資金轉向、價格回調、情緒降溫：DCA時機又來了

This week, the crypto market entered a technical correction phase. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw one-day net outflows hit a new high for the month, leveraged positions approached $700 million, and the market's risk appetite clearly cooled as sentiment indexes receded sharply from "greedy" to "neutral". If you followed our advice to take profits in the first two weeks, you are now in a very comfortable position to calmly observe and respond, and even begin to think about a low DCA repositioning strategy. Capital on the chain continues to shift from the high volatility zone to the core of the main chain, and TVL has slipped slightly but liquidity has not been lost, reflecting that this shock is not a crash, but a healthy rhythmic correction. Next, we will break down the key signals in this shock wave to grasp the golden window for the next round of layouts.

ETF Funding Reverses Downward, Market Enters a Wait-and-See Mode

According to SoSoValue, as of May 30th, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a one-day net outflow of US$$616 million, the largest one-day net outflow of the week, ending the consecutive days of net inflows. In the past seven days, the ETF maintained positive inflows on several trading days, especially on May 22 when the inflow was as high as US$$900 million, driving the total asset size to exceed US$$130 billion for a while, but it turned into a sharp outflow for two consecutive days from May 29 onwards, and the total asset value fell back to US$$126.15 billion on May 30 onwards.

This reflects a significant turnaround in market risk appetite in the short term, and net inflows into ETFs, which are the main vehicle for institutional capital, directly reflect changes in capital sentiment. As the price of Bitcoin retreated from its highs to $104,640.5, the outflow of funds may indicate that the market is skeptical of the short-term price rally and has entered a wait-and-see or profit-taking phase. Despite the short-term weakness, the stable net inflows in the past few days also indicate that long-term capital has not been withdrawn completely, and the overall asset level of ETFs is still at a historically high level. If the macro negative becomes clearer and prices stabilize, capital is expected to re-enter the market.

Over-heated leverage triggers liquidation wave, technical correction releases room for re-entry

According to Coinglass data, a total of 267,965 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total of $$688 million, of which long positions accounted for the majority, amounting to $$611 million, while short positions amounted to $$77.36 million. BTC and ETH were in the forefront of the scale of the bursting of the positions, amounting to $153 million and $125 million in BTC and ETH, respectively. BTC and ETH had the largest outages, reaching $153 million and $125 million respectively, indicating that the highly leveraged configuration of mainstream assets is facing significant deleveraging pressure. The largest single burst occurred in OKX's BTC-USDT contract, amounting to $12.25 million in $.

This wave of liquidation was not an accident, but the result of a technical adjustment after two consecutive weeks of gains. This round of liquidation has effectively released short-term risk, as rapid capital appreciation is often accompanied by over-leveraging and short-term sentiment buildup. It is worth noting that despite the sharp liquidity blowout, the market as a whole did not experience liquidity depletion and the mainstream asset structure stabilized, suggesting that this round of retracement is more of a normal reshuffle in a strong market.

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Sentiment drop to validate profitable strategy, time to reposition on the low side.

According to CMC data, the Cryptocurrency Greed Index has fallen from last week's high of 67 (Greedy) to 55 (Neutral) as of the end of this week, ending a two-week streak of strong sentiment gains. This change is highly synchronized with the decline in Bitcoin prices and echoes our "take profit" reminder from last week. As seen in the chart, the FOMO fervor since mid-May is cooling off and sentiment is turning to a wait-and-see approach, with volatility on the rise.

This transition from 'greed' to 'neutrality' reflects the fact that short-term capital is retreating from profit-taking, while at the same time suppressing over-leveraging and excessive sentiment. Although prices have fallen, overall sentiment has not turned to 'fear', suggesting that the market has not yet entered a full retreat phase and is instead gradually releasing opportunities to add to positions. For investors who have already pocketed their profits in the previous two weeks, they may now consider re-positioning on the low side and transferring part of their profits to medium- and long-term positions in batches.

Sentiment retreat does not mean trend reversal, but a typical corrective rhythm in a bull market. When sentiment cools off, leverage decreases, and prices pull back, it is a good time to optimize costs and strengthen position allocation, and a DCA strategy enters the market at this time to avoid high short-term risks and build momentum for the next round of the market.

Ether Continues to Suck Money, Arbitrum Suffers Largest Net Outflows

According to Artemis data, this week's chain capital continues to be concentrated on the top main chains. Ether again recorded an inflow of more than $1 billion, with a net inflow of about $500 million, making it the most popular chain, reflecting the tendency of capital to return to safe and stable main chains after high volatility, while Base and Bitcoin also performed well, with a net inflow of more than $200 million and nearly $100 million, respectively, indicating that the market's preference for the mainstream new public chains and digital gold assets continues. The market's preference for mainstream new public chains and digital gold assets continues.

