The prediction market exploded in popularity after the 2025 U.S. election, with Polymarket's trading volume exceeding billions of dollars a month. More and more people are discovering that there is indeed a group of "smart money" in this market that has been making steady profits for a long time - they don't rely on luck, they rely on information superiority and professional judgment to make money consistently in all kinds of event markets. The question is: you know the smart money exists, but how do you find them? Once you find them, how do you follow them?
There are already a number of Polymarket-specific chain monitoring and follow-up tools on the market, covering everything from data analysis to automated fulfillment. But what is the difference between these tools? Which ones are suitable for pure monitoring and learning, and which ones can directly help you to automate orders? More importantly, what are the hidden risks and pitfalls of using these tools that most tutorials won't tell you about?
This article will completely dismantle the four most mainstream Polymarket smart money tools -- Polymarket Analytics, Kreo, PolyGun, PolyHub -- from the function orientation, From functionality, practical operation, application scenarios to risk alerts, this article will help you build a complete monitoring and tracking framework.
What is smart money anyway?
Many people understand "smart money" as "the address to make a lot of money", but this definition can lead you into a trap in the prediction market. The nature of the Polymarket is a game of information. Behind every prediction market is a specific reality - it could be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, a movie's box office performance, or even the weather in a particular city. In this market, the real smart money is not in the people with the best trading skills, but in the participants who have an information advantage in specific verticals.
What does this mean? An address that has been profitable in the political market for a long time could fail completely in the sports market. A PNL account with beautiful numbers might just be the lucky one who bets on the right direction on one or two big events.
The three most common data traps
First, the bias of the PNL computational dimension. The calculation of PNL on Polymarket is not standardized. Some platforms calculate realized profits, others include unrealized float of positions. If you filter addresses in the wrong dimension, the deviation can be several times. An address that appears to have made $100,000 may actually have only $20,000 to $30,000 in realized profit.
Second, the interference of arbitrage robots. Polymarket has a large number of automated arbitrage robots that trade very frequently and have good win rates, but their strategy is to take advantage of small price differentials in the market to engage in risk-free arbitrage, which is not the same thing as "judging the direction of events" that you want to learn. Hubble's research data shows that about 3.7% users on Polymarket contributed 37.44% in trading volume, most of these accounts are very short position holders with highly concentrated trading behavior. Hubble's research data shows that about 3.7% of users on the Polymarket contribute 37.441T of trading volume, and most of these accounts are robots with very short positions and highly concentrated trading behavior. If you follow this type of address, you'll only see your profits eaten up by fees and slippage.
Thirdly, a high winning rate does not mean high expectations. A winning address of 85% looks impressive, but if it only enters when the outcome of an event is almost certain (e.g. it buys only when the odds are already above 90%), then its profit per trade is extremely low, and once it steps on that 15% losing trade, the loss will be far more than the sum of the profits it had previously made.
Four Dimensions of Selecting Really Smart Money
Based on the above pitfalls, you need to build your own filtering framework before using any tools:
Winning percentage must be looked at in conjunction with PNL. Win rates alone are meaningless. An address with a winning percentage of 60% that earns an average of $500 per stroke is far more valuable than an address with a winning percentage of 80% that earns an average of $20 per stroke.
The sample size should be large enough. It is recommended that addresses covering at least 300 independent markets are worth tracking. The sample size is so small that you can't tell if it's strength or luck. Take the well-known address BeefSlayer, for example, which participates in 1,360 independent markets, with a cumulative total of 2,500 trades, a net profit of $41,367, a winning percentage of 61.2%, and an average bet of $196 per trade - this kind of decentralized and consistent performance is a true smart money characteristic.
Observe the position cycle. A long term position means that the address has its own judgment of events rather than chasing short term price fluctuations. Addresses that move in and out frequently are more likely to be robots or speculators.
The profit structure should be decentralized. If an address 80% profit comes from one or two trades, it is more like good luck than systematic profit. Real smart money should have consistent positive returns across multiple markets and timeframes.
