ETF 資金流出創新高、MVRV 指標觸底，比特幣暴跌後還能反彈嗎？

According to the recent MVRV Z Index, the valuation of the Bitcoin market has fallen from around 3.5 to around 1.5, reflecting a possible undervaluation of the market.The MVRV Z Score, which measures the degree of deviation of the market value from the realized value, has historically reached highs above 7 during the bull market periods of 2013, 2017 and 2021.

The current Z Score level suggests that the market is not yet in a bubble, but may be in value accumulation territory. With reference to past cycles, this could mean that the bull market has yet to really kick in and this may be a good time for long-term investors to take a step-by-step approach. Investors can look for a further rise in the Z Score. If the indicator continues to rise and economic data improves, it could signal further strength. However, if the Z Score stays low, there is a risk of a lack of confidence in the market.

It is believed that later this year, as market sentiment strengthens, this index will test the 8-point index, which is indicative of a major bull market.

The Hash Ribbons indicator is used to determine the bottom of the Bitcoin price based on the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the miners' power. When short-term power falls below long-term power and reverses, it usually indicates the end of the miners' capitulation and a bottom in the price. Red areas indicate a pullback in the market, often after a rapid rise.

For the first time, the 30-day and 60-day moving averages are now outpacing the price of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cost of mining is higher than the market price and that the asset may be undervalued. The data shows that the price of Bitcoin is closely correlated with its arithmetic power. The black line represents the BTC price, while the blue and purple lines are the 30-day and 60-day moving averages, respectively. Power continues to rise, reflecting a robust network and strong confidence among miners.

Calculation power has just retreated from record highs, and the synchronized decline in market prices may be a short-term absorption of the increase. However, long-term fundamentals are solid, and if power continues to grow, prices are expected to rise in line with market confidence. Depending on their situation, investors may consider adding to their positions at the lower end of the market.

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CoinSafe's New Policy: Users Vote on Token Uploads and Downloads CoinSafe, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has recently announced the launch of an innovative "Community Governance" system, which allows users to vote on the uploads and downloads of tokens on the platform. According to the official description, CoinSafe will pre-select qualified projects for the community to vote on, and the tokens with the highest number of votes can be uploaded and traded after scrutiny. However, if a project fails to update its progress on a regular basis, has insufficient information transparency, or has an inactive team and community, it will be placed in a "control zone". Projects in the control zone will be voted on again by users to be taken off the market. The new policy comes amidst a rapidly expanding number of cryptocurrencies, with the number of crypto assets in the world now exceeding 12.4 million, and about 1.4 million tokens added in the past month alone. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also said that the traditional one-by-one review process is no longer able to keep up with the pace of the market, and recommended the use of a "permission list" and "block list" mechanism. It is recommended to use the "Allow List" and "Block List" mechanisms, which combine community review and on-chain data, to cope with the rapid increase of new tokens. The market generally believes that CoinSecure's community governance model will become an important solution for mainstream platforms to solve the problem of token proliferation in the future, and at the same time effectively enhance the transparency of the platform and the sense of community participation.

MGX Spends $2 Billion on Binance, Setting New Crypto Industry Record On Wednesday, MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence and advanced technology investment firm, and Binance, the world's largest crypto trading platform, announced a $2 billion strategic investment agreement, setting a new record for a single investment in the crypto space and the first large-scale institutional investment paid for in a stable currency. The move marks MGX's first foray into the crypto and blockchain industry, taking a small stake in Binance. Binance CEO Richard Teng emphasized that this partnership is not only an important milestone for the platform, but also a major turning point for the crypto industry. He said the platform will continue to strengthen its security compliance measures and work with global regulators to promote the development of a responsible and transparent digital financial ecosystem. It is worth noting that Binance has rarely accepted large-scale institutional investments in the past, and it is speculated that this partnership may be related to strengthening cash flow and seeking political asylum, especially as the regulatory environment in the U.S. continues to tighten, and the large amount of money will help Binance cope with the pressure of funding after the fine, and continue to maintain the platform's operations.

70 Billion CRO 'Revival' Proposal Riles Recently Cronos proposed to reissue 70 billion CRO tokens that have been "destroyed" in 2021, or about $5.3 billion, to build up a strategic reserve. The proposal aims to restore the total CRO supply to 100 billion tokens, which would be released in a gradual unlocking process over 5 to 10 years. However, the proposal sparked strong dissatisfaction in the community, with 95.7% of users voting against the proposal and only 3.45% in favor. After the news was released, the price of the CRO currency plummeted by 8% in 24 hours, and the market was worried that the massive increase in the issuance of tokens would dilute the value of the assets and undermine the confidence of the holders. In November last year, the community voted to reduce the supply of CROs by 50 million tokens, but now the sudden proposal to increase issuance has seriously undermined investors' trust in the team. The vote is still ongoing and the final result will have a direct impact on the future price of CROs.