In contrast, Arbitrum was the most heavily withdrawn chain of the week with a net outflow of more than $400 million on an outflow of more than $600 million, while Unichain and OP Mainnet had net outflows of about $100 million and $80 million, respectively, suggesting that the market is pulling back from recent speculative hotspots and that some funds are choosing to take profits. Overall, capital flows are retreating from high-risk ecologies and re-locating to high-confidence infrastructure and assets with long-term value-storage capabilities. Such a liquidity structure means the market is entering a cooling period, and for investors who have realized profits in the past two weeks, it is a good time to gradually cover their positions in DCA on the low side.

Arbitrum Capital Flight Continues as Solana Acts as a Chain Funding Springboard

According to deBridge, Arbitrum continued to be the main capital export chain this week, with a large amount of capital flowing to Ethereum and Base via deBridge, indicating that profit-taking sentiment is still strong in the market and that capital is being withdrawn from the high volatility ecosystem. At the same time, Solana once again demonstrated its hub status, playing the role of transit and reception of multiple capital flows, especially to Ethereum, Arbitrum and Base, highlighting its interoperability as a highly efficient chain.

Base continues to be a strong money drawer, receiving multi-directional funding from Solana, Arbitrum and Ethereum, reflecting its application tier and development activity, while Ethereum also dominates on the receiving end, reinforcing its position as a store of value and liquidity haven, but at the same time is the target of outflows from most of the chains, performing the dual role of a "core asset exchange center" and "core asset exchange center". Ethereum also dominates on the receiving end, reinforcing its position as a store of value and a liquidity haven, but is also the recipient of outflows from the majority of the chain, demonstrating its dual role as a "core asset exchange".

Overall, this week saw a clear structural shift in chain flows: capital is moving from high beta ecologies back to the main chain and multichain hotspots, with cross-chain hubs such as Solana and Base completing the rapid rotation. This pattern reflects that investors are redeploying their positions after taking large profits over the past two weeks, and are making solid preparations to re-enter the market in the medium term.

TVL falls 2.75% as DeFi enters a period of oscillatory consolidation

According to the latest data from DeFiLlama, as of the end of this week, the total locked position (TVL) of decentralized finance (DeFi) was reported at $112.646B, a decrease of -2.75% in 24 hours, showing the phenomenon of capital return and short-term profit-taking. Compared to the uptrend of the past two weeks, the overall pattern of consolidation this week, the TVL obviously dropped from the high point, reflecting that investors are turning to wait and see. In addition, the trading volume of DEX (decentralized exchange) in the past 24 hours was $22.51B, while the trading volume of Perps reached $15.813B, indicating that despite the decline in the total lock-up volume, the trading activity on the chain still maintained a certain degree of enthusiasm.

The total stable money market capitalization (TVL) remained at a relatively high level of $247.582B, reflecting the fact that capital has not been withdrawn significantly, but rather shifted to defensive and wait-and-see allocations.The decline in TVL accompanied by the high volume of trades suggests that the market has not entered a full-scale withdrawal, but rather, it is in the consolidation stage of "cashing out profits" and "waiting for capital". Especially after the strong rebound in the first two weeks, it is normal for some investors to lock in their profits. The stable currency remains at a high level, retaining plenty of firepower for the rebound.

Markets shake out and consolidate, mainstream currencies fall in popularity to provide opportunities for staged deployments

This week, the crypto market ended a two-week uptrend and entered a technical correction phase, with most mainstream currencies experiencing double-digit losses, and capital turning to a wait-and-see attitude, showing a natural correction after profit-taking. Looking at the weekly performance of Crypto Bubbles, FLOKI (-21.3%), RENDER (-20.8%), XMR (-18.0%), and BONK (-25.4%) have all fallen sharply, reflecting that the market's risk appetite has cooled off in the short term, and that capital has opted to withdraw from highly resilient targets for now.

Analyzing this phenomenon, it can be seen that the market has entered a technical correction after two weeks of strong rebound, which is a healthy structural consolidation. Instead of a complete retreat, there is a tendency for capital flows to move into stable currencies and large agreements to wait and see, implying that market sentiment has not turned negative, but rather is retaining flexibility for the next round of markets. Such an oscillator pattern provides a favorable opportunity for medium-term investors to strategically deploy DCA based on the profits of the past two weeks.

The new pinnacle of "LOUD", the LOUD mechanism triggers a wave of experiments on the attention economy.