Tool 1: Polymarket Analytics - Infrastructure for Smart Money Screening
If you can only use one tool, choose this one.
Polymarket Analytics is the most comprehensive third-party data analytics platform in the prediction market space, created by data engineers Primo Data, and has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal and CoinDesk, and is officially supported by Polymarket. The platform currently covers over 2.3 million traders, 180,000 markets, and nearly 120 million positions.
Polymarket Analytics' Trader Leaderboard is updated every five minutes, and you can sort all addresses by dimensions such as PNL, win rate, volume, and more. What's more, you can view the full historical performance of any address, including PNL by category - politics, sports, cryptocurrencies, entertainment and more.
The value of this feature is that it allows you to determine whether an address is "well-rounded" or "biased" in its profitability. If an address makes a lot of money in the political market but loses money in all other categories, you know it makes sense to follow it only on politically relevant events.
How does it work?
The first step is to go to the Trader Ranking page and perform an initial filter using the "Number of Markets" to filter out addresses with less than 300 participating markets.
The second step is to sort by PNL to identify the addresses that have been steadily profitable for a long period of time.
Step 3: Tap into an individual address to see its profit structure - whether profits are spread across multiple markets or concentrated in a few transactions.
Step 4: Observe its recent transaction activity to confirm that the address is still active.
Polymarket Analytics is a pure analytics tool, it does not provide order execution. Its value is to help you "pick the right people", not to help you "follow the orders". You need to use other execution tools to complete the second half of the follow up process. Also note that Polymarket Analytics has been acquired and integrated by PolyGun, but the analytics platform itself is still independent and free to use.
Tool 2: Kreo - the amphibious platform for monitoring and following orders
If Polymarket Analytics helps you find smart money, Kreo is the next step in helping you keep an eye on them and decide whether to follow them.
Kreo is an unmanaged trading tool that supports both the Polymarket and Kalshi Forecast Markets, and is available both as a web-based and Telegram-enabled robot. Its core feature is the integration of monitoring and execution on the same platform.
Core Function 1: Smart Wallet Monitoring
Once you set up a target address, Kreo monitors activity on that address's chain 24/7. As soon as an order is placed by the target address, you'll receive an instant Telegram notification with the market, direction, amount and current price of the trade. This allows you to be the first to know what the smart money is doing, and then make your own decision about whether to follow it.
This "subjective call" model is the article's most recommended use. When you receive a notification, you need to ask yourself three questions: Is the trade news-driven (meaning you may be late to the party), or is it an early ambush (meaning you may have an informational advantage)? What is the profit margin on the current spread? What percentage of the address's total position does this trade represent (the higher the percentage, the greater the confidence)?
Core Function 2: Auto Follow-Up
If you choose the automatic mode, Kreo will copy the position proportionally to your account the moment the target address is traded. The platform supports the setting of daily loss limits and stop-loss rules, which is a relatively well-developed risk-control mechanism among all order-following tools.
Kreo also has a built-in AI matching feature that can recommend suitable followers based on your risk appetite and the types of markets you're interested in. In addition, its "Unusual Transactions" module flags suspicious large trades in the chain, helping you to spot potential insider wallet movements in advance.
Core Function 3: Cross-Platform Coverage
Kreo supports both Polymarket and Kalshi, which is a unique advantage in the current ecosystem of tools. If you are trading in two forecast markets at the same time, Kreo allows you to cover both sides of the smart money with the same monitoring system.
Security Kreo uses a non-custodial architecture, Privy technology and secure enclaves to ensure that users are always in control of their private keys and funds. Your funds do not leave your wallet, the tool simply executes trade orders on your behalf.
Tool 3: PolyGun - Telegram Native One-Click Follow-Up Robot
PolyGun's positioning is more straightforward - it's a Telegram trading bot designed specifically for Polymarket, with a focus on fast execution and frictionless operation.
