ETF 轉冷、情緒翻空，佈局時機又來了

This week, the crypto market continued its pullback rhythm. Bitcoin spot ETFs once again saw significant net outflows, leveraged longs were hit hard, fear and greed indices fell back to neutral territory, and both sentiment and prices declined as risk appetite in the market clearly weakened. We have warned many times in the past to consider taking some profits from the highs, and now if you have already pocketed some of your profits, you should be in a very comfortable position to calmly embrace this round of re-positioning at the lows. Capital flow on the chain is shifting from the High Beta to the backbone of the public chain, TVL is slipping but there is no panic capital withdrawal, reflecting that the overall market is still in a healthy stage of adjustment. This is a critical point to redirect profits into strategic DCA deployments.

ETFs show net outflow again, long term opportunities emerge amid short term shocks

According to SoSoValue, as of June 5, the Bitcoin spot ETF once again recorded a one-day net outflow of US$$2.78 billion, an important signal of this week's weakening fund sentiment. Although positive inflows were recorded briefly from June 3 to 4 (the largest single-day inflow was nearly USD$4 billion), the overall weekly sentiment was "three reds and two greens", with capital sentiment leaning towards conservatism. Meanwhile, total assets continued to slide from the highs to US$122.98 billion, reflecting the rising risk aversion in the market. Bitcoin price also retreated from its high at US$$101,914.8.

The in/out movement of funds confirms the effectiveness of the "take profits on the highs" strategy we have been suggesting over the past week, as the apparent contraction of ETF funds, which are institutional weathervanes, suggests that the market is becoming more reticent about short-term uptrends. However, it also creates a great opportunity for earlier gainers to re-position themselves - DCA has a cost advantage when both sentiment and prices fall. From a capital perspective, there is no sign of a full-scale withdrawal of long-term capital, just a normal correction.

Long positions lead the liquidation wave, the market completes the short-term leverage clearance

According to Coinglass data, as of Saturday, a total of 73,103 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $$166 million, of which long positions accounted for as much as $$101.5 million, far exceeding the short position of $14.55 million, reflecting that the long leveraged positions suffered a severe blow in this week's pullback. Among the mainstream currencies, BTC and ETH accounted for $42.01 million and $37 million respectively, accounting for the main source of liquidation in the market. The single largest outage occurred in the BTC-USDT contract on the Bybit platform, amounting to $$1.6 million.

This wave of liquidation clearly reveals the leveraged risk consequences of the strong mid-week pullback. After several weeks of gains, long positions accumulated quickly, with short-term sentiment-driven bullishness in particular dominating the liquidation. Although the liquidation behavior is destructive, it has not triggered a systemic panic in terms of capital and trading data. On the contrary, a healthy deleveraging has been completed structurally, which is conducive to the market's bottoming out and rebound. For those who have already taken profits in the previous period and kept sufficient cash, now is the golden window to re-enter the market in batches.

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Emotional shocks warn of pullbacks, highs not TP's Now you get it!

According to CMC, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose slightly to 52 (neutral) at the end of the week, a clear stabilization from yesterday's 46, but still lower than last week's 55 and last month's 53, continuing the trend of overall sentiment cooling rapidly from its highs. It's worth noting that the index's slide from the late May highs is highly consistent with BTC's rebound after this week's sharp drop, suggesting that the market is digesting the overheated sentiment and leverage risk.

As you can see from the chart, when the Fear & Greed Index hit the "greed" edge in mid-May and fell all the way back, it was a warning sign. Entering, rather than exiting, the market when it is "extremely greedy" often results in taking over the market at a high level. Today's neutral range is much healthier, and frankly, if you didn't reduce your positions and went all in, you can only look at the charts now and realize that we really did warn you about this in the last couple of weeks' weekly reports.

The drop in sentiment does not mean a full-blown short, but a necessary shuffle in the bull market. The fact that the index has stabilized in the neutral zone suggests that the short-term selling pressure has been initially digested, and if fear returns, it is a low-buy signal. If you know how to look at the index, you will know how to smile when the market is in fear.

Capital flows on hold: HyperEVM continues to be divested, Polygon PoS a bright spot

Against the backdrop of the overall market downturn, capital flows on the chain are conservative and heavy. According to Artemis data, as of this week (7D), with the downward adjustment of Hyperliquid's currency price, Hyper EVM recorded a net outflow of about US$130 million, which is the most serious outflow in the chain, reflecting the significant decrease of capital risk appetite. Hyper EVM recorded a USD250 million outflow this week, compared to inflow's USD120 million, creating a huge funding gap. Solana (~0.7bn) and Base (~0.1bn) also showed significant net outflows, indicating that previously popular chains are facing pressure from profit-taking and confidence fluctuations.