Kaito's LOUD incubation program is a pure experiment in the attention economy, creating a phenomenal $100,000 weekly income for content creators through quantified voice volume and $SOL profit incentives. According to the official data, the top 25 Yappers in a given week earned a total of 1,848 SOLs, an average of about $13,000 per person. Folius Ventures estimates that if the FDV is $25 million and the daily trading volume reaches 50%, the average profit of the top 25 creators in a single week could reach $100,000, which is in line with the actual data and shows that short-term returns are extremely high.

LOUD is not empowered, and rewards are given out at $SOL, effectively cutting the link between emotions and token prices, creating a "pure sound volume gaming" field, and encouraging creators to frantically generate heat to earn profits. Its Yapper scoring system (based on speech frequency, Smart Followers, and content quality) has been introduced into the game structure, and if the shouting orders resonate, a positive flywheel will be formed, while the opposite is feared to be a heat exhaustion and resource mismatch. It is Kaito's ultimate weapon against competitors such as Spark and Cookie. With the pre-sale approaching, LOUD may trigger the next wave of the "sweet and sour" economy and become the centerpiece of InfoFi's narrative.

Physical toys off the shelves triggered a frenzy in the currency circle: LABUBU coins skyrocketed by nearly 6,000 times

While the purely attention-based economy is giving rise to breakout creators, the physical world's cultural craze is also quietly driving the flow of capital along the chain: Labubu dolls have taken the trend world by storm, triggering a capital frenzy that is spreading from physical commodities to the mini-currency market.

According to DEX Screener, the coin was issued by the platform Pump.fun in October 2024 and had an initial market capitalization of around $10 million before quickly falling back to less than a million for a long time. Recently, the coin's price soared to $49.16 million as the Labubu dolls went viral, fueled by TikTok and celebrity wearables, and has now retreated to about $41.55 million.

The Labubu phenomenon highlights the convergence of Web2 consumer culture and Web3 value transfer. When the supply of physical commodities is limited, investors and fans begin to turn their attention to on-chain assets, creating an alternative arena of sentiment and value. This pattern of offline phenomena driving the upsurge of on-chain assets is a sign that the mini-coin market is shifting from "pure speculation" to "cultural identity-driven". As LadyETH said, "Owning Labubu is not enough, I also bought $LABUBU."

JD Vance declares to the world, "Crypto is coming to the White House."

As the culture of fandom resonates with the assets on the chain, the crypto market is moving from the playground to a broader narrative - even into the heart of politics - and Vice President JD Vance's words officially announce that crypto will be coming to the White House. Vice President JD Vance said at this week's Bitcoin 2025 conference that "cryptocurrency finally has an ally in the White House," a direct indication that Trump and the White House will embrace the crypto industry with policies and resources, becoming the first U.S. administration to fully support cryptocurrency, and Vance pointed out that Trump has already "embraced" crypto, and will be pushing to deregulate it and promote its mainstreaming.

He also emphasized that "under the President's leadership, cryptocurrency finally has a White House ally," and mentioned that he owns between $250,000 and $500,000 worth of Bitcoin. During his speech, Vance called on Congress to pass the GENIUS Act, which would create a regulatory framework for stable currencies and be "a force multiplier for the U.S. economy". The remarks underscore the Republican Party's focus on the crypto industry and its attempts to deepen ties with the Web3 community. The U.S. is clearly using decentralized finance as political capital to attract young investors and free market advocates. While Vance's statement lacks specific policy details, the message is clear: the Republican Party sees crypto as a tool to fight traditional finance and inflation, and a "new weapon" for voter mobilization.

Musk Faces Off Pavel: Telegram's 'Partnership' With xAI Wasn't Signed At All

In the midst of all the political good news, the world of Web3 has been hit with an embarrassing story, as the "Rashomon" between Telegram and Elon Musk's xAI has unexpectedly hit the top of the conversation, with Telegram CEO Pavel Durov announcing that the two companies have agreed to a $300 million partnership to integrate Grok's models into the platform, only to be denied by Musk himself, who said "there is no contract. However, Musk himself denied it, saying that "there is no contract at all".

On May 28th, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov announced on the X platform that Telegram would be integrating xAI's language model, Grok, this summer, calling it a "signed one-year partnership" and mentioning that Telegram would receive $300 million in cash and shares from xAI, as well as a 50% subscription to the revenue share. However, Elon Musk himself immediately left a comment at the bottom of the post: "No deal has been signed", publicly denying that the partnership had been formalized, and Durov later amended his statement, admitting that "it's just an agreement in principle, and the formal paperwork hasn't been finalized yet".