Core Functions: Real-time Trading and Order Following
Send a /start command to @polygunsniperbot in Telegram and an unmanaged wallet will be automatically generated for you. You can then buy and sell any position on the Polymarket directly from the chat interface, without having to switch to a browser or other application.
PolyGun supports automatic cross-chain replenishment from Polygon, Solana, Ethereum and BNB chains, which lowers the threshold of fund dispatching. As for the follow up function, all you need to do is to enter the target address and the robot will copy the transaction operation of that address instantly.
Integration with Polymarket Analytics
With the acquisition of Polymarket Analytics, PolyGun has integrated data analytics capabilities directly into the trading process. This means that you can complete the complete process of "analyzing address performance → selecting followers → automatically executing trades" in the same Telegram interface, without the need to switch between multiple platforms.
The platform charges a handling fee of 1% for each buy and sell trade. This may not seem like a high cost, but if you are trading against high frequency traders, the accumulated fees will quickly erode profits. It is recommended that you prioritize trading with addresses that have a low trading frequency but a high degree of accuracy so that you can maximize your profits while controlling your costs.
PolyGun is best suited for users who are accustomed to operating on their phones and prefer the Telegram ecosystem. Its advantage lies in its fast execution speed and low threshold of operation, as it takes only a few seconds from finding an opportunity to placing an order. However, because it is so easy to use, it is also more likely to have the problem of impulsive trading - following a notification without thinking it through.
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Tool 4: PolyHub (Hubble) - AI-driven smart money recognition engine
PolyHub is a dedicated Polymarket followers platform from the Hubble team, whose core differentiation lies in the use of AI and data modeling to solve the fundamental problem of "how to find the real smart money".
Core Functions: Intelligent Filtering and Denoising
As mentioned earlier, there are a lot of robotic trades on the Polymarket that can seriously interfere with your judgment of smart money, and PolyHub does this by first using algorithms to identify and filter out robotic activity and noisy trades with negative expectations, ensuring that you only see human traders who are truly and consistently profitable.
Hubble's research team tracked the trading data of over 90,000 wallets and found that many of the "top traders" on the Polymarket charts are actually the product of survivor bias - they ranked high because they bet on the right direction on a handful of big events, rather than having systematic judgment. PolyHub filters out these false signals through multi-dimensional risk assessment to help you find the real stable smart money.
The actual operation process
Users can filter according to the event categories they are familiar with, and then filter out the smart money addresses that are worth following through indicators such as PNL, ROI, trading frequency in the last month, and time rating. After selecting an address, set the trigger conditions for auto-following and the system will automatically execute for you when the target address is traded.
PolyHub also adopts a non-custodial structure, where funds remain in the user's own wallet, and all transaction records are completely transparent and traceable.
In addition, PolyHub's AI recommendation feature can help newbies quickly find the right addresses to follow, but it's also important to note that any AI model is based on the analysis of historical data, and good performance in the past doesn't mean it will continue to be profitable in the future. It is advisable to use AI recommendations as a starting point for screening rather than as a final decision. Taking the time to study the trading logic and market performance of the recommended addresses to build independent judgment is the key to long-term stable profits.
How to choose these four tools? How to mix and match?
After understanding the features of each tool, the key question is:Which one should you use?
The answer depends on your purpose and level of experience. If you're in a pure research phase and just want to see what the smart money is doing, start with Polymarket Analytics, which is free, has the most comprehensive data, and doesn't involve any money manipulation. Spending two to three weeks studying the addresses on the charts and understanding their trading patterns and market selection logic is much more valuable than just following them.
Kreo's Telegram monitoring feature is perfect if you want to monitor a specific address and decide for yourself whether or not to follow up. It lets you know what the target address is doing in real time, but you make the final decision to place the order. This is the riskiest way to follow up.
If you've already built your own smart money address database and want to automate it, PolyGun and PolyHub both fit the bill - PolyGun for its ease of use and Telegram-native experience, and PolyHub for its smart filtering and denoising capabilities.
