美股大跌、黃金創新高，聯準會放緩縮表能否拯救比特幣？

This week's crypto market volatility intensified, with the XRP lawsuit officially ending, the spot ETF passing at 80%, and Toncoin surging 20% in a single day as a result of the Durov case. Meanwhile, BlackRock increased its stake in bitcoin by $218 million, and the influx of institutional capital continued to push BTC past $87,446.

Market Analysis: Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Institutional and Long-Term Holders Increase Holdings as Market Enters Shakeout

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the Bitcoin bull market is over and the market is expected to be in shock or on the downside for the next 6-12 months. As liquidity decreases, the giant whale sell-off intensifies, and the chain indicators MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL all show that market momentum is weakening. In addition, Bitcoin ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with institutional buying weakening and market demand declining.

However, his latest statement contradicts what he said a few days ago. At that time, he said, "Although demand for Bitcoin seems to be stagnant, it's too early to tell if there's a bear market," he said. This "short change of direction" has sparked debate in the market, with some netizens questioning: "Three days ago you said the bull market was still in place, but now you've changed it?

According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw $6.4 billion in outflows over the five-week period, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for $5.4 billion of that total. Despite this, long-term holders are taking advantage of the low levels and have seen their BTC holdings rise rapidly over the past 3-6 months, similar to previous market corrections. strategy recently bought 130 BTC at an average price of $82,981, indicating that institutional capital is still coming in.

We will look at the data on the chain in a moment to explain and understand the main reasons for the recent correction in the market, which is due to the decrease in liquidity in cryptocurrencies and the weakening of technical indicators. If the trend of ETF outflows continues, the market is likely to sink further; conversely, if liquidity picks up, the market is expected to rebound. An increase in the number of long-term holders may also support the price.

Recommended Cryptocurrency Trading Platforms
Hong Kong People's Top Choice for Bitcoin and Ether Trading 》 OSL is the first licensed exchange company in Hong Kong, enjoy up to HKD 10,088 bonus when you open an account.
Suitable for traditional Hong Kong investors to buy and sell stocks and currencies at the same time. Victory Securities: Open an account and get a free ticket to Tokyo and Taipei, and a concert flight.
More choices of contract currencies, suitable for buying fake coins in cash. Trade on MEXC and enjoy 400 times leverage and many other benefits!

This Week's Market Focus: Regulation, Collaboration and Liquidity Changes

The crypto market has been volatile lately, but several key events are reshaping investor sentiment - from Telegram founder Durov's legal crisis, to the Trump family's backing of WLFI's massive token sale and investment placement, to TRON and Solana's unexpected shift away from competition and toward cooperation. These developments are not only affecting individual projects, but may also be indicative of future trends in the crypto market.

Toncoin Markets React as Durov Leaves France in Connection with Case

Telegram founder Pavel Durov was charged in France for allegedly condoning illegal activities, facing up to 10 years in prison, and at one point was restricted from leaving the country. However, on March 17, French prosecutors lifted the ban, allowing him to return to Dubai, but requiring him to return to France on April 7 to answer questions.

Durov denied the allegations, criticizing the French authorities for over-enforcement, and emphasized that Telegram has stepped up content censorship and cooperation with law enforcement agencies around the world. The market reacted quickly to the news, with Toncoin (TON) rising nearly 20% overnight after the news broke, and is currently trading in the $3.3-$3.5 range. This shows that investors are still highly concerned about Durov's influence and Telegram's position in the crypto market. However, the future of TON will depend on the progress of the case and the EU's attitude towards the regulation of decentralized communication platforms.

XRP's Four-Year Lawsuit Ends, XRP Spot ETF Passing Odds Rise to 80%!

TON is not the only one whose regulatory environment continues to change, but the oldest coin in the cryptocurrency world, XRP, has also seen a major legal breakthrough! Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced Wednesday evening that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is withdrawing its appeal against Ripple, marking the end of a four-year lawsuit that Garlinghouse described as a major victory for Ripple and the cryptocurrency industry, and a sign that justice is being done.

Encouraged by the news, XRP quickly rose 10% to $2.58 for a short period of time before falling back to $2.49 on Thursday morning (before press time). With the conclusion of the lawsuit, expectations for the XRP spot ETF have risen. According to forecasting platform Polymarket, the chance of an XRP ETF being approved in 2025 has risen to 79.