Meanwhile, capital is gradually returning to chains with the advantages of stability and network effects, with Polygon PoS recording a net inflow of nearly $100 million, and Ethereum seeing a solid inflow (~$750 million) and modest net inflow, suggesting that institutions and large investors are more likely to park on lower-risk asset infrastructures during the market's correction. In addition, emerging main chains such as OP Mainnet and Unichain also recorded moderate positive inflows, suggesting that some funds are shifting to more liquid and performance-optimized emerging ecosystems.

The overall direction of capital flows is highly consistent with the pace of the recent market correction, as investors are withdrawing from high beta assets and redeploying to more volatile and credible main chains. This is not only a reflection of short-term risk aversion, but also a signal of medium-term asset restructuring - as the market gradually absorbs macro and policy pressures, solidly based public chains will be the preferred choice for the next wave of capital returns.

The Great Chain Migration: Solana Becomes a Relay Fortress, Hyper EVM Funding Continues to Escape

Amidst the continuous market correction and declining risk appetite, capital continues to reorganize between chains. According to deBridge's latest capital flow chart (6/1-6/7), HyperEVM is once again one of the largest net outflows, while Solana plays the dual role of "transit and capital absorption", and Base and Ethereum are the main gold absorbers and value havens respectively. The chart shows that a large amount of capital flows out of HyperEVM, mainly to Ethereum, Solana and Base, with clear lines and widths reflecting the large volume of transactions. In contrast, Solana is extremely active as both a source and receiver chain, with particularly intense flows to Base, HyperEVM, and Ethereum, while Base also shows strong absorption, with simultaneous inflows from Solana, HyperEVM, and Ethereum in multiple directions.

This flow pattern clearly reveals two trends: first, capital is being withdrawn at an accelerated pace from highly volatile L2s such as HyperEVM, reflecting profit-taking and risk-adjustment behavior; second, Solana is not only attractive as an application chain, but also as a chain mobility hub with low cost and high performance to support cross-chain transitions and deployment strategies; and, as evidenced by Base's strong money-absorption capabilities, its DeFi ecology and development activity are recognized by the market and have captured the spotlight in the chain's capital migration. DeFi ecology and development activity have been recognized by the market and have grabbed a central position in the chain's capital migration.

Combined with this week's market theme of pullbacks and corrections, this round of on-chain capital migration can be viewed as a solid reallocation of profits: capital is flowing from high beta ecologies (e.g., HyperEVM) to main and cross-chain hotspots (e.g., Solana and Base) to avoid shocks and rebuild positions, with Ethereum acting as a receiver and a staging ground in the flow of capital to solidify its position as the centerpiece of the chain's mobility. Ethereum is at the center of the liquidity chain.

TVL Slides 2.75% as DeFi Chain Funding Enters Wait-and-See Period

Chain capital activity has entered a short break this week, with Total Locked Positions (TVL) pulling back slightly from the previous high, and market sentiment turning to wait-and-see. According to DeFiLlama, as of June 7, DeFi's total TVL was $109.788B, down 2.75% from last week's high of $112B, reflecting that the market has entered a period of capital restructuring due to the impact of macro-economic and price pressures. This week, TVL has been sliding down since early June, from above the US$11 billion level; the curve in the chart shows a moderate downward trend, which corresponds to the overall downward trend of the market's risky assets.

Nevertheless, the total market capitalization of stablecoin is still as high as $249.963B, and DEX and Perps traded at $14.117B and $10.751B in 24 hours, which means that capital has not been withdrawn significantly, and has temporarily entered into a state of liquidity and adjustment. This round of TVL fall is not a panic withdrawal, but more like a natural correction after the rebound in the previous two weeks. Funds are still active in the chain, and the total market capitalization of stable currencies remains high, suggesting that funds are shifting to low volatility assets rather than exiting altogether, and that the overall market is in a typical oscillator period of "cashing in profits + waiting for opportunities".