This awkward communication revealed a different understanding of the agreement process amongst Web3 leaders, and Durov's proactive release gave the market the false impression that the partnership was finalized, challenging not only his credibility, but also reflecting the risk of "talk first, sign later" in the Web3 space. musk's immediate rebuttal demonstrated his strong demand for accuracy in branding and business partnerships, refusing to allow xAI to be drawn into premature uncertainty. Musk's immediate rebuttal also demonstrated his high regard for the accuracy of brand and business partnerships, and his refusal to allow xAI to be dragged into premature uncertainty.

Cetus Hacking Case Hits Sui, $ $260 Million to be Compensated in Full

At a time when trust in the Web3 space is being tested, Sui Ecology has demonstrated its crisis management maturity and resilience through its actions. In the face of the hacking of Cetus, which resulted in the loss of more than US$260 million, Sui Foundation and the community quickly responded by not only freezing most of the stolen assets, but also passing a full compensation proposal under community governance to ensure that all the victims walked away with no losses.

As mentioned in last week's Weekly Report, the hack of the leading Sui chain, DEX Cetus, resulted in a loss of $$260 million, but after the community passed a recovery proposal, the victimized users will receive full refunds, and the Sui Foundation immediately set aside $10 million in security funds for audits, white hat bounties, and official validation.

This incident is the biggest security disaster for Sui Ecology, not only hitting the prices of many tokens (e.g. HIPPO, LOFI plummeted by more than 75%), but also challenging the "credibility" of the emerging chain. However, the rapid mobilization and community voting mechanism demonstrated the resilience of Sui Ecology in the face of the crisis. The security mechanism and community governance will be the key to the future of public chains.

Wynn's Contract Trading Alert: $85.29 Million in Zero

However, while DeFi is being hacked and CEX's traditional platform is being questioned, another real-life lesson in trading risk is being learned. Highly leveraged contract trader James Wynn, who had amassed a surplus of more than $85 million in just two weeks, ended up in the red due to greed and a lack of stop loss discipline. According to EmberCN, Wynn had amassed $85.29 million in profits in two weeks, including $42.08 million in BTC and PEPE arbitrage on May 24th. However, after failing to stop his profits in time and continuing to bet on highly volatile assets such as ETH, SUI, and fiat currencies, all of his profits were eventually wiped out.

Wynn's experience was not a technical error, but a combination of "greed" and "lax risk control. He had already made enough money through contract trading to change his fate, but chose to continue betting on high-risk targets. On May 23rd, ETH failed to break above $3,800 and showed RSI divergence, coupled with a drop in activity on the large account chain, it was clear that a reversal signal had been issued. However, he didn't stop, resulting in his original profit being lost.

In today's highly leveraged and institutionalized market, if traders do not have risk control and take-profit discipline, it is very easy to lose everything due to the mentality of "make another profit" Wynn's story is a mirror: the money that can allow you to retire should not be put in a position that allows you to blow up your position. When profits are enough to change your life, it's time to get out. Otherwise, the market will always teach you a lesson the moment you get greedy.

X Money Tests Online, Mask Creates a New Order for Financial Communities

At the same time, Musk quietly launched the X Money test, injecting a new narrative into community finance, switching from a story of speculation and bursts to the possibility of platform-level reinvention. Musk has officially confirmed that its payments and banking app, X Money, is in internal testing and is expected to be fully online by 2025. According to Cointelegraph, X has already received 41 gold streaming licenses across the U.S., paving the way for full-scale operations.

X Money wasn't just an impulse - the idea took shape when Musk acquired Twitter for $44 billion in 2022, a move he called a "gas pedal" for building the X App. With the brand name change and DOGE leadership role revealed in 2023, X has evolved from social media to multimedia, payments and financial integration. It is worth noting that code leaks and official criticisms have accompanied X, suggesting both political and regulatory risks.

While Musk has yet to say whether it will integrate cryptocurrencies, its past support for Bitcoin and DogCoin on X on several occasions, coupled with X Money's architectural and distributed technology potential, make it a great place to watch for the future of fintech and crypto-payments convergence. This test may not only be about the success of an app, but also about the blurring of the lines between Web2 and Web3.

Coin Banquet Turns Into Disaster? Trump's Currency Banquet Reveals Political Shift Toward 'Decentralized Ideals'

Before the platform test was over, another high-profile show symbolizing the politicization of crypto - Trump's $TRUMP Money Black Tie Dinner - saw the original ideal of decentralized affirmative action gradually evolve into a bargaining chip and symbol for the power elite. The event, though grand, was more of a symbolic turning point: a declaration that cryptocurrencies are being transformed from their cyberpunk beginnings into a new vehicle for political capital.