Bubblemaps Launches Fundraising Cryptocurrency data analytics platform Bubblemaps (BMT) successfully held a Token Generation Event (TGE) on March 11, 2025, raising $800,000 through BNB Smart Chain and PancakeSwap, releasing a total supply of 4% of Bubblemaps, with its visualized bubble map interface, makes complex blockchain transaction data easy to understand for general users, and has successfully tracked the internal transactions and capital flows of projects such as HAWK and SHIRO. In addition, the platform has been integrated with Web3 applications such as Pumpfun, Photon, and Etherscan, and has partnered with public chains such as Solana, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Avalanche, etc. Nicolas, President of Bubblemaps, said that he hopes to use the Intel Desk feature to promote community participation in surveys and to reduce Bubblemaps President Nicolas said that he hopes to use the Intel Desk feature to promote community participation in surveys and reduce market opacity.

Hyperliquid Giant Whale's Leveraged Trade Busts, Platform Loses $4 Million Decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid recently suffered a major loss. A giant whale (address 0xf3f4) took a $200 million position in ETH with 50x leverage, but was forced to close the position due to a margin call, ultimately costing the platform's liquidity provider about $4 million. Hyperliquid immediately announced that it would reduce its leverage limits to 40 times for BTC and 25 times for ETH to avoid a repeat of this incident. Ben Zhou, founder of ByBit, pointed out that the lack of perfect market monitoring of highly leveraged trading will continue to pose risks, and that DEX will have to strengthen its risk control in the future in order to avoid a repeat of the same mistake.

Russia-Ukraine Temporary Truce, Non-Farm Data, Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate

On Wednesday night, significant progress was made in the talks between the United States and Russia. According to several international media reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed "in principle" to a 30-day temporary ceasefire, while announcing that Russian troops are in full control of the Kursk front, and that the details of the withdrawal or surrender of the Ukrainian army are still to be negotiated between the two sides. Bitcoin prices fell below the $79,500 mark before the announcement, but quickly rebounded to $81,000. If the three-year conflict is finally resolved peacefully this year, global political stability is expected to be restored and economic activity is expected to revive, bringing positive momentum to the cryptocurrency market.

The latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, below the market's estimate of 160,000, but the overall growth trend remained stable. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, but was still within the Federal Reserve Board's (FED) forecast range, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient. On the inflation front, the latest CPI fell from 7% in 2022 to around 3% at present, but is still some way short of the FED's target of 2%. It is worth noting that while high interest rates have succeeded in curbing inflation, they have not significantly increased the unemployment rate, a phenomenon that the FED called "rare but gratifying".

If the job market continues to stabilize, the FED may continue to keep interest rates high until inflation reaches the 2% target, which could put pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, if the unemployment rate rises rapidly in the future, the FED may be forced to cut interest rates earlier in order to stabilize the economy, which could be a strong catalyst for a rapid rebound in the currency market. The CPI will be an important indicator for the market in the coming months. If inflation continues to ease and the job market remains stable, it is expected to pave the way for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which will further fuel optimism in the cryptocurrency market.

Recent changes in U.S. trade policy continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The Trump administration originally announced that it would impose tariffs of up to $50% on Canadian steel and aluminum products, but the U.S. ultimately reversed its decision to impose tariffs after Canada announced that it was suspending a surcharge on its electricity exports to the U.S. and agreed to reopen U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal negotiations. Bitcoin rebounded quickly after the announcement, recovering from $79,000 to $82,000.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers noted in a post on social media X that the current economic environment can no longer withstand the instability brought about by more policies, and argued that the repetition of such policies is "unnecessarily damaging" to the U.S. economy. This incident once again highlights the enormous influence of US policy on global investment markets. Recent market movements have been significantly influenced by macro policy, and investors are closely monitoring policy changes and adjusting their asset allocations. If future policy reversals in the U.S. continue, it is expected that market volatility will further increase and the cryptocurrency market will face greater uncertainty.

Market Analysis: Bitcoin Under Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Outlook Remains Optimistic

This week, market sentiment towards Bitcoin was in a state of extreme panic, with the price dropping rapidly to $78,200 after the White House Crypto Summit. Investors were expecting the U.S. government to announce a more aggressive Bitcoin purchasing policy, but in the end, it only involved the confiscation of BTC as a strategic reserve, which led to a spread of disappointment and an increase in short-term selling pressure.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said the currency could retest the $78,000 support level in the near term, and if it falls below that level, it could fall further to the $75,000 area, cautioning investors to be aware of the large number of open options in the area that could cause sharp volatility. However, he also pointed out that in the event of a mini-crisis that causes the FED to restart easing, Bitcoin could see a sharp rise towards the end of the year, even reaching $250,000," he said.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has also hinted on social media that he is about to launch a new buying program, and with the company's stock NAV premium having risen by 23%, the market is speculating that he may be able to raise more funds to make a significant purchase of BTC, further fueling the market's rebound.