Suggested combination: use Polymarket Analytics for initial screening → monitor your selected addresses with Kreo and follow them manually for a period of time → after verifying that the strategy is working, consider automating the execution with PolyGun or PolyHub. This step-by-step process keeps you in control of your risk at every stage.
The Three Execution Pitfalls of Autofollowing
Regardless of which tool you use, there are three structural problems with autofollowing that are rarely mentioned in any tool tutorials.
The volume of capital is not equal:The smart money may have opened a position with $10,000 and you only have $500. It may seem like all you need to do is scale down, but in practice, small orders are often difficult to fill or have too much slippage in less liquid markets. You may have set up a follow-on order, but the actual price of the trade is several percentage points away from the smart money entry price, and your profit margins are instantly squeezed.
Cost of time delay:There is an unavoidable time lag between smart money orders being placed, your followers detecting the trade in the chain, and your order being executed. In a fast-moving market, a delay of a few minutes can mean that the price has moved significantly. Especially when a smart money address is followed by a large number of people, the price at which the subsequent followers trade will gradually deteriorate. That's why "subjective followers" are sometimes more effective than automatic followers - instead of blindly trading at any price, you can assess whether there's still enough profit margin at the current price when you're notified.
Blind spot for exit synchronization:Most order followers do a good job on the "entry" side of the market, but they often have a blind spot on the "exit" side. When the smart money clears its position, your instrument may not be able to execute the sale at the same time, or your exit order may be delayed due to a lack of liquidity. The result is that the smart money is already in your pocket, but you're still trapped in your position, ultimately turning it from a profit to a loss.
The solution is: when setting up automatic order following, make sure to set up both Stop Loss and Take Profit rules (Kreo provides a better option in this regard). Don't rely solely on the exit mechanism of the trailing tool, and get into the habit of checking your positions regularly.
For a hands-on tutorial on how Polymarket works, check out our previous article on the subject.What is the Polymarket, the most promising forecast market for 2026? An all-inclusive guide from introductory tutorials to advanced strategies》。
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Can't miss the advanced gameplay!
With the frequency of global events in 2026, following the news is no longer enough to stay ahead of the curve. You must capitalize on community and advanced resources to turn predictions into sustained high returns, and by missing out on this wave of community alpha, you may never catch up with the smart money that's already reaping the benefits of their insider wallets!
If you're looking to move up from probability games to on-chain insider analysis, we recommend following up with another one of our super popular practical guides!The latest Polymarket tutorials｜How to find out the insiders and achieve a high win rate! How to do Chain Analysis?
This article provides real-world examples of how to target high-volume, low-probability betting accounts, track wallet interaction patterns, and verify insider behavior through tools like Arkham and Nansen, allowing you to build a systematic strategy for following your smart money!
Our Telegram Community Prediction Market is a special forum where members share daily updates on market opportunities and events to help you avoid blind betting and quickly adjust your strategy, join us now!
Following a list is a start, understanding the logic is a step up!
The four tools described in this article can help you with the technical aspects of "finding the smart money" and "keeping up with the smart money," but they are no substitute for your judgment.
Over the long term, the most valuable thing is not to replicate a position at a particular address, but to understand why it is at that point in time, at that price, in that market. When you begin to be able to make these kinds of judgments on your own, you no longer need to follow anyone.
It is advisable to get into the habit of keeping records while using the tool: every time you receive a trade notification from Smart Money, write down your own judgment first - what do you think is the logic of this trade? Will you follow it? Why? Then look back after the event to see how your judgment differed from the smart money's actual performance.
This process is more valuable than the order itself. Because the money earned from following orders is essentially a borrowed perception; while the judgmental framework established through observation and reflection is truly your ability.
The beauty of prediction markets is that they turn vague opinions into quantifiable bets. And the real value of smart money tools isn't that they let you hitch a ride on someone else's coattails, but that they let you see how those smarter than you think - and then make your own judgments on your own terms.
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