From the original intent of blockchain transparency to the $148 million threshold required for coin holders to be seated at the former president's dinner, the event reflects the fact that cryptoassets have become an extended instrument of power and discourse. During the event, Trump stayed for only 23 minutes without interacting with coin holders. The presence of controversial figures such as Sun Yuchen also made the dinner a regulatory bust for lawmakers. Congress quickly bounced back by proposing a new bill that would prohibit the president and top officials from profiting from crypto assets while in office, even affecting the progress of the GENIUS Stabilized Currency Act, which had originally gained bipartisan consensus.

However, this controversy is not a single event, but rather represents a deeper trend: cryptocurrencies are being transformed from technological experiments into part of the mainstream power structure, and on the night of the event, the price of the currency fell by 161 TP3T. On the night of the event, the price of the cryptocurrency plummeted by 161 TP3 T. At a time when major US banks have begun to discuss partnering with the government to issue "digital dollars," Trump's banquet instead signaled a closer, more institutionalized marriage between politics and crypto in the future - no longer an idealist's blockchain, perhaps, but a realistic ticket to the mainstream. Ticket to Reality.

Taiwan Welcomes World Network, Will Real-Life Authentication Technology Become the New Defense for Identity in the Age of AI?

In the midst of the debate between decentralization and centralization, World Network has made a strong debut with its biometric authentication technology to provide a line of defense for digital authenticity and trust mechanisms in the age of AI. According to Tools for Humanity's announcement, three Orb verification points have been set up in Taipei City for the public to register their World IDs for free and receive a free drop.

The move comes as World Network promotes its privacy-first, real-life authentication framework globally and emphasizes its potential for use in the AI-driven online ecosystem. World ID provides a decentralized and anonymous alternative to the current rampant Internet fraud, which will reach NT$239.5 billion in Taiwan by 2024, mostly identity theft and impersonation. Against the backdrop of high AI penetration and rising Internet usage, this type of technology not only meets the needs of the times, but is also expected to promote the upgrading of digital identity infrastructure.

With the accelerated penetration of AI in our daily lives, the "authenticity" of digital identities will become a basic competency in the new state of affairs, and the debut of World Network is not only a technological layout, but also a new tool for governments and enterprises to build a credible digital society. This is a timely move for the local digital economy, which will soon exceed 1 trillion dollars in size.

Macro News

Sentiment collapses before tariffs: Trump's steel and aluminum tax hike triggers market panic

U.S. President Donald Trump accused China of violating an earlier bilateral tax cut agreement, and immediately announced that the global steel and aluminum tariffs would be doubled from 25% to 50%, saying that China was "in complete violation of the agreement", which not only restarted the trade tension between China and the U.S., but also added uncertainty to the global market. It was reported that Trump suddenly announced the tax hike at a campaign event in Pennsylvania, emphasizing that he would further "protect the U.S. steel industry". At the same time, the U.S. criticized China for failing to issue rare earth export licenses as agreed and for restricting the export of key technologies. Despite China's continued communication and criticism of the U.S. for its "discriminatory restrictive measures," the talks have apparently reached an impasse.

The short-lived 90-day "tariff truce" between the US and China had led to a short-term rally, but the current failure to deliver on its promises has highlighted the high sensitivity of policy risk to asset prices. In addition, the recent US court ruling that Trump's past global tariffs may be illegal has added uncertainty to the legality of the policy, further heightening market fears. Once global capital risk appetite shifts, capital will tend to flow out of highly volatile assets, with crypto assets being the first to bear the brunt. Macro policy volatility and international order instability are gradually eroding investors' tolerance for risky assets, highlighting the far-reaching impact of macro news on the cryptocurrency market. As the recent price correction has shown, the chain market, although independent of the fiat currency system, is not immune to the pull of real economic sentiment.

124 Executive Orders Shock the System, Unprecedented Pressure on Separation of Powers

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been in office for less than a year, and has already become one of the most destructive presidents in history by rapidly advancing his agenda with a plethora of executive orders. According to the U.S. Congress, as of mid-April 2025, he had signed 124 executive orders, far exceeding the number of laws passed during the same period, showing his preference for bypassing Congress through administrative means. According to scholar Stephen Clear, the fact that executive orders do not require congressional approval has become Trump's main tool for expanding his power, but this practice has led to a number of lawsuits from Democratic lawmakers.