The fall in TVL is closely related to this week's theme of "Market Pullback". Although capital has withdrawn from high Beta ecologies (e.g. Arbitrum) for a short period of time, it has not exited the market, but has entered into a defensive stance and strategic wait-and-see mode. Stable activity on the chain, coupled with high levels of stable money, means that the market is storing up energy for the next round of trading, and confirms the change in DeFi ecology from a high volatility cycle to a consolidation cycle.

Market stabilizes amidst volatility; those who lay low welcome rebound opportunities

The crypto market has turned stronger this week amidst the overall turbulence. Although the market sentiment is still conservative, most of the currencies have rebounded significantly from their previous lows. From the Crypto Bubbles weekly performance, we can see that WHITE (+35.7%) and SPX (+17.3%) have risen strongly, indicating that capital is gradually returning to the market after short-term panic selling, and there are signs of selective entry.

Analyzing the underlying logic, although individual currencies such as STX (-9.3%), JASMY (-5.2%), CRO (-6.2%) were still under pressure, the overall market did not continue the previous week's sharp downtrend, but rather showed a moderate recovery pattern. However, the overall market did not continue the previous week's sharp decline, but showed a moderate recovery. This reflects that investor sentiment has changed from panic to cautious optimism, and risk appetite has rebounded. In this environment, investors who used the Divided Choice Approach (DCA) strategy earlier this week have seen positive returns in the short term, especially in resilient currencies such as KAS (+5.6%), ICP (+5.4%), and FLR (+5.1%).

To summarize, while the market remained down on the surface this week, most currencies actually recovered somewhat. For short- to medium-term strategic investors, this shock provides a valuable opportunity to adjust positions and position themselves. If you can utilize DCA strategy when sentiment bottoms out, you are already at the relative low of the recovery and can benefit from the subsequent upturn.

June Token Unlocking Outlook: Panic Intensifies Volatility, Quality Projects Emerge as Low Suck Opportunities

With the Fear and Greed Index remaining at a low level and investor sentiment turning conservative, the upcoming large unlocking event in June may be the trigger to further amplify market volatility. According to the latest data, ZRO will unlock as much as US$55.53 million on June 13, accounting for 23.13% of the unlocked market value, while ZK will unlock US$41.92 million on June 10, accounting for 20.91% of the unlocked market value. such high ratio of unlocked items will easily trigger short-term sell-offs if there is no solid bullish support.

It is worth noting that some of the upcoming unlocked items are supported by strong fundamentals and active communities, which are expected to resist the downtrend in the market panic and even provide good opportunities for value layout. For example, SUI will be unlocked on June 23rd with US$145 million, accounting for 1.30% of market capitalization, but its price has risen strongly by +10.40% this week, indicating that the market is still confident in its long-term potential; OP is expected to release US$19.44 million on June 22nd, accounting for a mere 1.83% of market capitalization, and it has also recorded an increase of +2.62%, which is a relatively solid performance.

Overall, against the backdrop of the current panic in the market, the token unlocking may be magnified and interpreted as a potential negative, intensifying volatility in the short term. However, this also provides a window of "greed amidst fear" strategy. Investors should focus on projects with fundamental support and high capital activity, such as SUI, OP, etc., and make low-grade positions amidst the irrational market sentiment, waiting for sentiment to warm up and push up the valuation reversion.

Pump.fun to issue coins at a valuation of $4 billion, threatening to drain market liquidity again.

Pump.fun is proposing a $1 billion token sale in the next two weeks, with an estimated valuation of $4 billion, making it a potential liquidity black hole after emerging public chains like Base and Berachain. According to Blockworks, which cited multiple sources familiar with the matter, the token offering will be open to both public and private parties, and while no launch date has been specified, officials have hinted on the X platform that "it's coming soon.

From the data on the chain, Pump.fun has created a fanaticism for minting miniature coins in the Solana ecosystem over the past year, with the cumulative number of coins minted exceeding 11 million and the platform generating more than US$700 million in revenues, which has created a strong capital-absorbing effect on the market. The launch of the token sale will definitely absorb more existing liquidity, especially at a time when mainstream assets are consolidating sideways and the capital wait-and-see atmosphere is heating up, which will create an additional capital crowding out effect.