This development is in line with the recent trend of the SEC deregulating cryptocurrencies, such as dropping investigations into platforms such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Uniswap, and downsizing the crypto enforcement division. It also reflects a shift in the U.S. regulatory environment toward the crypto industry following Trump's re-election, and is a great promise for a thriving crypto industry over the next four years.

Trump Family WLFI Closes $590 Million Token Sale, Unleashing Market Confidence?

Meanwhile, there was another key development in the market. Cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), backed by the Trump family and attracting a $30 million investment from Tron founder Justin Sun, announced the successful completion of a $590 million token sale.

Currently, WLFI Tokens are only available for purchase by qualified investors through KYC, are not transferable or publicly tradable on exchanges, and the timing of their availability on the shelves remains uncertain.

This news is seen as a shot in the arm for the market. The fact that senior US politicians are now directly involved in crypto asset issuance is a direct sign that the long-term regulatory environment will gradually turn favorable.

WLFI is not only making progress on the funding side, but also expanding its crypto asset allocation.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a DeFi project backed by the Trump family, spent $4 million on Saturday to buy Avalanche (AVAX) and Mantle (MNT), respectively, in an attempt to expand its crypto portfolio, according to Arkham Intelligence data.

However, WLFI's overall investment performance is poor and losses are still growing. According to Lookonchain's analysis, WLFI currently holds 11 digital assets, with a total investment of about $343 million, but the accumulated losses have reached $118 million. Among them, Ether (ETH) is the largest position, accounting for 58%, with an accumulated loss of $88 million.

From confrontation to cooperation between TRON and Solana?

The competitive landscape of the crypto market has changed subtly this week. On Tuesday, TRON founder Justin Sun announced on X that TRX will soon be landing on Solana, signaling a shift from competition to cooperation and away from being positioned as a "Solana killer.

If TRON is successfully integrated with Solana, it will enable direct exchange between TRX and SOL and utilize Solana's highly efficient network to drive zero-fee stablecoin trading and reduce user costs.

Sun predicted that TRON would overtake Solana, emphasizing that its $60 billion stablecoin supply was far better than Solana's $1 billion and that it had attracted a large number of meme-currency projects to migrate. This shows that cross-chain cooperation is becoming a market trend, and future blockchain competition will focus more on ecological complementarity rather than pure confrontation.

BNB Chain AI Factor Coin Explodes, Overtakes Solana in Trading Volume

BNB Chain is also making an effort in the field of AI pins, setting off a new round of AI pins. Recently, the Mubarak pins have recorded amazing returns, with an early trader investing in $232 and ultimately making $1.1 million in profit, with a return rate of 4,860 times, attracting the market's attention.

With the launch of Shell Launchpad, BNB Chain is attacking the AI cryptocurrency market by allowing creators to build and tokenize AI proxies without code and collaborate with Shell AI to drive ecosystem development. This strategy has already pushed BSC's trading volume to surpass Solana's, showing that market capital is gathering in the BNB ecosystem.

Shell Launchpad provides AI proxy creation, token issuance, and automatic DEX uploading, significantly lowering the threshold and making it easier to participate in the AI+Crypto field. BNB Chain is trying to dominate the new round of market boom by replicating the successful model of Solana's cryptocurrency and expanding the AI token economy.

If Shell continues to develop, I believe BNB Chain will probably become the next focus of the market, similar to the Virtuals level of cryptocurrency boom, provided that there is sufficient liquidity in the market.

Money Savers Must See: Coin Wallet Launches Zero Handling Fee Policy

In addition to seeking a competitive edge in the public chain, Binance's CEX platform launched six months of zero-fee transactions starting March 17, aiming to increase Binance Wallet adoption and enhance its ecological closure. The move reduces transaction costs and entices users to switch to Binance Wallet instead of using third-party DeFi tools such as MetaMask and Uniswap.

Zero-fee transactions will directly reduce user costs, especially in high-frequency transaction scenarios, potentially boosting Binance Wallet's market penetration. This also means that by offering this incentive, Coin hopes to attract more users to its Web3 ecosystem, thereby strengthening the liquidity and transaction volume within the BNB ecosystem.

*Although there is no longer a handling fee, there is still a gas fee.

