, the price is usually supported or even further pushed up. LTH's willingness to hold on to its coins means that there are fewer chips available for sale in the market, which creates a "scarcity effect" and helps establish a bottom in the price and attracts a new wave of capital into the market. Even though the cottage currency has yet to take off, this does not mean the bull market is over, but rather that overall capital is still concentrated in the main Bitcoin sector and has not yet fully diversified into higher risk targets. As long as supply tightens and demand stabilizes, prices will continue to benefit from this healthy supply/demand structure.

Fear is opportunity: oversold areas dominate the market, it's time to enter in batches.

According to the latest weekly RSI heat map, most of the cryptocurrencies are currently in the "weak" or even "oversold" zone, with the overall average RSI at 41.15, far below the 60 to 70 level when the market was in full swing. As shown in the chart, a large number of small and medium-sized currencies, including TRUMP, A16Z, GPS, ACT, etc., have fallen into the RSI area below 30, indicating that investors' confidence is weak and the market is still in a "fear" mood. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has also fallen back to the fear zone, echoing the RSI signals and providing a good opportunity for contrarian investors to buy in batches.

Analytically, this is in line with the classic investment principle of "buy in fear, sell in greed". Experience has shown time and time again that when most assets are oversold and market sentiment is weak, it is a prime time for long term holders to deploy their cost zones. Although there is no catalyst at this stage, once Bitcoin breaks through the top (as seen in recent days when it rose to new all-time highs), capital will quickly flow back into the overall market, triggering a chain of rallies. Therefore, at this stage, we should not be afraid of shocks, but rather focus on asset fundamentals and capital batching strategy, and wait patiently for the next windfall.

Updated:After Bitcoin broke to new highs, most currencies also rose 10 percent. Remember: Buy in fear, sell in greed. Now is the time to start Taking Profit!

Silent wallet suddenly shifted, the main buyer or is sucking chips

Recently, data on the chain showed that two Bitcoin addresses that hadn't moved in six years suddenly became active, transferring a total of about 8,000 BTC, causing a temporary panic in the market. According to the charts, the funds flowed out of wallets that were 5 to 7 years old, and the corresponding prices were in a high consolidation area, causing the market to worry for a while that early individual users were beginning to cash in their profits, and even rumors of the "return of the OG whales" appeared. Historically, similar "sell-offs by long-term holders" have often moved market sentiment and caused short-term price volatility.

However, back-link analysis suggests that these two transactions are highly likely to be internal transfers between Coinbase Prime custodian addresses, rather than retail outbound or exchange deposits. Considering the lack of OTC (over-the-counter) liquidity in recent months, it is possible that an organization or a high net worth buyer directly purchased 8,000 BTC and settled the transaction through internal escrow. As the event is not related to ETFs, there is limited medium-term uncertainty in the market, and short-term noise is likely to be quickly overshadowed by mainstream news and capital momentum. For investors, instead of being disturbed by rumors, it is better to focus on the real capital behavior behind the market trend in order to grasp the real turnaround.

Bitcoin Market Share Climbing: Is Capital Rotation About to Begin?

BTC Dominance has recently stabilized above 60% and continues to rise as the price breaks out to new all-time highs, suggesting that capital is focusing on assets with a margin of safety such as Bitcoin. As seen in the chart, BTC's market share relative to other crypto assets has not only stabilized, but is accelerating. The market is in a period of shrinking risk appetite, with macro uncertainties (e.g., high interest rates, geopolitics, risk of recession) driving safe-haven capital to Bitcoin, which has the largest market capitalization and the most liquidity.

However, the biggest difference from previous bull markets is that the capital rotation mechanism is undergoing a qualitative change. In this cycle, market capital is not equally distributed across all torrents due to a structural shift in the supply/demand imbalance. Compared to the hundreds of investable tokens in the previous cycle, the number of active tokens in the market has grown to tens of thousands, resulting in a significant expansion of supply. Unfortunately, the demand side has not grown at the same pace, and liquidity has not been able to support a full-scale capital rotation. As a result, the market is no longer in a "sector-wide flight to safety", but rather focuses on a few specific tracks (e.g., RWAs, AIs, and Layers2). Investors should avoid blindly chasing miscellaneous currencies, and instead use the DCA approach to target structurally favorable sectors, preferring to focus on the best rather than the worst.

Conclusion

This week's market structure has clearly shifted towards mainstream currencies and main chain assets, with both BTC and ETH posting impressive gains, which in turn led to a steady rise in Mega Alts such as SOL, XRP, DOGE and so on. However, as history has shown, BTC's highs often mean that sentiment and capital have reached a peak, and without a new catalyst, the chances of a correction increase.

Crypto is indeed "back", but now is the best time to make rational adjustments if we want to go further in the next round.

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