It is worth noting that from the latest 24-hour liquidation data, the market has shown signs of weakness. According to the heatmap, the liquidation amount reached $313 million, of which long orders accounted for as much as 84% ($263 million), indicating that the recent long sentiment has been reversed. If Pump.fun's large-scale money-sucking program comes to fruition, coupled with macro uncertainty and cooling trading sentiment, it could further deteriorate the liquidity environment and aggravate the price pressure on small and medium-sized assets. Overall, Pump.fun's coin-issuing initiative certainly symbolizes the successful transformation of its business model, but it may constitute a short-term negative for the current market structure with limited capital. Investors are advised to carefully assess their capital allocation and be wary of the potential risk of liquidity being diluted again.

The cloud of doubt behind the Trump family's cut with the $TRUMP crypto project

The Trump family is once again involved in a crypto melee. According to CNN, a crypto wallet called the "Official $TRUMP Wallet" was officially announced on Tuesday on the Magic Eden platform with the aim of encouraging users to trade the $TRUMP cryptocurrency. However, the move immediately sparked controversy. Trump's sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, have since publicly clarified that the family "had no knowledge of this" and emphasized that the wallet was not officially authorized by any of the family or the Trump Organization.

According to reports, the wallet is a collaboration between the team behind Trump's cryptocurrency and the crypto platform Magic Eden, and has been announced on the official website and social media platform X. Crypto researcher Molly White, quoted by CNN, said that it was not a fake by a nameless team, but rather by a "team of people who have a sizeable presence in the industry," which is even more puzzling. A spokesperson for the Trump family also emphasized in a statement that "no agreement was signed with the Trump Organization" on the case, indicating a clear information gap between the two parties.

The whole incident has exposed the risk structure of the crypto industry, which is intertwined with "brand authentication", "unclear rights and responsibilities" and "potential fraud". For a market eager to speculate on celebrity cryptocurrencies, this case is a wake-up call: when the reputations of powerful politicians and businessmen are weaponized, retail investors and Trump supporters are likely to be the biggest casualties.

JD Vance declares to the world, "Crypto is coming to the White House."

SharpLink Gaming has announced that it will make a massive purchase of Ether (ETH) for the company's treasury assets in a fundraising program of up to $1 billion, in a move that has been dubbed the "Ether version of MicroStrategy," and which promises to be a key catalyst for a new wave of Ether longs.

According to SharpLink's filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 30th, the company will issue up to $1 billion in common stock, and "we plan to use almost all of the proceeds from this offering to acquire Ether (ETH)," the filing states. The company also officially launched its Ether Vault strategy on May 27 and appointed Ether co-founder Joseph Lubin as Chairman of the Board of Directors, demonstrating its high level of recognition and commitment to the long-term value of ETH.

SharpLink's move is clearly modeled after MicroStrategy's crypto financial allocation strategy. SharpLink has been buying Bitcoin since 2020, and has accumulated 580,250 Bitcoin to date, with a position valued at US$60.7 billion, accounting for a total BTC supply of about 3%, which has led to a surge in its share price of more than 2,400,00%. SharpLink's attempt to include ETH as a core asset shows that the organization is gradually expanding its capital focus from BTC to ETH, a change that has the potential to reshape the positioning of Ether assets and the market narrative. This shift has the potential to reshape Ether's asset positioning and market narrative.

Sonic Labs Launches 200 Million S-Coin Incentive Program, Eco-Investment Heats Up

Sonic Labs officially announced on Tuesday that it will be airdropping 200 million S tokens to users and developers in its ecosystem, and has made an exception to include U.S. residents as compliance targets, which not only symbolizes confidence in the future development of the chain, but also injects a positive investment signal for the market as a whole. The airdrop program covers three specific roles - Sonic Points, Sonic Gems, and Game Gems - and distributes a total of 190.5 million S coins.

According to the official announcement, the first quarter of the airdrop is expected to be open for collection in December 2025, with the first batch of 25% unlocked and the rest released linearly within 270 days. What's more noteworthy is that if users choose to collect the tokens early, they will face the penalty mechanism of having some of their tokens burned, prompting participants to favor long-term lock-in and ecological contributions. According to DeFiLlama, although the TVL has dropped from the high of $1.14 billion in mid-May to $861 million, the daily transaction volume of Sonic Ecology still maintains at over $400 million, reflecting an active user base and steady activity on the chain.

Analytically, the airdrop design, combined with a pledged APY (4.61%), real-time score updates, and a compliant expansion strategy, not only responds to short-term market sentiment, but also creates a stabilizing expectation for medium- to long-term capital formation. Airdrops are the beginning of investment, and Sonic is paving the way for the next round of expansion.