Blackstone Just Added $218 Million in Bitcoin Holdings, Largest One-Day Inflow in Nearly Six Weeks

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has bought $218 million in Bitcoin, the largest inflow in the past six weeks.

Currently, BlackRock has approximately $11.6 trillion in assets under management and its Bitcoin position has exceeded 567,320 pieces with a total value of more than $49.6 billion, making it one of the world's largest Bitcoin holders.

BlackRock's move shows that institutional investors have long-term confidence in Bitcoin, and have chosen to add to their positions despite the recent correction in the market. This type of inflow usually helps to stabilize market sentiment and could be a key factor in supporting the price of Bitcoin. Common sense dictates that when large organizations like BlackRock are buying Bitcoin in such a big way, we can all follow suit and feel free to DCA some of the larger market cap currencies. This is because when large organizations invest in Bitcoin, they must see the potential for the price to rise before they increase their holdings.

Macro: Cryptocurrencies Shake as Risk Aversion Rises in Markets

The market is facing multiple macro risks, with U.S. tech stocks plummeting, gold breaking out to new all-time highs, and geopolitical conflicts escalating, adding to investor uncertainty. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's March 20 interest rate decision, market sentiment is conservative and the direction of capital flows will determine the short-term direction of the crypto market.

The Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, the market is worried that high interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of risky assets, technology stocks have been sold off in advance, Nvidia (Nvidia), even if the GTC conference announced the mass production of Blackwell, but still fell 3.4%. If Powell hinted at policy easing, the market's risk appetite rebounded, which may lead to the rebound of the bitcoin and the crypto market, but if the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals, capital will be further withdrawn from risky assets. However, if the Federal Reserve releases a hawkish signal, capital will be further withdrawn from risky assets.

At the same time, hedge funds have begun to influx of gold, gold price on Tuesday exceeded $3,038, a record high, the annual increase of more than 15%. Trump's government will soon implement new tariffs on April 2, coupled with the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, to promote the market demand for risk aversion. Gold and Bitcoin are both safe-haven assets, and the rise in gold price may support BTC, but if the market prefers traditional safe-haven instruments, funds may flow into gold first, weakening the crypto market's gains.

In addition, Israeli air strikes on Gaza have heightened geopolitical risks, killing more than 400 people and breaking the deadlock in the hostage talks. The escalation of the war could further drive safe-haven demand, supporting stablecoins and Bitcoin. However, against the backdrop of increased market uncertainty, cryptocurrencies could still face short-term selling pressure and even test the $68,000 to $70,000 support area.

UPDATE: Fed keeps rates unchanged, slows tapering in April, two rate cuts expected in 2025

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced at the March FOMC meeting that the benchmark interest rate will remain at 4.25%-4.5% and is expected to be cut twice in 2025 (50 bps). At the same time, the Fed slowed down its tapering from April and lowered the ceiling for monthly drawdown of U.S. public debt from US$25 billion to US$5 billion, thus releasing a signal of policy easing.

All major investment markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 up 1.11 TP3T and the NASDAQ up 1.41 TP3T. Bitcoin topped $87,446 before press time. This decision has raised liquidity expectations and further boosted cryptocurrency inflows.

The core PCE inflation rate has been revised upward from 2.5% to 2.7%, coupled with the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, the market may still be shaky in the short term. However, the rate cut is expected to be a catalyst for the bull market, and the author expects that the bull market may start in the middle to the end of the year.

Chained Data Analytics: Market Panic and Opportunity, Where Does BTC Go From Here?

U.S. investor pessimism rose to 59.24%, a five-year high. This reflects the market's concern about the Federal Reserve's policies, economic pressures and geopolitical risks. Historical data shows that extreme panic is often accompanied by market bottoms, and while the short-term sell-off may intensify, the long-term may be an opportunity to lay the groundwork. In the short term, unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates suddenly, the crypto market will continue to be affected by the tariff policy and geopolitics, and market volatility will intensify, and capital may flow to gold spot and stable currencies to hedge.

Trump's recent aggressive promotion of cryptocurrency policies, including issuing his own tokens and building up cryptocurrency reserves, has undoubtedly boosted the market's long-term confidence in the asset. Overall, short-term risks remain, but the long-term trend is optimistic, and the market may see a new round of upturn after stabilizing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator of whether an asset is overbought or oversold, with a value between 0 and 100. Typically, a value above 70 indicates that an asset is likely to be overbought and prices may retrace, while a value below 30 indicates that an asset is oversold and prices may rebound.