Overall, the market is still under pressure in the short term due to negative factors such as ETF outflows and policy disappointments, but the stable money market continues to grow in size, meaning that there is still plenty of potential capital. Once the policy risks are mitigated and capital flows back into risk assets, the market is expected to start a new uptrend.

The Chain Track Stats Analysis: Berachain's Rise to Ecology

The cryptocurrency market has seen some interesting capital flows over the course of the week. Money flowed out of the Ether chain and into the Berachain and Base chains. There was a noticeable decrease in on-chain capital flows this week. Notably, the Berachain chain attracted $75 million in inflows this week, demonstrating its strong market appeal. Berachain has over 110 projects internally, and with $2.6 billion pre-funded by the Royco program, its Total Value Locked in (TVL) surpassed $3.1 billion, quickly moving it to the sixth spot on the public chain's TVL list. The Ether Chain has over $100 million in outflows. Etherchain's outflows of over 100 million can also be reflected in the currency price.

Berachain's core strength lies in its ability to integrate volatility with on-chain applications to create a resilient ecosystem. According to @capnjackbearow's analysis, Berachain's "Proof of Liquidity (PoL)" mechanism automatically adjusts liquidity under different market cycles, creating unique economic dynamics.

In the early stages of development, 1 million BGTs are released weekly as an incentive, equivalent to approximately $6 million, providing a generous liquidity bonus for the initial project. As the ecosystem grows, higher bribe amounts drive up BGT yields, attracting more capital. The ecosystem further expands as the total locked position (TVL) on the chain increases and the number of applications grows. As the price of BERA tokens rises, the weekly incentive amount increases, and the overall efficiency of spending is strengthened, creating a strong negative feedback loop.

Berachain has a stabilizing mechanism even when the market goes down. When total incentives are reduced and BGT returns fall, users tend to burn BGTs for BERA and sell them, resulting in lower BERA prices and smaller incentives. As more BGTs are destroyed, the number of subscribers receiving bribe proceeds declines and the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) rises, thus re-attracting liquidity providers back to the market and gradually restabilizing the market.

These changes in capital flows not only reflect the market's confidence in the various public chains, but also show that investors are looking for new opportunities. With the rise of Berachain, the market may see more capital flowing into emerging chains and is counting on the dawn of the market downturn.

According to the chart, the on-chain stablecoin market reached a record high of US$220 billion as of March 2025. Despite the price correction, the market has not run out of capital, and the rise in stablecoin market capitalization reflects the large amount of capital that is on the sidelines, waiting for the market to turn around.

It is well known that an increase in the amount of stablecoins issued is a prerequisite for an increase in the price of Bitcoin. If the market capitalization of stablecoins stagnates, the possibility of capital inflows into Bitcoin to drive the price up will be reduced. The recent slowdown in the growth of stablecoin market capitalization is mainly due to the panic in the market, resulting in the selling of torrents and the flow of capital back to stablecoin for hedging.

In other words, the high stock of stable coins not only reveals short-term market panic, but also represents huge potential liquidity that has yet to be released. Once market confidence rebounds, these funds may quickly return to risky assets, driving a rebound in the cottage currency and kicking off a new bull market.

Outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs have further added to market pressures. According to sosovalue's linked data, the US Bitcoin Cash ETF has seen net outflows of more than $500 million since March 2024, with GBTC outflows particularly significant at Grayscale.

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted, "Bitcoin's cash demand growth is contracting, and short positions in the futures market are dominating, which is directly contributing to the price decline." Jacob King, founder of WhaleWire, stated bluntly, "The crypto bear market is here; ETFs are seeing record outflows, institutional demand narratives are collapsing, and Bitcoin is headed for multi-year lows."

Despite this extreme view, ETF outflows do reflect a waning of institutional enthusiasm. 2024 saw ETFs averaging net inflows of up to $200 million per day in the early part of the year, but today's shift to net outflows suggests that institutional investors are now re-evaluating the risk-return ratios of crypto assets.

Overall, the Bitcoin market has been under significant pressure in the short term due to ETF selling, unwinding of basis trading and exit of long-term holders. However, the stable currency market capitalization continues to climb, suggesting that the market has not run out of external capital, but is in a wait-and-see mode. If confidence in the market picks up, this potential liquidity could return quickly and become an important force in driving a new round of the market.

Hong Kong Local News

The highly anticipated "2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival" will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC) from April 6 to 9, and the organizers have recently announced part of the summit agenda. The event has attracted a number of heavyweight guests, including Mr. Paul Chan, the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, and Ms. Fiona Choi, the Director of the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong, who will give their views on the future development of Web3 and cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong. In addition, Vitalik, the founder of Ether and David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, will also be present at the summit to share their insights on the global crypto market, especially on the impact of US policies on the future of Bitcoin, which is worthy of investors' close attention.

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