8 Billion in Unrealized Profits Goes to Zero: Wynn Case Reveals the Importance of "Safe Pockets"

James Wynn was once sitting on more than $100 million in unrealized Bitcoin profits thanks to his trading skills, but ended up losing all of it due to a lack of risk management and a failure to exit the market in time. This incident is a classic example of high-leverage trading and highlights the need for immediate profit-taking and capital management.

According to reports, Wynn held a long position in Bitcoin at the end of May 2025 worth as much as $1.25 billion, with a leverage of up to 40 times, and ended up liquidating the entire position in a sharp drop in BTC for a loss of nearly $100 million. Despite the huge profit, Wynn did not choose to take profit, but re-entered the market on June 2, opening a new position worth $100 million (945 BTC) with only $2.5 million margin, and adding $480,000 to try to lower the liquidation price to $103,637, showing that his operation is still on the side of aggressiveness and risk.

Wynn's behavior proves that he does have market acumen and highly leveraged operating skills, but it also reveals a serious lack of risk management. Even if his short-term judgment was accurate, the lack of a risk-control mechanism was enough to wipe out even the best of his skills when the market fluctuated dramatically. The unrealized profits that he used to have to protect his wealth for the rest of his life are now zero, and he has even been involved in the controversy of reverse trading and manipulation in the market, which makes us think: overconfidence and risk dance together, and ultimately, it will only lead to self-destruction.

Remember: If you've made enough money to change your life, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. You can stop working for money and stop being the toxic gambler who bets his life against the market.

OpenSea Launches OS2 Platform, SEA Airdrop Coming

As the world's largest NFT market, OpenSea has officially launched its upgraded platform OS2 and announced the release of its native token SEA, the market is concerned about whether this move will be the spark that ignites the recovery of the NFT circuit. According to OpenSea's official announcement, the new OS2 platform is now out of the beta stage and supports token trading across 19 blockchains, demonstrating its strategic shift from a single NFT asset to a multi-chain crypto market.

OpenSea's platform upgrade is not only a technical optimization, but also a counter-attack to the downturn in the NFT market. Through cross-chain scaling and community incentives, it aims to rebuild the confidence and mobility base of participants. In particular, the SEA airdrop is expected to attract a large number of users back to the market, which will lead to an uptick in activity on the chain. As CEO Devin Finzer said, OS2 will become "the platform of choice for everything on the chain," suggesting that OpenSea intends to expand beyond NFTs into a full-fledged cryptocurrency exchange.

'47th President' airdrops $47: Trump's crypto-synergy makes a strong comeback

With World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a Trump-related project, completing a $4 million USD1 stablecoin airdrop, the crypto community has renewed strong expectations for the "Trump x Crypto" narrative, and market sentiment has turned optimistic, which may signal a new round of crypto layouts by Trump to attract Web3 votes and capital.

On Wednesday, WLFI automatically distributed $47 USD1 to each of its more than 85,000 token holders, symbolically corresponding to the identity of the "47th U.S. President". The no-request, no-link, no-fail distribution, which was executed on the Ethernet network, not only demonstrated the sophistication of the technology, but was also widely applauded by the community. According to official and Lookonchain data, the initiative was quickly trending on X. At the same time, USD1 was gaining traction on X. The company was also gaining traction on X. At the same time, USD1's market capitalization soared to $2.18 billion after listing on Binance, with volume surging by 6,700%.

The symbolism of the airdrop goes beyond financial incentives; its political and market implications are equally critical. The Trump camp not only used the airdrop to rally the masses, but also to validate the effectiveness of distributed community mobilization and on-chain governance, paving the way for future WLFI open deals. As evidenced by the 99.961% support rate for TP3T in the governance vote, community consensus is strong, and expectations for the opening of trading are rising. In addition, the news of Trump's media application for a Bitcoin ETF was also revealed, reinforcing his "pro-crypto" stance.

Aave Launches Umbrella Risk Mitigation: Paving the Way for TradFi and DeFi Alignment

As the largest and most influential decentralized financial protocol by market capitalization, Aave's launch of Umbrella, a new risk mitigation mechanism, represents a formal move towards a more institutionalized and risk-led development path that is likely to attract further participation in DeFi from traditional financial institutions (TradFi).