The current crypto market RSI heat map shows that theMost tokens are in weak or oversold territory.The market has been oversold and the potential for a rebound has increased. For long term investors, this is a good time to get in on the market in batches rather than all at once.

USDT Dominant Status (USDT.D)It is currently at a key weekly resistance level, the reaction of which will determine the next move in Bitcoin (BTC).

If USDT's market share in the crypto market were to respect resistance and trend downwards, closing below the last weekly candlestick, this would signal that the whales are putting capital back into the cryptocurrency market, an important signal for the next wave of a market upturn. At this point, the return of market capital to cryptocurrencies could trigger more buying and drive the price of Bitcoin higher.

On the other hand, if USDT.D breaks through resistance, expect more downward pressure on Bitcoin and the wider market as investors remain risk-averse due to the rising dominance of the stable currency. In such a scenario, the market may become more cautious, leading to capital outflows from cryptocurrencies, which could exacerbate BTC's downward trend.

Conclusion: Short-term market turbulence, but long-term trend remains positive

With the current market uncertainty and rising panic, the stable currency market share is at a critical position, but the RSI suggests that the market is severely oversold, providing an opportunity for long-term capital deployment. As the Trump administration continues to promote pro-encryption policies and the Federal Reserve Board is likely to cut interest rates in the future, the market is expected to see a new round of upward movement after a short-term correction.

Hong Kong Local News

On March 18, 2025, the Telegram community, which we at Monsterblockhk Media have operated for more than three years and has 2,500 members, was hacked and its accounts were forcibly closed. The incident reflected the importance of community security and prompted us to review our organization and operations. We have updated our community logo to symbolize the beginning of a new phase.

We will continue our efforts to promote local cryptocurrency education and provide an information and communication platform centered on Hong Kong culture, so that users can keep abreast of the latest market dynamics and industry trends. Recently, there have been a lot of scams on Telegram, especially "SpnzonBot". If users receive messages from unfamiliar robots claiming that their accounts have been tagged or inviting them to perform a specific operation, they should be alert and verify the identity of the other party through other channels in order to avoid being scammed. We sincerely invite old community members and new friends to join our new group to continue the discussion and exchange, and work together to build a safer and healthier community ecosystem.

Join the New Telegram Communityhttps://bit.ly/mbhktg

AI trading has changed the rules of the market. Whether it's high-frequency trading, monitoring market sentiment, or tracking the flow of large accounts, AI has become the new weapon of choice for top traders. With Bitcoin surging past $100,000, only by mastering on-chain alpha strategies can we stay ahead of the curve and profit in a highly competitive market!

We at Monsterblockhk have invited Felisa, a trading expert from Wisdomise in Taiwan, to give a free seminar at Google Meet. Felisa will share how to use AI tools to enhance trading decisions, improve win rates, and analyze the key narrative tracks and investment opportunities in the current market.

This seminar is especially designed for beginners, from basic concepts to practical applications, teaching you how to use AI to avoid pitfalls and seize market opportunities! The seminar will be held online via Google Meet on March 29th (Sat) from 9pm to 10pm. The seminar is free of charge and will be conducted in Cantonese and Mandarin, enabling more traders to easily master AI trading strategies and improve their market winning rate.

Places are limited and available while supplies last! Register now at Luma Sign up!

Disclaimer

The content of this article is for reference only, investors should exercise independent judgment, invest prudently and at their own risk, this article does not provide or attempt to persuade the audience to do trading or investment basis, the content is for sharing purposes only, and should not be regarded as investment advice.It does not represent the views and position of Monsterblockhk.All information and opinions are current as of the date of the judgment. In addition, if a judgment is rendered on aIn this siteAny content related to virtual asset trading platforms that have not yet obtained a license to operate virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, including but not limited to text introductions, pictures, offers, events, etc., are only available to users outside the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

According to the Hong Kong Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing (Amendment) Ordinance 2022, after June 1, 2023, all centralized virtual asset trading platforms operating in Hong Kong or actively promoting their services to Hong Kong investors will be licensed and regulated by the SFC, and any related unlicensed activities will be a criminal offence. For more information and details of the legislation, users may refer to the SFC website.