The power of the Supreme Court to overturn executive orders that have no basis in law or are unconstitutional is a manifestation of the importance of the separation of powers and the checks and balances in the U.S. Constitution. However, since both houses of Congress are controlled by the Republican Party and the majority of the opposition party is weak, the effect of supervision on him is limited, and Congress has not been able to effectively block his abusive use of executive orders, which has led to a serious challenge to the boundaries of power.

Monetary Strategy in the Shadow of Tariffs: Fed Cautions Against Expanding Inflation Risks

Fed official Kashkari warned that the impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation is not a short-term phenomenon and that the Fed should not rush to cut interest rates, reflecting the high degree of uncertainty facing current monetary policy. Kashkari pointed out at the Tokyo conference on May 27 that the comprehensive tariff measures implemented by the White House are gradually transmitted to the end price, inflationary pressure is difficult to subside quickly. He emphasized: "These arguments support the position of maintaining the current policy rate," and that "negotiations may take months or even years," showing his concern about the long-term nature of the trade situation.

Despite market bets that the Fed will initiate a rate cut as soon as September, Kashkari explicitly advocated "more time for more information," underscoring his skepticism of over-reliance on models such as Taylor's rule. In his view, the current policy rate is only "mildly restrictive", and he called for policymaking to be based on flexible judgment rather than mechanical reliance on rules. It is worth noting that Kashkari was known as a dove in the past, but now his attitude has become more cautious, highlighting that the persistence of inflationary pressures is forcing the Fed to reweigh the risks.

Chained Data Analysis:

Short-term holders realize a ten-fold increase in profits, sentiment turns positive and bullish momentum builds quickly

According to Glassnode data, after Bitcoin's recent strong breakout above the STH cost basis of $93,000, the daily realized profit of short-term holders surged rapidly and reached a high of $747 million per day, with the cumulative realized profit over the past 30 days reaching $11.4 billion, a nearly ten-fold increase compared to the $1.2 billion in the previous cycle. This is a nearly tenfold increase from the previous cycle's $1.2 billion, one of the most dramatic sentiment reversals in history.

This phenomenon not only reflects that the recent bottoming buyers have turned a substantial profit, but also reveals that short-term capital began to actively participate in profit-taking, in an attempt to capture the upward momentum of the market. A large amount of capital has turned from losses to profits, which helps to boost market confidence and participation, forming a positive cycle of accelerated upward price movement. Even when some selling pressure occurs, it is also a sign of increased liquidity and active exchanges, which is a common structural feature in the early stages of a bull market. If we look at the cryptocurrency market, the mechanism of "short-term gains - realizing profits - boosting sentiment" is consistent with the market pattern before previous long rallies. A new round of capital is gradually confirming the uptrend, and sentiment has shifted from a wait-and-see approach to a more positive one, which constitutes a new wave of momentum driving the bull market. Taken together, the sharp rise in realized profits for short-term holders is not just an indicator of a technical rebound, but also a sign that investor confidence and risk appetite are accelerating. If prices stabilize above the key support, it will lay a solid foundation for the next phase of the bull market.

Short-term selling pressure shows signs of rising, not yet in the overheating stage

The STH Sell-Side Risk Ratio provided by Glassnode shows that the indicator has rebounded sharply from its historical lows, reflecting that some short-term investors have begun to take profits as prices approach historical highs. However, against historical data, the current level of the risk ratio is still significantly lower than the highs seen at previous bull market tops, such as the spikes around April and November 2021, suggesting that the overall market has not yet entered a state of high exuberance or imbalance.

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio is an important indicator of market risk and holder sentiment. An increase in this indicator usually means that investors are selling at large profits (or losses) above cost, with repricing pressures and potential volatility in the market; conversely, a low value suggests that the majority of capital is still changing hands around the cost area and that the market is in a state of relative equilibrium. As can be seen in the current chart, while activity among short-term holders has risen significantly, it is still far from hitting historical extremes, suggesting that profit-taking has not resulted in a full-blown flight to safety or a bubble.

This structural phenomenon is highly instructive for the cryptocurrency market. Although market prices are close to historical highs, the majority of holders have yet to make large-scale arbitrage exits, reflecting overall confidence in the market and supporting the continuation of medium-term upside momentum. Looking at the intersection of capital behavior and sentiment structure, it is more likely that we are in the "mid-correction-reacceleration" phase of the bull market rather than the end. In summary, despite the short-term signs of rising selling pressure, the historical comparison of Sell-Side Risk Ratio shows that sentiment is still mild and not overheated, as is typical of the end of a bull market, leaving room and conditions for prices to reach new highs in the future.