According to the official announcement, the Aave community approved the Umbrella activation program by governance vote in early June, which allows users to pledge their aTokens in exchange for revenue, and uses DAO treasury funds as the first layer of insurance to offset the risk of bad debt. In the event of an asset loss, "Umbrella has a configurable parameter that prioritizes the use of the DAO treasury before reducing the aToken pledger's funds," which is similar to the design of "the platform bears the loss first, and the pledger shares it later," and has a logic similar to traditional financial insurance.

Aave's reform not only strengthens the security of the agreement, but also demonstrates its determination to move closer to institutional capital. For TradFi institutions, which have long been concerned about risk control mechanisms and capital preservation, Umbrella provides a defense similar to deposit insurance, eliminating their concerns about entering the DeFi space and institutionalizing risk transparency. This is expected to be an important incentive for traditional capital to enter the market.

Macro News

Trump faces pressure from many sides as Musk fights back against tax reform bill: uncertainty may depress crypto market

Trump's 'huge and beautiful bill' has not only attracted strong criticism from academics, but has also been openly opposed by the ever-close Musk, symbolizing the unprecedented social and allied pressures on his political leadership, further exacerbating policy uncertainty and creating a depressing effect on the crypto market.

The bill passed the House of Representatives last week along party lines, but was met with much opposition. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Steve Musk called the bill a "disgusting monstrosity," criticized it for excessive military and border spending, and said it would widen the deficit and debt. At the same time, six Nobel Prize-winning economists jointly issued an open letter criticizing the bill for weakening social safety nets such as Medicare and SNAP (Food Stamps) and exacerbating income inequality, which would cause real harm to the working class.

The shift in Musk's position is particularly indicative. As a business ally who has openly supported Trump in the past, Mask's tough comments highlight the rift within the Trump administration and the surrounding supportive forces. In addition, when Congress and think tanks are sharply divided on the policy outlook, market confidence is naturally undermined. Nobel Prize-winning scholars have warned that the bill will lead to record high real interest payments on the debt, putting upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, which is tantamount to weakening risk appetite in investment and asset markets.

Crypto is closely tied to macro policy. During the current sensitive period for US bond rates and inflation expectations, any tax reform and fiscal policy-induced deficit expansion and market uncertainty could dampen safe-haven demand for crypto and lead to a wait-and-see approach. Despite Trump's continued party dominance, the backlash, including from Musk and academic heavyweights, has challenged the legitimacy of his policies. This high-level rift and policy divergence not only heightens concerns about the sustainability of US finances, but could also be a key variable depressing near-term crypto upside.

U.S.-China Leaders' Call Relieves Tension, But Uncertainty Risks Remain

Trump's rare phone call with Xi Jinping briefly eased tensions over the US-China trade and tech conflict, sparking optimism and pushing stocks up for four days. However, historical experience and structural dichotomies suggest that this is only a short-term stimulus for crypto markets and does not remove fundamental uncertainties.

According to Bloomberg, China's foreign ministry said the call was initiated by Trump and was the first official contact between the two since he took office. The conversation took place against the backdrop of mutual accusations that the U.S. and China have violated the trade truce, and the recent resurgence of issues surrounding rare earth exports, the U.S. tech ban, and student visas. Despite the 90-day tariff reduction agreement reached by the two sides in Geneva last month, the trade talks remain deeply divisive. The S&P 500 rose for four days after the news was announced, with the market clearly hopeful for a "cooling talk".

In the short term, the market interpreted the direct dialogue between the US and China leaders as a "brake on the escalation of confrontation", which led to a rebound in risk assets. However, the unresolved fundamental conflicts between the US and China, including the Taiwan issue, technological autonomy, AI chips and rare earths, as well as the increasingly hostile political atmosphere, limit the depth and durability of any "phased reconciliation". Experience from the past trade wars in 2018-2020 also shows that even if an initial agreement is reached, it can be easily derailed by implementation and political variables, leading to multiple rounds of tariff increases and repeated negotiations. Crypto markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical and macro risks. In the short term, this call may prompt some capital outflows from safe-haven assets such as the US dollar or gold to risky assets including cryptocurrencies, leading to a rebound in prices.

However, as the nature of the US-China tech war remains unchanged, and AI chips and blockchain infrastructure are still sensitive areas in terms of technology and national security, any further impasse in the talks or the resumption of a new round of tech sanctions may once again stir up risk aversion in the market and put pressure on crypto asset prices. Overall, while the call has injected short-term optimism into the market, the crypto market's response may be short-lived as the deeper structure of the US-China conflict remains unresolved, and a concrete agreement is still far off in the distance, with volatility and policy uncertainty remaining. Investors should keep an eye on the progress of the negotiations and the implementation of specific policies, and carefully assess the potential return of geo-risks behind the technical rebound.

Chained Data Analysis:

Rising Political Risk: Rational Pullback and Macro Repricing after Bitcoin's Record Highs

While Bitcoin continues to hit record highs, geopolitical and macroeconomic risks could be a major limiting factor in its upward price movement. According to the data, Bitcoin recently broke above its all-time high for the third time, hitting US$111,000, before quickly pulling back to US$107,000 and consolidating around US$108,000, in a classic "take profit after price discovery" pattern. This phenomenon is also reflected in the chart - the short-term fall in price after the high, and the small increase in profit realization levels, but no frantic selling, suggesting that the market atmosphere has become more cautious.

This pullback is not simply a technical correction, but more likely the result of the market's re-pricing of the current international situation and macro risks. There are multiple uncertainties around the world, including rising trade friction between the US and China, uncertainty over the US election, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and the still high cost of capital globally, all of which have weakened the market's willingness to pursue risky assets. Even if Bitcoin is strong in the short term, its long term trend cannot ignore the external structural risks.

In the cryptocurrency market, while prices reflect a collective consensus on future expectations, this consensus is often strongly influenced by geopolitical and financial policies. For example, the short-term decline in Bitcoin during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 illustrates that even with the decentralized nature of blockchain, its asset price is still highly sensitive to external macro variables. Therefore, the current price correction should be viewed as a natural market response to the complex external environment.

Powerful Absorption Revisited: Harnessing Reverse Opportunities in Group Behavior

Despite the market's rational short-term pullback, some major funds are taking advantage of the situation to enter the market and make preparations, showing signs of "strong absorption" that deviate from retail sentiment, creating a market momentum anomaly that deserves attention. According to the "BTC Accumulation Trend Score" chart provided by Glassnode, since the highs of $70K and $107K in March and November 2024 respectively, there has been a strong accumulation momentum in the market, with the Accumulation Score rapidly approaching 1.0, indicating that participants of all wallet sizes have been engaged in synchronized absorption behaviors.

This type of crowded behavior usually occurs during the price discovery phase, as investors tend to enter the market collectively when a psychological barrier (such as an all-time high) is broken, reinforcing the market's home-trend sentiment. However, there are potential risks associated with such "crowded trading". History shows that a similar strong absorption zone was seen in November 2021 when Bitcoin hit a 69K high, which eventually turned into the start of the 2022 bear market. This shows that even with strong cumulative momentum, there is always a potential risk of a trend reversal when the market becomes too uniform.

To summarize, although the current strong absorption signals reflect the market's long-term bullishness on Bitcoin, retail investors should be wary of the risks associated with the herd effect and avoid blindly chasing highs. Instead of chasing hotspots, it is better to lay out quietly in the low-heat area, and adopt a counter-intuitive mindset in order to truly stand on the side of advantage.

MVRV Red Alert: Price enters deviation zone, prudent stopping of profits is advisable.

However, risk management is especially critical when prices are rising in tandem with market sentiment. In addition to observing capital movements, the on-chain valuation model provides another important warning that the Bitcoin price is entering a historically high deviation zone. When Bitcoin price enters a "high deviation zone", historical experience shows that it is often accompanied by a phased market top, especially when it enters the red zone of MVRV +1σ or higher, which should be viewed as a potential profit-taking opportunity.

According to the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands analytical model provided by Glassnode, the price of Bitcoin is currently oscillating and consolidating between +0.5σ ($100,200) and +1σ ($119,400), clearly entering the "warning zone" that has preceded the highs of many bull markets in the past. The model quantifies the market's deviation from the average cost basis by calculating the standard deviation from Bitcoin's Realized Price to identify whether investors' unrealized profits are too high, inducing concentrated selling pressure.

Historically, when price breaks out of the +1σ range and continues to deviate (e.g., the two waves of highs in April and November 2021), it often marks the top formation stage of a long-term long position. This is because when the MVRV deviates too far from the average cost, it means that the market as a whole has accumulated a large amount of unrealized profits, and once confidence is shaken, profit-taking and price corrections will be triggered quickly. Therefore, the current price range of +0.5σ to +1σ should be considered as an important time for strategic risk management and partial profit stops. Rationally utilizing the deviation range defined by the MVRV, as opposed to greed-driven chasing of highs, is the only way to stay afloat in a volatile market.