Short-term holders' profits soar 71%, fueling a shift in market sentiment from fear to greed

According to Glassnode's latest data, the percentage of short-term holders (STHs) whose holdings have been in profit in the last 30 days has increased by a whopping 71%, the second highest level on record. The change reflects the rapid price rebound since mid-April, which has significantly repaired the previous capital loss zone, providing significant financial relief and restoring confidence, especially for the short-term, sentiment-sensitive group that entered the market at a high level.

As can be seen in the chart, the recent peak of the red block, which represents the 30-day change in STH's profitability ratio, is close to the top of the previous year's range, underscoring that this rebound has not only boosted prices, but has also materially improved the overall STH holdings structure. This type of rapid earnings recovery has often been accompanied by a flip in sentiment from "extreme fear" to "greed and optimism" in past markets, which in turn attracts more downtrend capital and accelerates the positive feedback loop.

This development has important implications for the cryptocurrency market as a whole: short-term holders are the most sensitive and active trading group in the market, and their asset positions and psychological expectations will easily affect the short-term market trend. When this group turns from floating losses to floating gains, it will directly reduce selling pressure and increase willingness to hold, thus stabilizing the bottom structure, increasing the market's risk tolerance and willingness to go long, and laying a foundation of confidence for further peaks and highs.

Taken together, the surge in STH's profitability is not only the result of price recovery, but also a deep turning signal at the structural and psychological levels of the market, symbolizing that the process of "restoring fear to confidence" has entered an accelerated stage, creating potential upward tension for the market in the future.

Short-term holders are beginning to take profits, not yet reached extreme highs, may be a good opportunity for gradual arbitrage

The Bitcoin market has recently shown a sign of structural improvement: MVRV ratios for both long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) have risen significantly. According to Glassnode, the overall MVRV increased from 1.74 to 2.33, representing an expansion in average unrealized investor gains from positive 74% to positive 133%; LTH MVRV increased from 2.91 to 3.30 (from positive 191% to positive 230%), while STH MVRV rebounded from 0.82 to 1.13, successfully improving the market from a structural point of view. LTH MVRV rose from 2.91 to 3.30 (from positive 191% to positive 230%), while STH MVRV rebounded from 0.82 to 1.13, turning from a deficit of 18% to a surplus of 13%.

The central implication of this phenomenon is that investors of all position cycles have seen their financial structures improve significantly, and the market as a whole is in a state of "book profit spreading". Historically, such MVRV rallies have often been accompanied by a strong rebound in market sentiment. In particular, the psychological turnaround of STH from loss to gain is often a sign that sentiment in the "most sensitive segment of the market" has left the quagmire of fear and is gradually entering a phase of confidence and FOMO symmetry.

For the crypto market, MVRV is not just a financial data, but also a high sentiment indicator. When both STH and LTH are in a state of significant unrealized profits, selling pressure tends to decrease significantly, which in turn favors the formation of a behavioral pattern whereby holders are willing to sell and add to their positions on the low side, further consolidating support and freeing up space for prices to push higher.

In summary, the simultaneous rise in MVRV ratio at various position levels constitutes a positive feedback mechanism for the market to move from "book repair" to "sentiment turnaround" and ultimately to "market restart". When market confidence is no longer constrained by loss pressure, capital will be more willing to enter the market, which will serve as the psychological and liquidity basis for the next stage of the summit attack.

Net UTXO Ratio Releases Successive SELL Signals: Market Enters Overheated Territory

According to CryptoQuant data, the Net UTXO Supply Ratio released four consecutive SELL signals at the end of May 2025, accompanied by a rapid decline from the highs of the indicator, suggesting that the market entered a period of profit-taking as it entered overheated territory. The red circle in the chart shows a typical correction signal at the top of the current market - the UTXO ratio was above 0.95 and the price exceeded US$105,000 before oscillating lower. This is an early sign of a supply-demand imbalance, indicating that a large number of holders have entered an unrealized profit position, which reduces the incentives to hold the currency and leads to increased profit-taking sales. This is an early sign of a supply/demand imbalance.

However, even though technical and chain indicators suggest that the market is overheated in the short term, it does not mean that investors should be "all out". Past experience has shown that an extreme "All-in / All-out" strategy is not only difficult to time the best entry and exit, but can also lead to over-emotionalization and missed opportunities to take lower positions after mid-course corrections. Instead, you should retain some stable currency positions (e.g. USDT / USDC) through asset allocation, so that when the market undergoes a healthy correction, you will be able to respond calmly and take lower positions, thus improving your overall win rate and risk tolerance. Investors should also avoid emotional decision-making and return to a neutral strategy: no over-expansion of positions and no panic liquidation.