Short-term holders' MVRV recovered sharply in tandem with the recovery in confidence driven by the doubling of unrealized profits

At the same time, short-term technical indicators have also started to release overheated signals, further proving that the current market has entered a relatively sensitive stage, and investors should be cautious about the risk of short-term volatility. According to the latest Crypto Market RSI Heatmap released by CoinGlass, the one-period average of RSI has rebounded to 41.02, which is significantly higher than the average of the previous downturn of about 30-35 percent. This is significantly higher than the average of the previous downturn, which was in the 30-35 range. Mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), TRX, MASK, AAVE, etc. have entered the "strong" range (60-70), and some of them, such as BTC, are approaching the "overheated" threshold, indicating that the bullish momentum is building up.

This phenomenon reflects a shift in market sentiment from fear to greed and plenty of short-term momentum. However, according to technical analysis, when the RSI approaches or exceeds 70, it enters overbought territory, which is often a precursor to a price correction, especially when rallies are not backed by real capital and chain activity, which raises the risk. Looking at the historical cycle, after the RSI bounces back from very low to neutral or strong territory, the market tends to have a short-term bull market followed by a correction, which provides a high probability exit point for short-term profit takers.

Compared to the RSI oversold structure under the panic sentiment a few weeks ago, the technical picture has improved significantly at this stage, reflecting the return of capital to the market and increased investment confidence. However, short-term sentiment is heating up too fast, so we should be cautious of chasing highs and strategically reduce our bets depending on the RSI range of individual targets, such as BTC, TRX, MASK, etc., which have entered the high-risk zone, and it is recommended that we prioritize the taking of profits to control the risk of retracement.

BTC Whale Aggressive Sucking? Or are they hedging their positions?

In addition to the signs of a turnaround in technical and market sentiment, structural changes in the chain also reveal a deeper trend - the large-scale entry behavior of new whales may become a key force shaping the medium- to long-term trend. The Bitcoin market is currently undergoing a significant movement: new whales have steadily increased their positions since mid-2024, and by June 2025 they had accumulated over 1.1 million BTC, a record high. This indicator is also increasingly linked to the Bitcoin price, forming a key structural signal.

From one perspective, this phenomenon may indicate that a new round of institutional capital is actively entering the market. In view of the improving macro environment, stabilizing asset prices and the opening up of capital pipeline by compliant products such as ETFs, the main capital may regard the current price range as a long-term value zone and choose to increase its holdings on the low side. The large volume of buying will help reduce selling pressure and drive prices upward gradually, constituting a key momentum in the early stages of a bull market.

However, from another perspective, this may also reflect a defensive reallocation of capital within the market: as many cottage currencies are still in the mid-stage of a pullback or downtrend, many medium-sized investors and large retail investors are gradually switching their capital from highly volatile Altcoins to relatively stable Bitcoin positions in order to preserve their capital or stabilize their positions, resulting in the phenomenon of "new whales" increasing their holdings in the accounts, which may not be a true inflow of new capital in reality.

It is worth noting that at this stage, the dominance of price movements is increasingly driven by macro news and the policy environment, including inflation expectations, interest rate movements, US equity risk asset movements, and US presidential election variables, all of which could become catalysts for a new round of price volatility. Therefore, even if the chain data shows a long position structure, the price reaction is still extremely sensitive and depends more on capital's confidence in the overall economic environment and risk appetite.

To summarize, the uptrend of the new whale could be either an early sign of institutional fundraising or a reflection of a safe-haven position. Either way, it shows that Bitcoin's safe-haven status as a mainstream asset is strengthening and laying the groundwork for a bull market in the future.

Conclusion:

These shocks and bursts do not represent the end of the bull market, but rather a sensible correction to overheated sentiment. If you're feeling panicky at the moment, it may be a sign that you're investing beyond your risk tolerance and need to re-examine your allocation and capital management. The real opportunities come at the hardest times - don't wait until the price doubles in two months to regret not adding to your position. The smart ones never chase highs at the peak, but rather add to their positions in the midst of fear. If you can stabilize your emotions and stay disciplined with DCA, you will be at the starting point of the next major uptrend.

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Special reminder:Due to my year-end examination next week, I will take a break in my weekly report next week! I will continue to bring you the most in-depth market insights and analysis on behalf of Monsterblockhk after the examination.

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