To summarize, the continuous sell signals certainly suggest that short-term risks are rising, but it is more important to reinforce the concept of "batch in and out, leaving room for maneuvering" in the deployment of capital. Instead of over-investing funds that you cannot afford, you should maintain a comfortable position ratio and a stable currency allocation, so that you can hold your profits in the midst of shocks and wait for opportunities in the midst of corrections, which is the only way to invest rationally in the long term to ride out the bulls and the bears.

Reject All-in / All-out: Stable Currency Configuration is the Key to Shock Resilience

Although some investors may be worried about a peak in the market due to the recent localized profit-taking signals in the data chain, they may miss out on the main uptrend if they rely on a single indicator or chart to make a hasty decision to go all the way out or all the way in. In fact, the only way to accurately determine the direction of the trend and the risk position is to combine the market's macro situation, structural data and subjective experience.

Looking at the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) chart, the current market is showing some degree of profit realization, but the magnitude is still well below the extreme levels seen at the top of historical bull markets. For example, the chart shows that during the March and November highs of 2021 and 2024, most NRPL peaks exceeded $600 million to $800 million, with extreme profit taking approaching $1 billion. In contrast, the current NRPL levels marked in red are concentrated in the $160 million to $300 million range, which is significantly lower and shows no signs of continued amplification. More importantly, even though the price has recently exceeded US$105,000, the corresponding profit realization has been relatively rational, suggesting that the market is not in a collective frenzy, and that capital flows are still in a healthy cycle.

This phenomenon also reveals that the observed profit taking is more likely to be a short-term correction after a long rally rather than a precursor to a bear market. At a higher level, crypto market volatility is highly sentiment-driven and non-linear. While a single chart can provide directional reference, it is more important to take into account factors such as market sentiment contours, individual trading experience and derivatives leverage structure for a holistic assessment. For example, so far, no multiple reversal signals such as sharp profit expansion, large-scale withdrawal of stabilized currencies or surge in open positions have been observed in the chain, which means that the market structure has not yet been fundamentally disrupted. In conclusion, charts can be used as an aid to investment decision-making, but they should not be the only basis. In the face of a market environment characterized by fragmented information and interlocking signals, the only way to avoid technical pitfalls and keep track of the trend is to integrate and interpret chained data, macro variables and personal experience.

Realized market capitalization at record highs, medium-term structure of the market remains bullish

"Realized Cap" is a measure of the total amount of capital invested in the Bitcoin market that has actually "hit the ground running". Unlike traditional market capitalization (price × total supply), Realized Cap is calculated based on the price at which each Bitcoin last changed hands on the chain, and can more accurately reflect the cost of capital and the level of confidence of the overall market participants. Simply put, the higher the realized market capitalization, the more physical capital is taking over the market supply, reflecting that demand is real and capital is growing.

According to the chart, Bitcoin's market capitalization has risen by about +4.2% over the past month to a new all-time high of $$900 billion, with more than $$150 billion of new capital coming in, suggesting that while some investors in the market have chosen to take profits, the scale of the capital that has absorbed this sell-off is even more impressive. This strong capital inflow implies that the market structure is still healthy and that the potential upside has not yet been fully unlocked.

At the same time, the market is in a more typical late bull market phase, where strong market value growth is often realized in the latter part of the cycle before capital rushes in and prices fluctuate significantly. If the inflows continue, we cannot rule out the possibility that Bitcoin will reach its next high or "current peak" in the medium term, further reflecting the long-term confidence and demand for the asset. In conclusion, the rapid growth in market capitalization and breakthrough capital inflows not only validate the true nature of market demand, but also provide medium-term overweight value support. In a dynamic balance of profit-taking and new capital, the inflow-led side is gradually laying the foundation for a new bull market high.

Conclusion:

Looking back at this week, from the large net outflows from ETFs, to the general pullback in major currencies, to the significant cooling of sentiment indicators, the market is experiencing a classic technical correction, not an end to the long side. If you're feeling panicky and uneasy right now, maybe it's a reflection that you're in a position that's beyond your risk tolerance. A truly healthy investment allocation should not give you sleepless nights during pullbacks, but rather be able to comfortably add to your positions during such moments, pulling down costs and strengthening your positions. Remember: two months from now, when the market has doubled back up and sentiment has turned greedy again, most people will be chasing the highs and missing out on the discounts that are now available. You should be afraid to buy at the highs rather than cover at the lows, and it is during these chaotic times that the value of DCA comes into play. This is not the end of the bull market, but the build-up to another - and only the calm ones will be able to hold the starting line before the next run.

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